Ray Coden Mercurius

Younwoo Choi, Ray Coden Mercurius, Soheil Mohamad Alizadeh Shabestary et al.

Road user trajectory prediction in dynamic environments is a challenging but crucial task for various applications, such as autonomous driving. One of the main challenges in this domain is the multimodal nature of future trajectories stemming from the unknown yet diverse intentions of the agents. Diffusion models have shown to be very effective in capturing such stochasticity in prediction tasks. However, these models involve many computationally expensive denoising steps and sampling operations that make them a less desirable option for real-time safety-critical applications. To this end, we present a novel framework that leverages diffusion models for predicting future trajectories in a computationally efficient manner. To minimize the computational bottlenecks in iterative sampling, we employ an efficient sampling mechanism that allows us to maximize the number of sampled trajectories for improved accuracy while maintaining inference time in real time. Moreover, we propose a scoring mechanism to select the most plausible trajectories by assigning relative ranks. We show the effectiveness of our approach by conducting empirical evaluations on common pedestrian (UCY/ETH) and autonomous driving (nuScenes) benchmark datasets on which our model achieves state-of-the-art performance on several subsets and metrics.

Ehsan Ahmadi, Ray Mercurius, Soheil Alizadeh et al.

Trajectory prediction models in autonomous driving are vulnerable to perturbations from non-causal agents whose actions should not affect the ego-agent's behavior. Such perturbations can lead to incorrect predictions of other agents' trajectories, potentially compromising the safety and efficiency of the ego-vehicle's decision-making process. Motivated by this challenge, we propose $\textit{Causal tRajecTory predICtion}$ $\textbf{(CRiTIC)}$, a novel model that utilizes a $\textit{Causal Discovery Network}$ to identify inter-agent causal relations over a window of past time steps. To incorporate discovered causal relationships, we propose a novel $\textit{Causal Attention Gating}$ mechanism to selectively filter information in the proposed Transformer-based architecture. We conduct extensive experiments on two autonomous driving benchmark datasets to evaluate the robustness of our model against non-causal perturbations and its generalization capacity. Our results indicate that the robustness of predictions can be improved by up to $\textbf{54%}$ without a significant detriment to prediction accuracy. Lastly, we demonstrate the superior domain generalizability of the proposed model, which achieves up to $\textbf{29%}$ improvement in cross-domain performance. These results underscore the potential of our model to enhance both robustness and generalization capacity for trajectory prediction in diverse autonomous driving domains. Further details can be found on our project page: https://ehsan-ami.github.io/critic.

Ray Coden Mercurius, Ehsan Ahmadi, Soheil Mohamad Alizadeh Shabestary et al.

Accurate prediction of pedestrians' future motions is critical for intelligent driving systems. Developing models for this task requires rich datasets containing diverse sets of samples. However, the existing naturalistic trajectory prediction datasets are generally imbalanced in favor of simpler samples and lack challenging scenarios. Such a long-tail effect causes prediction models to underperform on the tail portion of the data distribution containing safety-critical scenarios. Previous methods tackle the long-tail problem using methods such as contrastive learning and class-conditioned hypernetworks. These approaches, however, are not modular and cannot be applied to many machine learning architectures. In this work, we propose a modular model-agnostic framework for trajectory prediction that leverages a specialized mixture of experts. In our approach, each expert is trained with a specialized skill with respect to a particular part of the data. To produce predictions, we utilise a router network that selects the best expert by generating relative confidence scores. We conduct experimentation on common pedestrian trajectory prediction datasets and show that our method improves performance on long-tail scenarios. We further conduct ablation studies to highlight the contribution of different proposed components.

Xiaocan Li, Ray Coden Mercurius, Ayal Taitler et al.

Perimeter control maintains high traffic efficiency within protected regions by controlling transfer flows among regions to ensure that their traffic densities are below critical values. Existing approaches can be categorized as either model-based or model-free, depending on whether they rely on network transmission models (NTMs) and macroscopic fundamental diagrams (MFDs). Although model-based approaches are more data efficient and have performance guarantees, they are inherently prone to model bias and inaccuracy. For example, NTMs often become imprecise for a large number of protected regions, and MFDs can exhibit scatter and hysteresis that are not captured in existing model-based works. Moreover, no existing studies have employed reinforcement learning for homogeneous flow rate optimization in microscopic simulation, where spatial characteristics, vehicle-level information, and metering realizations -- often overlooked in macroscopic simulations -- are taken into account. To circumvent issues of model-based approaches and macroscopic simulation, we propose a model-free deep reinforcement learning approach that optimizes the flow rate homogeneously at the perimeter at the microscopic level. Results demonstrate that our model-free reinforcement learning approach without any knowledge of NTMs or MFDs can compete and match the performance of a model-based approach, and exhibits enhanced generalizability and scalability.