Paulius Rauba

Fergus Imrie, Paulius Rauba, Mihaela van der Schaar

Digital health tools have the potential to significantly improve the delivery of healthcare services. However, their adoption remains comparatively limited due, in part, to challenges surrounding usability and trust. Large Language Models (LLMs) have emerged as general-purpose models with the ability to process complex information and produce human-quality text, presenting a wealth of potential applications in healthcare. Directly applying LLMs in clinical settings is not straightforward, however, with LLMs susceptible to providing inconsistent or nonsensical answers. We demonstrate how LLM-based systems can utilize external tools and provide a novel interface between clinicians and digital technologies. This enhances the utility and practical impact of digital healthcare tools and AI models while addressing current issues with using LLMs in clinical settings such as hallucinations. We illustrate LLM-based interfaces with the example of cardiovascular disease risk prediction. We develop a new prognostic tool using automated machine learning and demonstrate how LLMs can provide a unique interface to both our model and existing risk scores, highlighting the benefit compared to traditional interfaces for digital tools.

Paulius Rauba, Nabeel Seedat, Max Ruiz Luyten et al.

The predominant de facto paradigm of testing ML models relies on either using only held-out data to compute aggregate evaluation metrics or by assessing the performance on different subgroups. However, such data-only testing methods operate under the restrictive assumption that the available empirical data is the sole input for testing ML models, disregarding valuable contextual information that could guide model testing. In this paper, we challenge the go-to approach of data-only testing and introduce context-aware testing (CAT) which uses context as an inductive bias to guide the search for meaningful model failures. We instantiate the first CAT system, SMART Testing, which employs large language models to hypothesize relevant and likely failures, which are evaluated on data using a self-falsification mechanism. Through empirical evaluations in diverse settings, we show that SMART automatically identifies more relevant and impactful failures than alternatives, demonstrating the potential of CAT as a testing paradigm.

Paulius Rauba, Nabeel Seedat, Krzysztof Kacprzyk et al.

Real-world machine learning systems often encounter model performance degradation due to distributional shifts in the underlying data generating process (DGP). Existing approaches to addressing shifts, such as concept drift adaptation, are limited by their reason-agnostic nature. By choosing from a pre-defined set of actions, such methods implicitly assume that the causes of model degradation are irrelevant to what actions should be taken, limiting their ability to select appropriate adaptations. In this paper, we propose an alternative paradigm to overcome these limitations, called self-healing machine learning (SHML). Contrary to previous approaches, SHML autonomously diagnoses the reason for degradation and proposes diagnosis-based corrective actions. We formalize SHML as an optimization problem over a space of adaptation actions to minimize the expected risk under the shifted DGP. We introduce a theoretical framework for self-healing systems and build an agentic self-healing solution H-LLM which uses large language models to perform self-diagnosis by reasoning about the structure underlying the DGP, and self-adaptation by proposing and evaluating corrective actions. Empirically, we analyze different components of H-LLM to understand why and when it works, demonstrating the potential of self-healing ML.

Paulius Rauba, Qiyao Wei, Mihaela van der Schaar

We consider the problem of quantifying how an input perturbation impacts the outputs of large language models (LLMs), a fundamental task for model reliability and post-hoc interpretability. A key obstacle in this domain is disentangling the meaningful changes in model responses from the intrinsic stochasticity of LLM outputs. To overcome this, we introduce Distribution-Based Perturbation Analysis (DBPA), a framework that reformulates LLM perturbation analysis as a frequentist hypothesis testing problem. DBPA constructs empirical null and alternative output distributions within a low-dimensional semantic similarity space via Monte Carlo sampling. Comparisons of Monte Carlo estimates in the reduced dimensionality space enables tractable frequentist inference without relying on restrictive distributional assumptions. The framework is model-agnostic, supports the evaluation of arbitrary input perturbations on any black-box LLM, yields interpretable p-values, supports multiple perturbation testing via controlled error rates, and provides scalar effect sizes for any chosen similarity or distance metric. We demonstrate the effectiveness of DBPA in evaluating perturbation impacts, showing its versatility for perturbation analysis.

Paulius Rauba, Claudio Fanconi, Mihaela van der Schaar

Tiny Recursive Models (TRMs) have recently demonstrated remarkable performance on ARC-AGI, showing that very small models can compete against large foundation models through a two-step refinement mechanism that updates an internal reasoning state $z$ and the predicted output $y$. Naturally, such refinement is of interest for any predictor; it is therefore natural to wonder whether the TRM mechanism could be effectively re-adopted in autoregressive models. However, TRMs cannot be simply compared to standard models because they lack causal predictive structures and contain persistent latent states that make it difficult to isolate specific performance gains. In this paper, we propose the Autoregressive TRM and evaluate it on small autoregressive tasks. To understand its efficacy, we propose a suite of models that gradually transform a standard Transformer to a Tiny Autoregressive Recursive Model in a controlled setting that fixes the block design, token stream, and next-token objective. Across compute-matched experiments on character-level algorithmic tasks, we surprisingly find that there are some two-level refinement baselines that show strong performance. Contrary to expectations, we find no reliable performance gains from the full Autoregressive TRM architecture. These results offer potential promise for two-step refinement mechanisms more broadly but caution against investing in the autoregressive TRM-specific model as a fruitful research direction.

Paulius Rauba, Qiyao Wei, Mihaela van der Schaar

Consider the problem of testing whether the outputs of a large language model (LLM) system change under an arbitrary intervention, such as an input perturbation or changing the model variant. We cannot simply compare two LLM outputs since they might differ due to the stochastic nature of the system, nor can we compare the entire output distribution due to computational intractability. While existing methods for analyzing text-based outputs exist, they focus on fundamentally different problems, such as measuring bias or fairness. To this end, we introduce distribution-based perturbation analysis, a framework that reformulates LLM perturbation analysis as a frequentist hypothesis testing problem. We construct empirical null and alternative output distributions within a low-dimensional semantic similarity space via Monte Carlo sampling, enabling tractable inference without restrictive distributional assumptions. The framework is (i) model-agnostic, (ii) supports the evaluation of arbitrary input perturbations on any black-box LLM, (iii) yields interpretable p-values; (iv) supports multiple perturbations via controlled error rates; and (v) provides scalar effect sizes. We demonstrate the usefulness of the framework across multiple case studies, showing how we can quantify response changes, measure true/false positive rates, and evaluate alignment with reference models. Above all, we see this as a reliable frequentist hypothesis testing framework for LLM auditing.

Paulius Rauba, Mihaela van der Schaar

Large neural networks are typically trained for a fixed computational budget, creating a rigid trade-off between performance and efficiency that is ill-suited for deployment in resource-constrained or dynamic environments. Existing approaches to this problem present a difficult choice: training a discrete collection of specialist models is computationally prohibitive, while dynamic methods like slimmable networks often lack the flexibility to be applied to large, pre-trained foundation models. In this work, we propose Nested Subspace Networks (NSNs), a novel architectural paradigm that enables a single model to be dynamically and granularly adjusted across a continuous spectrum of compute budgets at inference time. The core of our approach is to re-parameterize linear layers to satisfy a nested subspace property, such that the function computed at a given rank is a strict subspace of the function at any higher rank. We show that this entire hierarchy of models can be optimized jointly via an uncertainty-aware objective that learns to balance the contributions of different ranks based on their intrinsic difficulty. We demonstrate empirically that NSNs can be surgically applied to pre-trained LLMs and unlock a smooth and predictable compute-performance frontier. For example, a single NSN-adapted model can achieve a 50% reduction in inference FLOPs with only a 5 percentage point loss in accuracy. Our findings establish NSNs as a powerful framework for creating the next generation of adaptive foundation models.