Daniel Birks

Sam Relins, Daniel Birks, Charlie Lloyd

Objectives: Compare qualitative coding of instruction tuned large language models (IT-LLMs) against human coders in classifying the presence or absence of vulnerability in routinely collected unstructured text that describes police-public interactions. Evaluate potential bias in IT-LLM codings. Methods: Analyzing publicly available text narratives of police-public interactions recorded by Boston Police Department, we provide humans and IT-LLMs with qualitative labelling codebooks and compare labels generated by both, seeking to identify situations associated with (i) mental ill health; (ii) substance misuse; (iii) alcohol dependence; and (iv) homelessness. We explore multiple prompting strategies and model sizes, and the variability of labels generated by repeated prompts. Additionally, to explore model bias, we utilize counterfactual methods to assess the impact of two protected characteristics - race and gender - on IT-LLM classification. Results: Results demonstrate that IT-LLMs can effectively support human qualitative coding of police incident narratives. While there is some disagreement between LLM and human generated labels, IT-LLMs are highly effective at screening narratives where no vulnerabilities are present, potentially vastly reducing the requirement for human coding. Counterfactual analyses demonstrate that manipulations to both gender and race of individuals described in narratives have very limited effects on IT-LLM classifications beyond those expected by chance. Conclusions: IT-LLMs offer effective means to augment human qualitative coding in a way that requires much lower levels of resource to analyze large unstructured datasets. Moreover, they encourage specificity in qualitative coding, promote transparency, and provide the opportunity for more standardized, replicable approaches to analyzing large free-text police data sources.

Sedar Olmez, Dan Birks, Alison Heppenstall

Capturing and simulating intelligent adaptive behaviours within spatially explicit individual-based models remains an ongoing challenge for researchers. While an ever-increasing abundance of real-world behavioural data are collected, few approaches exist that can quantify and formalise key individual behaviours and how they change over space and time. Consequently, commonly used agent decision-making frameworks, such as event-condition-action rules, are often required to focus only on a narrow range of behaviours. We argue that these behavioural frameworks often do not reflect real-world scenarios and fail to capture how behaviours can develop in response to stimuli. There has been an increased interest in Machine Learning methods and their potential to simulate intelligent adaptive behaviours in recent years. One method that is beginning to gain traction in this area is Reinforcement Learning (RL). This paper explores how RL can be applied to create emergent agent behaviours using a simple predator-prey Agent-Based Model (ABM). Running a series of simulations, we demonstrate that agents trained using the novel Proximal Policy Optimisation (PPO) algorithm behave in ways that exhibit properties of real-world intelligent adaptive behaviours, such as hiding, evading and foraging.