Andres Gonzalez-Mancera

Nelson Salazar-Pena, Alejandra Tabares, Andres Gonzalez-Mancera

This paper introduces a novel, open-source MARL simulation framework for studying implicit cooperation in LEMs, modeled as a decentralized partially observable Markov decision process and implemented as a Gymnasium environment for MARL. Our framework features a modular market platform with plug-and-play clearing mechanisms, physically constrained agent models (including battery storage), a realistic grid network, and a comprehensive analytics suite to evaluate emergent coordination. The main contribution is a novel method to foster implicit cooperation, where agents' observations and rewards are enhanced with system-level key performance indicators to enable them to independently learn strategies that benefit the entire system and aim for collectively beneficial outcomes without explicit communication. Through representative case studies (available in a dedicated GitHub repository in https://github.com/salazarna/marlem, we show the framework's ability to analyze how different market configurations (such as varying storage deployment) impact system performance. This illustrates its potential to facilitate emergent coordination, improve market efficiency, and strengthen grid stability. The proposed simulation framework is a flexible, extensible, and reproducible tool for researchers and practitioners to design, test, and validate strategies for future intelligent, decentralized energy systems.

Nelson Salazar-Pena, Alejandra Tabares, Andres Gonzalez-Mancera

The intermittent nature of photovoltaic (PV) solar energy, driven by variable weather, leads to power losses of 10-70% and an average energy production decrease of 25%. Accurate loss characterization and fault detection are crucial for reliable PV system performance and efficiency, integrating this data into control signal monitoring systems. Computational modeling of PV systems supports technological, economic, and performance analyses, but current models are often rigid, limiting advanced performance optimization and innovation. Conventional fault detection strategies are costly and often yield unreliable results due to complex data signal profiles. Artificial intelligence (AI), especially machine learning algorithms, offers improved fault detection by analyzing relationships between input parameters (e.g., meteorological and electrical) and output metrics (e.g., production). Once trained, these models can effectively identify faults by detecting deviations from expected performance. This research presents a computational model using the PVlib library in Python, incorporating a dynamic loss quantification algorithm that processes meteorological, operational, and technical data. An artificial neural network (ANN) trained on synthetic datasets with a five-minute resolution simulates real-world PV system faults. A dynamic threshold definition for fault detection is based on historical data from a PV system at Universidad de los Andes. Key contributions include: (i) a PV system model with a mean absolute error of 6.0% in daily energy estimation; (ii) dynamic loss quantification without specialized equipment; (iii) an AI-based algorithm for technical parameter estimation, avoiding special monitoring devices; and (iv) a fault detection model achieving 82.2% mean accuracy and 92.6% maximum accuracy.

Nelson Salazar-Pena, Alejandra Tabares, Andres Gonzalez-Mancera

This paper proposes implicit cooperation, a framework enabling decentralized agents to approximate optimal coordination in local energy markets without explicit peer-to-peer communication. We formulate the problem as a decentralized partially observable Markov decision problem that is solved through a multi-agent reinforcement learning task in which agents use stigmergic signals (key performance indicators at the system level) to infer and react to global states. Through a 3x3 factorial design on an IEEE 34-node topology, we evaluated three training paradigms (CTCE, CTDE, DTDE) and three algorithms (PPO, APPO, SAC). Results identify APPO-DTDE as the optimal configuration, achieving a coordination score of 91.7% relative to the theoretical centralized benchmark (CTCE). However, a critical trade-off emerges between efficiency and stability: while the centralized benchmark maximizes allocative efficiency with a peer-to-peer trade ratio of 0.6, the fully decentralized approach (DTDE) demonstrates superior physical stability. Specifically, DTDE reduces the variance of grid balance by 31% compared to hybrid architectures, establishing a highly predictable, import-biased load profile that simplifies grid regulation. Furthermore, topological analysis reveals emergent spatial clustering, where decentralized agents self-organize into stable trading communities to minimize congestion penalties. While SAC excelled in hybrid settings, it failed in decentralized environments due to entropy-driven instability. This research proves that stigmergic signaling provides sufficient context for complex grid coordination, offering a robust, privacy-preserving alternative to expensive centralized communication infrastructure.

Nelson Salazar-Pena, Adolfo Palma-Vergara, Mateo Montes-Vera et al.

The prediction of solar irradiance enhances reliability in photovoltaic (PV) solar plant generation and grid integration. In Colombia, PV plants face penalties if energy production deviates beyond governmental thresholds from intraday market offers. This research employs Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Bidirectional-LSTM (Bi-LSTM) models, utilizing meteorological data from a PV plant in El Paso, Cesar, Colombia, to predict solar irradiance with a 6-hour horizon and 10-minute resolution. While Bi-LSTM showed superior performance, the LSTM model achieved comparable results with significantly reduced training time (6 hours versus 18 hours), making it computationally advantageous. The LSTM predictions were averaged to create an hourly resolution model, evaluated using Mean Absolute Error, Root-Mean-Square Error, Normalized Root-Mean-Square Error, and Mean Absolute Percentage Error metrics. Comparison with the Global Forecast System (GFS) revealed similar performance, with both models effectively capturing daily solar irradiance patterns. The forecast model integrates with an Object-Oriented power production model, enabling accurate energy offers in the intraday market while minimizing penalty costs.