Masha Itkina

Masha Itkina, Mykel J. Kochenderfer

Although neural networks have seen tremendous success as predictive models in a variety of domains, they can be overly confident in their predictions on out-of-distribution (OOD) data. To be viable for safety-critical applications, like autonomous vehicles, neural networks must accurately estimate their epistemic or model uncertainty, achieving a level of system self-awareness. Techniques for epistemic uncertainty quantification often require OOD data during training or multiple neural network forward passes during inference. These approaches may not be suitable for real-time performance on high-dimensional inputs. Furthermore, existing methods lack interpretability of the estimated uncertainty, which limits their usefulness both to engineers for further system development and to downstream modules in the autonomy stack. We propose the use of evidential deep learning to estimate the epistemic uncertainty over a low-dimensional, interpretable latent space in a trajectory prediction setting. We introduce an interpretable paradigm for trajectory prediction that distributes the uncertainty among the semantic concepts: past agent behavior, road structure, and social context. We validate our approach on real-world autonomous driving data, demonstrating superior performance over state-of-the-art baselines. Our code is available at: https://github.com/sisl/InterpretableSelfAwarePrediction.

Ye-Ji Mun, Masha Itkina, Shuijing Liu et al.

Autonomous navigation in crowded spaces poses a challenge for mobile robots due to the highly dynamic, partially observable environment. Occlusions are highly prevalent in such settings due to a limited sensor field of view and obstructing human agents. Previous work has shown that observed interactive behaviors of human agents can be used to estimate potential obstacles despite occlusions. We propose integrating such social inference techniques into the planning pipeline. We use a variational autoencoder with a specially designed loss function to learn representations that are meaningful for occlusion inference. This work adopts a deep reinforcement learning approach to incorporate the learned representation for occlusion-aware planning. In simulation, our occlusion-aware policy achieves comparable collision avoidance performance to fully observable navigation by estimating agents in occluded spaces. We demonstrate successful policy transfer from simulation to the real-world Turtlebot 2i. To the best of our knowledge, this work is the first to use social occlusion inference for crowd navigation.

Harrison Delecki, Masha Itkina, Bernard Lange et al.

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) rely on environment perception and behavior prediction to reason about agents in their surroundings. These perception systems must be robust to adverse weather such as rain, fog, and snow. However, validation of these systems is challenging due to their complexity and dependence on observation histories. This paper presents a method for characterizing failures of LiDAR-based perception systems for AVs in adverse weather conditions. We develop a methodology based in reinforcement learning to find likely failures in object tracking and trajectory prediction due to sequences of disturbances. We apply disturbances using a physics-based data augmentation technique for simulating LiDAR point clouds in adverse weather conditions. Experiments performed across a wide range of driving scenarios from a real-world driving dataset show that our proposed approach finds high likelihood failures with smaller input disturbances compared to baselines while remaining computationally tractable. Identified failures can inform future development of robust perception systems for AVs.

Bernard Lange, Masha Itkina, Mykel J. Kochenderfer

Environment prediction frameworks are integral for autonomous vehicles, enabling safe navigation in dynamic environments. LiDAR generated occupancy grid maps (L-OGMs) offer a robust bird's eye-view scene representation that facilitates joint scene predictions without relying on manual labeling unlike commonly used trajectory prediction frameworks. Prior approaches have optimized deterministic L-OGM prediction architectures directly in grid cell space. While these methods have achieved some degree of success in prediction, they occasionally grapple with unrealistic and incorrect predictions. We claim that the quality and realism of the forecasted occupancy grids can be enhanced with the use of generative models. We propose a framework that decouples occupancy prediction into: representation learning and stochastic prediction within the learned latent space. Our approach allows for conditioning the model on other available sensor modalities such as RGB-cameras and high definition maps. We demonstrate that our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance and is readily transferable between different robotic platforms on the real-world NuScenes, Waymo Open, and a custom dataset we collected on an experimental vehicle platform.

Bernard Lange, Masha Itkina, Jiachen Li et al.

Environment prediction frameworks are critical for the safe navigation of autonomous vehicles (AVs) in dynamic settings. LiDAR-generated occupancy grid maps (L-OGMs) offer a robust bird's-eye view for the scene representation, enabling self-supervised joint scene predictions while exhibiting resilience to partial observability and perception detection failures. Prior approaches have focused on deterministic L-OGM prediction architectures within the grid cell space. While these methods have seen some success, they frequently produce unrealistic predictions and fail to capture the stochastic nature of the environment. Additionally, they do not effectively integrate additional sensor modalities present in AVs. Our proposed framework, Latent Occupancy Prediction (LOPR), performs stochastic L-OGM prediction in the latent space of a generative architecture and allows for conditioning on RGB cameras, maps, and planned trajectories. We decode predictions using either a single-step decoder, which provides high-quality predictions in real-time, or a diffusion-based batch decoder, which can further refine the decoded frames to address temporal consistency issues and reduce compression losses. Our experiments on the nuScenes and Waymo Open datasets show that all variants of our approach qualitatively and quantitatively outperform prior approaches.

Joseph A. Vincent, Haruki Nishimura, Masha Itkina et al.

With the rise of stochastic generative models in robot policy learning, end-to-end visuomotor policies are increasingly successful at solving complex tasks by learning from human demonstrations. Nevertheless, since real-world evaluation costs afford users only a small number of policy rollouts, it remains a challenge to accurately gauge the performance of such policies. This is exacerbated by distribution shifts causing unpredictable changes in performance during deployment. To rigorously evaluate behavior cloning policies, we present a framework that provides a tight lower-bound on robot performance in an arbitrary environment, using a minimal number of experimental policy rollouts. Notably, by applying the standard stochastic ordering to robot performance distributions, we provide a worst-case bound on the entire distribution of performance (via bounds on the cumulative distribution function) for a given task. We build upon established statistical results to ensure that the bounds hold with a user-specified confidence level and tightness, and are constructed from as few policy rollouts as possible. In experiments we evaluate policies for visuomotor manipulation in both simulation and hardware. Specifically, we (i) empirically validate the guarantees of the bounds in simulated manipulation settings, (ii) find the degree to which a learned policy deployed on hardware generalizes to new real-world environments, and (iii) rigorously compare two policies tested in out-of-distribution settings. Our experimental data, code, and implementation of confidence bounds are open-source.

David Snyder, Apurva Badithela, Nikolai Matni et al.

Generalist robot manipulation policies are becoming increasingly capable, but are limited in evaluation to a small number of hardware rollouts. This strong resource constraint in real-world testing necessitates both more informative performance measures and reliable and efficient evaluation procedures to properly assess model capabilities and benchmark progress in the field. This work presents a novel framework for robot policy comparison that is sample-efficient, statistically rigorous, and applicable to a broad set of evaluation metrics used in practice. Based on safe, anytime-valid inference (SAVI), our test procedure is sequential, allowing the evaluator to stop early when sufficient statistical evidence has accumulated to reach a decision at a pre-specified level of confidence. Unlike previous work developed for binary success, our unified approach addresses a wide range of informative metrics: from discrete partial credit task progress to continuous measures of episodic reward or trajectory smoothness, spanning both parametric and nonparametric comparison problems. Through extensive validation on simulated and real-world evaluation data, we demonstrate up to 70% reduction in evaluation burden compared to standard batch methods and up to 50% reduction compared to state-of-the-art sequential procedures designed for binary outcomes, with no loss of statistical rigor. Notably, our empirical results show that competing policies can be separated more quickly when using fine-grained task progress than binary success metrics.

Masha Itkina, Ye-Ji Mun, Katherine Driggs-Campbell et al.

Autonomous vehicles must reason about spatial occlusions in urban environments to ensure safety without being overly cautious. Prior work explored occlusion inference from observed social behaviors of road agents, hence treating people as sensors. Inferring occupancy from agent behaviors is an inherently multimodal problem; a driver may behave similarly for different occupancy patterns ahead of them (e.g., a driver may move at constant speed in traffic or on an open road). Past work, however, does not account for this multimodality, thus neglecting to model this source of aleatoric uncertainty in the relationship between driver behaviors and their environment. We propose an occlusion inference method that characterizes observed behaviors of human agents as sensor measurements, and fuses them with those from a standard sensor suite. To capture the aleatoric uncertainty, we train a conditional variational autoencoder with a discrete latent space to learn a multimodal mapping from observed driver trajectories to an occupancy grid representation of the view ahead of the driver. Our method handles multi-agent scenarios, combining measurements from multiple observed drivers using evidential theory to solve the sensor fusion problem. Our approach is validated on a cluttered, real-world intersection, outperforming baselines and demonstrating real-time capable performance. Our code is available at https://github.com/sisl/MultiAgentVariationalOcclusionInference .

Allen Z. Ren, Jaden Clark, Anushri Dixit et al.

We consider the problem of Embodied Question Answering (EQA), which refers to settings where an embodied agent such as a robot needs to actively explore an environment to gather information until it is confident about the answer to a question. In this work, we leverage the strong semantic reasoning capabilities of large vision-language models (VLMs) to efficiently explore and answer such questions. However, there are two main challenges when using VLMs in EQA: they do not have an internal memory for mapping the scene to be able to plan how to explore over time, and their confidence can be miscalibrated and can cause the robot to prematurely stop exploration or over-explore. We propose a method that first builds a semantic map of the scene based on depth information and via visual prompting of a VLM - leveraging its vast knowledge of relevant regions of the scene for exploration. Next, we use conformal prediction to calibrate the VLM's question answering confidence, allowing the robot to know when to stop exploration - leading to a more calibrated and efficient exploration strategy. To test our framework in simulation, we also contribute a new EQA dataset with diverse, realistic human-robot scenarios and scenes built upon the Habitat-Matterport 3D Research Dataset (HM3D). Both simulated and real robot experiments show our proposed approach improves the performance and efficiency over baselines that do no leverage VLM for exploration or do not calibrate its confidence. Webpage with experiment videos and code: https://explore-eqa.github.io/

Chen Xu, Tony Khuong Nguyen, Emma Dixon et al.

Recent years have witnessed impressive robotic manipulation systems driven by advances in imitation learning and generative modeling, such as diffusion- and flow-based approaches. As robot policy performance increases, so does the complexity and time horizon of achievable tasks, inducing unexpected and diverse failure modes that are difficult to predict a priori. To enable trustworthy policy deployment in safety-critical human environments, reliable runtime failure detection becomes important during policy inference. However, most existing failure detection approaches rely on prior knowledge of failure modes and require failure data during training, which imposes a significant challenge in practicality and scalability. In response to these limitations, we present FAIL-Detect, a modular two-stage approach for failure detection in imitation learning-based robotic manipulation. To accurately identify failures from successful training data alone, we frame the problem as sequential out-of-distribution (OOD) detection. We first distill policy inputs and outputs into scalar signals that correlate with policy failures and capture epistemic uncertainty. FAIL-Detect then employs conformal prediction (CP) as a versatile framework for uncertainty quantification with statistical guarantees. Empirically, we thoroughly investigate both learned and post-hoc scalar signal candidates on diverse robotic manipulation tasks. Our experiments show learned signals to be mostly consistently effective, particularly when using our novel flow-based density estimator. Furthermore, our method detects failures more accurately and faster than state-of-the-art (SOTA) failure detection baselines. These results highlight the potential of FAIL-Detect to enhance the safety and reliability of imitation learning-based robotic systems as they progress toward real-world deployment.

Qiao Gu, Yuanliang Ju, Shengxiang Sun et al.

While vision-language-action models (VLAs) have shown promising robotic behaviors across a diverse set of manipulation tasks, they achieve limited success rates when deployed on novel tasks out of the box. To allow these policies to safely interact with their environments, we need a failure detector that gives a timely alert such that the robot can stop, backtrack, or ask for help. However, existing failure detectors are trained and tested only on one or a few specific tasks, while generalist VLAs require the detector to generalize and detect failures also in unseen tasks and novel environments. In this paper, we introduce the multitask failure detection problem and propose SAFE, a failure detector for generalist robot policies such as VLAs. We analyze the VLA feature space and find that VLAs have sufficient high-level knowledge about task success and failure, which is generic across different tasks. Based on this insight, we design SAFE to learn from VLA internal features and predict a single scalar indicating the likelihood of task failure. SAFE is trained on both successful and failed rollouts and is evaluated on unseen tasks. SAFE is compatible with different policy architectures. We test it on OpenVLA, $π_0$, and $π_0$-FAST in both simulated and real-world environments extensively. We compare SAFE with diverse baselines and show that SAFE achieves state-of-the-art failure detection performance and the best trade-off between accuracy and detection time using conformal prediction. More qualitative results and code can be found at the project webpage: https://vla-safe.github.io/

Christopher Agia, Rohan Sinha, Jingyun Yang et al.

In robot imitation learning, policy performance is tightly coupled with the quality and composition of the demonstration data. Yet, developing a precise understanding of how individual demonstrations contribute to downstream outcomes - such as closed-loop task success or failure - remains a persistent challenge. We propose CUPID, a robot data curation method based on a novel influence function-theoretic formulation for imitation learning policies. Given a set of evaluation rollouts, CUPID estimates the influence of each training demonstration on the policy's expected return. This enables ranking and selection of demonstrations according to their impact on the policy's closed-loop performance. We use CUPID to curate data by 1) filtering out training demonstrations that harm policy performance and 2) subselecting newly collected trajectories that will most improve the policy. Extensive simulated and hardware experiments show that our approach consistently identifies which data drives test-time performance. For example, training with less than 33% of curated data can yield state-of-the-art diffusion policies on the simulated RoboMimic benchmark, with similar gains observed in hardware. Furthermore, hardware experiments show that our method can identify robust strategies under distribution shift, isolate spurious correlations, and even enhance the post-training of generalist robot policies. Videos and code are made available at: https://cupid-curation.github.io.

Kyle B. Hatch, Ashwin Balakrishna, Oier Mees et al.

Image and video generative models that are pre-trained on Internet-scale data can greatly increase the generalization capacity of robot learning systems. These models can function as high-level planners, generating intermediate subgoals for low-level goal-conditioned policies to reach. However, the performance of these systems can be greatly bottlenecked by the interface between generative models and low-level controllers. For example, generative models may predict photorealistic yet physically infeasible frames that confuse low-level policies. Low-level policies may also be sensitive to subtle visual artifacts in generated goal images. This paper addresses these two facets of generalization, providing an interface to effectively "glue together" language-conditioned image or video prediction models with low-level goal-conditioned policies. Our method, Generative Hierarchical Imitation Learning-Glue (GHIL-Glue), filters out subgoals that do not lead to task progress and improves the robustness of goal-conditioned policies to generated subgoals with harmful visual artifacts. We find in extensive experiments in both simulated and real environments that GHIL-Glue achieves a 25% improvement across several hierarchical models that leverage generative subgoals, achieving a new state-of-the-art on the CALVIN simulation benchmark for policies using observations from a single RGB camera. GHIL-Glue also outperforms other generalist robot policies across 3/4 language-conditioned manipulation tasks testing zero-shot generalization in physical experiments.

Hossein Goli, Michael Gimelfarb, Nathan Samuel de Lara et al.

Off-policy evaluation (OPE) estimates the performance of a target policy using offline data collected from a behavior policy, and is crucial in domains such as robotics or healthcare where direct interaction with the environment is costly or unsafe. Existing OPE methods are ineffective for high-dimensional, long-horizon problems, due to exponential blow-ups in variance from importance weighting or compounding errors from learned dynamics models. To address these challenges, we propose STITCH-OPE, a model-based generative framework that leverages denoising diffusion for long-horizon OPE in high-dimensional state and action spaces. Starting with a diffusion model pre-trained on the behavior data, STITCH-OPE generates synthetic trajectories from the target policy by guiding the denoising process using the score function of the target policy. STITCH-OPE proposes two technical innovations that make it advantageous for OPE: (1) prevents over-regularization by subtracting the score of the behavior policy during guidance, and (2) generates long-horizon trajectories by stitching partial trajectories together end-to-end. We provide a theoretical guarantee that under mild assumptions, these modifications result in an exponential reduction in variance versus long-horizon trajectory diffusion. Experiments on the D4RL and OpenAI Gym benchmarks show substantial improvement in mean squared error, correlation, and regret metrics compared to state-of-the-art OPE methods.

Kevin Huang, Rosario Scalise, Cleah Winston et al.

Imitation learning has proven effective for training robots to perform complex tasks from expert human demonstrations. However, it remains limited by its reliance on high-quality, task-specific data, restricting adaptability to the diverse range of real-world object configurations and scenarios. In contrast, non-expert data -- such as play data, suboptimal demonstrations, partial task completions, or rollouts from suboptimal policies -- can offer broader coverage and lower collection costs. However, conventional imitation learning approaches fail to utilize this data effectively. To address these challenges, we posit that with right design decisions, offline reinforcement learning can be used as a tool to harness non-expert data to enhance the performance of imitation learning policies. We show that while standard offline RL approaches can be ineffective at actually leveraging non-expert data under the sparse data coverage settings typically encountered in the real world, simple algorithmic modifications can allow for the utilization of this data, without significant additional assumptions. Our approach shows that broadening the support of the policy distribution can allow imitation algorithms augmented by offline RL to solve tasks robustly, showing considerably enhanced recovery and generalization behavior. In manipulation tasks, these innovations significantly increase the range of initial conditions where learned policies are successful when non-expert data is incorporated. Moreover, we show that these methods are able to leverage all collected data, including partial or suboptimal demonstrations, to bolster task-directed policy performance. This underscores the importance of algorithmic techniques for using non-expert data for robust policy learning in robotics. Website: https://uwrobotlearning.github.io/RISE-offline/

Phil Chen, Masha Itkina, Ransalu Senanayake et al.

Many applications of generative models rely on the marginalization of their high-dimensional output probability distributions. Normalization functions that yield sparse probability distributions can make exact marginalization more computationally tractable. However, sparse normalization functions usually require alternative loss functions for training since the log-likelihood is undefined for sparse probability distributions. Furthermore, many sparse normalization functions often collapse the multimodality of distributions. In this work, we present $\textit{ev-softmax}$, a sparse normalization function that preserves the multimodality of probability distributions. We derive its properties, including its gradient in closed-form, and introduce a continuous family of approximations to $\textit{ev-softmax}$ that have full support and can be trained with probabilistic loss functions such as negative log-likelihood and Kullback-Leibler divergence. We evaluate our method on a variety of generative models, including variational autoencoders and auto-regressive architectures. Our method outperforms existing dense and sparse normalization techniques in distributional accuracy. We demonstrate that $\textit{ev-softmax}$ successfully reduces the dimensionality of probability distributions while maintaining multimodality.

Maneekwan Toyungyernsub, Masha Itkina, Ransalu Senanayake et al.

Predicting the future occupancy state of an environment is important to enable informed decisions for autonomous vehicles. Common challenges in occupancy prediction include vanishing dynamic objects and blurred predictions, especially for long prediction horizons. In this work, we propose a double-prong neural network architecture to predict the spatiotemporal evolution of the occupancy state. One prong is dedicated to predicting how the static environment will be observed by the moving ego vehicle. The other prong predicts how the dynamic objects in the environment will move. Experiments conducted on the real-world Waymo Open Dataset indicate that the fused output of the two prongs is capable of retaining dynamic objects and reducing blurriness in the predictions for longer time horizons than baseline models.

Julia Nitsch, Masha Itkina, Ransalu Senanayake et al.

Neural networks (NNs) are widely used for object classification in autonomous driving. However, NNs can fail on input data not well represented by the training dataset, known as out-of-distribution (OOD) data. A mechanism to detect OOD samples is important for safety-critical applications, such as automotive perception, to trigger a safe fallback mode. NNs often rely on softmax normalization for confidence estimation, which can lead to high confidences being assigned to OOD samples, thus hindering the detection of failures. This paper presents a method for determining whether inputs are OOD, which does not require OOD data during training and does not increase the computational cost of inference. The latter property is especially important in automotive applications with limited computational resources and real-time constraints. Our proposed approach outperforms state-of-the-art methods on real-world automotive datasets.

Bernard Lange, Masha Itkina, Mykel J. Kochenderfer

Safe and proactive planning in robotic systems generally requires accurate predictions of the environment. Prior work on environment prediction applied video frame prediction techniques to bird's-eye view environment representations, such as occupancy grids. ConvLSTM-based frameworks used previously often result in significant blurring and vanishing of moving objects, thus hindering their applicability for use in safety-critical applications. In this work, we propose two extensions to the ConvLSTM to address these issues. We present the Temporal Attention Augmented ConvLSTM (TAAConvLSTM) and Self-Attention Augmented ConvLSTM (SAAConvLSTM) frameworks for spatiotemporal occupancy prediction, and demonstrate improved performance over baseline architectures on the real-world KITTI and Waymo datasets.

Masha Itkina, Boris Ivanovic, Ransalu Senanayake et al.

Discrete latent spaces in variational autoencoders have been shown to effectively capture the data distribution for many real-world problems such as natural language understanding, human intent prediction, and visual scene representation. However, discrete latent spaces need to be sufficiently large to capture the complexities of real-world data, rendering downstream tasks computationally challenging. For instance, performing motion planning in a high-dimensional latent representation of the environment could be intractable. We consider the problem of sparsifying the discrete latent space of a trained conditional variational autoencoder, while preserving its learned multimodality. As a post hoc latent space reduction technique, we use evidential theory to identify the latent classes that receive direct evidence from a particular input condition and filter out those that do not. Experiments on diverse tasks, such as image generation and human behavior prediction, demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed technique at reducing the discrete latent sample space size of a model while maintaining its learned multimodality.

Masha Itkina, Katherine Driggs-Campbell, Mykel J. Kochenderfer

A key challenge for autonomous driving is safe trajectory planning in cluttered, urban environments with dynamic obstacles, such as pedestrians, bicyclists, and other vehicles. A reliable prediction of the future environment, including the behavior of dynamic agents, would allow planning algorithms to proactively generate a trajectory in response to a rapidly changing environment. We present a novel framework that predicts the future occupancy state of the local environment surrounding an autonomous agent by learning a motion model from occupancy grid data using a neural network. We take advantage of the temporal structure of the grid data by utilizing a convolutional long-short term memory network in the form of the PredNet architecture. This method is validated on the KITTI dataset and demonstrates higher accuracy and better predictive power than baseline methods.