Mohammad Reza Hesamzadeh

Saeed Mohammadi, Mohammad Reza Hesamzadeh

The intraday (ID) electricity market has received an increasing attention in the recent EU electricity-market discussions. This is partly because the uncertainty in the underlying power system is growing and the ID market provides an adjustment platform to deal with such uncertainties. Hence, market participants need a proper ID market price model to optimally adjust their positions by trading in the market. Inadequate historical data for ID market price makes it more challenging to model. This paper proposes long short-term memory, deep convolutional generative adversarial networks, and No-U-Turn sampler algorithms to model ID market prices. Our proposed econometric ID market price models are applied to the Nordic ID price data and their promising performance are illustrated.

Saeed Mohammadi, Mohammad Reza Hesamzadeh

Prosumer operators are dealing with extensive challenges to participate in short-term electricity markets while taking uncertainties into account. Challenges such as variation in demand, solar energy, wind power, and electricity prices as well as faster response time in intraday electricity markets. Machine learning approaches could resolve these challenges due to their ability to continuous learning of complex relations and providing a real-time response. Such approaches are applicable with presence of the high performance computing and big data. To tackle these challenges, a Markov decision process is proposed and solved with a reinforcement learning algorithm with proper observations and actions employing tabular Q-learning. Trained agent converges to a policy which is similar to the global optimal solution. It increases the prosumer's profit by 13.39% compared to the well-known stochastic optimization approach.

Othmane Mazhar, Cristian R. Rojas, Carlo Fischione et al.

We address the new problem of estimating a piece-wise constant signal with the purpose of detecting its change points and the levels of clusters. Our approach is to model it as a nonparametric penalized least square model selection on a family of models indexed over the collection of partitions of the design points and propose a computationally efficient algorithm to approximately solve it. Statistically, minimizing such a penalized criterion yields an approximation to the maximum a posteriori probability (MAP) estimator. The criterion is then analyzed and an oracle inequality is derived using a Gaussian concentration inequality. The oracle inequality is used to derive on one hand conditions for consistency and on the other hand an adaptive upper bound on the expected square risk of the estimator, which statistically motivates our approximation. Finally, we apply our algorithm to simulated data to experimentally validate the statistical guarantees and illustrate its behavior.