Thomas Baldwin-McDonald

Xinxing Shi, Thomas Baldwin-McDonald, Mauricio A. Álvarez

Deep Gaussian Processes (DGPs) leverage a compositional structure to model non-stationary processes. DGPs typically rely on local inducing point approximations across intermediate GP layers. Recent advances in DGP inference have shown that incorporating global Fourier features from the Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS) can enhance the DGPs' capability to capture complex non-stationary patterns. This paper extends the use of these features to compositional GPs involving linear transformations. In particular, we introduce Ordinary Differential Equation(ODE)--based RKHS Fourier features that allow for adaptive amplitude and phase modulation through convolution operations. This convolutional formulation relates our work to recently proposed deep latent force models, a multi-layer structure designed for modelling nonlinear dynamical systems. By embedding these adjustable RKHS Fourier features within a doubly stochastic variational inference framework, our model exhibits improved predictive performance across various regression tasks.

Thomas Baldwin-McDonald, Mauricio A. Álvarez

Modelling the behaviour of highly nonlinear dynamical systems with robust uncertainty quantification is a challenging task which typically requires approaches specifically designed to address the problem at hand. We introduce a domain-agnostic model to address this issue termed the deep latent force model (DLFM), a deep Gaussian process with physics-informed kernels at each layer, derived from ordinary differential equations using the framework of process convolutions. Two distinct formulations of the DLFM are presented which utilise weight-space and variational inducing points-based Gaussian process approximations, both of which are amenable to doubly stochastic variational inference. We present empirical evidence of the capability of the DLFM to capture the dynamics present in highly nonlinear real-world multi-output time series data. Additionally, we find that the DLFM is capable of achieving comparable performance to a range of non-physics-informed probabilistic models on benchmark univariate regression tasks. We also empirically assess the negative impact of the inducing points framework on the extrapolation capabilities of LFM-based models.