Richard Moulange

Elizabeth Seger, Noemi Dreksler, Richard Moulange et al.

Recent decisions by leading AI labs to either open-source their models or to restrict access to their models has sparked debate about whether, and how, increasingly capable AI models should be shared. Open-sourcing in AI typically refers to making model architecture and weights freely and publicly accessible for anyone to modify, study, build on, and use. This offers advantages such as enabling external oversight, accelerating progress, and decentralizing control over AI development and use. However, it also presents a growing potential for misuse and unintended consequences. This paper offers an examination of the risks and benefits of open-sourcing highly capable foundation models. While open-sourcing has historically provided substantial net benefits for most software and AI development processes, we argue that for some highly capable foundation models likely to be developed in the near future, open-sourcing may pose sufficiently extreme risks to outweigh the benefits. In such a case, highly capable foundation models should not be open-sourced, at least not initially. Alternative strategies, including non-open-source model sharing options, are explored. The paper concludes with recommendations for developers, standard-setting bodies, and governments for establishing safe and responsible model sharing practices and preserving open-source benefits where safe.

Richard Moulange, Max Langenkamp, Tessa Alexanian et al.

Recent advancements in generative machine learning have enabled rapid progress in biological design tools (BDTs) such as protein structure and sequence prediction models. The unprecedented predictive accuracy and novel design capabilities of BDTs present new and significant dual-use risks. For example, their predictive accuracy allows biological agents, whether vaccines or pathogens, to be developed more quickly, while the design capabilities could be used to discover drugs or evade DNA screening techniques. Similar to other dual-use AI systems, BDTs present a wicked problem: how can regulators uphold public safety without stifling innovation? We highlight how current regulatory proposals that are primarily tailored toward large language models may be less effective for BDTs, which require fewer computational resources to train and are often developed in an open-source manner. We propose a range of measures to mitigate the risk that BDTs are misused, across the areas of responsible development, risk assessment, transparency, access management, cybersecurity, and investing in resilience. Implementing such measures will require close coordination between developers and governments.

Izzy Newsham, Luka Kovačević, Richard Moulange et al.

Genes, proteins and other biological entities influence one another via causal molecular networks. Causal relationships in such networks are mediated by complex and diverse mechanisms, through latent variables, and are often specific to cellular context. It remains challenging to characterise such networks in practice. Here, we present a novel framework to evaluate large language models (LLMs) for zero-shot inference of causal relationships in biology. In particular, we systematically evaluate causal claims obtained from an LLM using real-world interventional data. This is done over one hundred variables and thousands of causal hypotheses. Furthermore, we consider several prompting and retrieval-augmentation strategies, including large, and potentially conflicting, collections of scientific articles. Our results show that with tailored augmentation and prompting, even relatively small LLMs can capture meaningful aspects of causal structure in biological systems. This supports the notion that LLMs could act as orchestration tools in biological discovery, by helping to distil current knowledge in ways amenable to downstream analysis. Our approach to assessing LLMs with respect to experimental data is relevant for a broad range of problems at the intersection of causal learning, LLMs and scientific discovery.