Ivan Nazarov

Eric Hambro, Sharada Mohanty, Dmitrii Babaev et al. · deepmind, oxford

In this report, we summarize the takeaways from the first NeurIPS 2021 NetHack Challenge. Participants were tasked with developing a program or agent that can win (i.e., 'ascend' in) the popular dungeon-crawler game of NetHack by interacting with the NetHack Learning Environment (NLE), a scalable, procedurally generated, and challenging Gym environment for reinforcement learning (RL). The challenge showcased community-driven progress in AI with many diverse approaches significantly beating the previously best results on NetHack. Furthermore, it served as a direct comparison between neural (e.g., deep RL) and symbolic AI, as well as hybrid systems, demonstrating that on NetHack symbolic bots currently outperform deep RL by a large margin. Lastly, no agent got close to winning the game, illustrating NetHack's suitability as a long-term benchmark for AI research.

África Periáñez, Ana Fernández del Río, Ivan Nazarov et al.

Mobile health has the potential to revolutionize health care delivery and patient engagement. In this work, we discuss how integrating Artificial Intelligence into digital health applications-focused on supply chain, patient management, and capacity building, among other use cases-can improve the health system and public health performance. We present an Artificial Intelligence and Reinforcement Learning platform that allows the delivery of adaptive interventions whose impact can be optimized through experimentation and real-time monitoring. The system can integrate multiple data sources and digital health applications. The flexibility of this platform to connect to various mobile health applications and digital devices and send personalized recommendations based on past data and predictions can significantly improve the impact of digital tools on health system outcomes. The potential for resource-poor settings, where the impact of this approach on health outcomes could be more decisive, is discussed specifically. This framework is, however, similarly applicable to improving efficiency in health systems where scarcity is not an issue.

Ana Fernández del Río, Michael Brennan Leong, Paulo Saraiva et al.

Pharmacies are critical in healthcare systems, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Procuring pharmacists with the right behavioral interventions or nudges can enhance their skills, public health awareness, and pharmacy inventory management, ensuring access to essential medicines that ultimately benefit their patients. We introduce a reinforcement learning operational system to deliver personalized behavioral interventions through mobile health applications. We illustrate its potential by discussing a series of initial experiments run with SwipeRx, an all-in-one app for pharmacists, including B2B e-commerce, in Indonesia. The proposed method has broader applications extending beyond pharmacy operations to optimize healthcare delivery.

Ana Fernández del Río, Michael Brennan Leong, Paulo Saraiva et al.

This paper introduces a reinforcement learning (RL) platform that enhances end-to-end user journeys in healthcare digital tools through personalization. We explore a case study with SwipeRx, the most popular all-in-one app for pharmacists in Southeast Asia, demonstrating how the platform can be used to personalize and adapt user experiences. Our RL framework is tested through a series of experiments with product recommendations tailored to each pharmacy based on real-time information on their purchasing history and in-app engagement, showing a significant increase in basket size. By integrating adaptive interventions into existing mobile health solutions and enriching user journeys, our platform offers a scalable solution to improve pharmaceutical supply chain management, health worker capacity building, and clinical decision and patient care, ultimately contributing to better healthcare outcomes.

África Periáñez, Kathrin Schmitz, Lazola Makhupula et al.

By providing evidence-based clinical decision support, digital tools and electronic health records can revolutionize patient management, especially in resource-poor settings where fewer health workers are available and often need more training. When these tools are integrated with AI, they can offer personalized support and adaptive interventions, effectively connecting community health workers (CHWs) and healthcare facilities. The CHARM (Community Health Access & Resource Management) app is an AI-native mobile app for CHWs. Developed through a joint partnership of Causal Foundry (CF) and mothers2mothers (m2m), CHARM empowers CHWs, mainly local women, by streamlining case management, enhancing learning, and improving communication. This paper details CHARM's development, integration, and upcoming reinforcement learning-based adaptive interventions, all aimed at enhancing health worker engagement, efficiency, and patient outcomes, thereby enhancing CHWs' capabilities and community health.

Alexander Ponomarchuk, Ilya Burenko, Elian Malkin et al.

The COVID-19 pandemic created a significant interest and demand for infection detection and monitoring solutions. In this paper we propose a machine learning method to quickly triage COVID-19 using recordings made on consumer devices. The approach combines signal processing methods with fine-tuned deep learning networks and provides methods for signal denoising, cough detection and classification. We have also developed and deployed a mobile application that uses symptoms checker together with voice, breath and cough signals to detect COVID-19 infection. The application showed robust performance on both open sourced datasets and on the noisy data collected during beta testing by the end users.

Babaniyi Olaniyi, Ina Kalisa, Ana Fernández del Río et al.

As part of Rwanda's transition toward universal health coverage, the national Community-Based Health Insurance (CBHI) scheme is moving from retrospective fee-for-service reimbursements to prospective capitation payments for public primary healthcare providers. This report outlines a data-driven approach to designing, calibrating, and monitoring the capitation model using individual-level claims data from the Intelligent Health Benefits System (IHBS). We introduce a transparent, interpretable formula for allocating payments to Health Centers and their affiliated Health Posts. The formula is based on catchment population, service utilization patterns, and patient inflows, with parameters estimated via regression models calibrated on national claims data. Repeated validation exercises show the payment scheme closely aligns with historical spending while promoting fairness and adaptability across diverse facilities. In addition to payment design, the same dataset enables actionable behavioral insights. We highlight the use case of monitoring antibiotic prescribing patterns, particularly in pediatric care, to flag potential overuse and guideline deviations. Together, these capabilities lay the groundwork for a learning health financing system: one that connects digital infrastructure, resource allocation, and service quality to support continuous improvement and evidence-informed policy reform.

Jiamin Xu, Ivan Nazarov, Aditya Rastogi et al.

This paper addresses the poor finite-horizon performance of existing online \emph{restless bandit} (RB) algorithms, which stems from the prohibitive sample complexity of learning a full \emph{Markov decision process} (MDP) for each agent. We argue that superior finite-horizon performance requires \emph{rapid convergence} to a \emph{high-quality} policy. Thus motivated, we introduce a reformulation of online RBs as a \emph{budgeted thresholding contextual bandit}, which simplifies the learning problem by encoding long-term state transitions into a scalar reward. We prove the first non-asymptotic optimality of an oracle policy for a simplified finite-horizon setting. We propose a practical learning policy under a heterogeneous-agent, multi-state setting, and show that it achieves a sublinear regret, achieving \emph{faster convergence} than existing methods. This directly translates to higher cumulative reward, as empirically validated by significant gains over state-of-the-art algorithms in large-scale heterogeneous environments. Our work provides a new pathway for achieving practical, sample-efficient learning in finite-horizon RBs.

Rodrigo Rivera-Castro, Aleksandr Pletnev, Polina Pilyugina et al.

Topological Data Analysis (TDA) is a recent approach to analyze data sets from the perspective of their topological structure. Its use for time series data has been limited. In this work, a system developed for a leading provider of cloud computing combining both user segmentation and demand forecasting is presented. It consists of a TDA-based clustering method for time series inspired by a popular managerial framework for customer segmentation and extended to the case of clusterwise regression using matrix factorization methods to forecast demand. Increasing customer loyalty and producing accurate forecasts remain active topics of discussion both for researchers and managers. Using a public and a novel proprietary data set of commercial data, this research shows that the proposed system enables analysts to both cluster their user base and plan demand at a granular level with significantly higher accuracy than a state of the art baseline. This work thus seeks to introduce TDA-based clustering of time series and clusterwise regression with matrix factorization methods as viable tools for the practitioner.

Ivan Nazarov, Evgeny Burnaev

With continual miniaturization ever more applications of deep learning can be found in embedded systems, where it is common to encounter data with natural complex domain representation. To this end we extend Sparse Variational Dropout to complex-valued neural networks and verify the proposed Bayesian technique by conducting a large numerical study of the performance-compression trade-off of C-valued networks on two tasks: image recognition on MNIST-like and CIFAR10 datasets and music transcription on MusicNet. We replicate the state-of-the-art result by Trabelsi et al. [2018] on MusicNet with a complex-valued network compressed by 50-100x at a small performance penalty.

Dmitrii Babaev, Ivan Kireev, Nikita Ovsov et al.

We address the problem of self-supervised learning on discrete event sequences generated by real-world users. Self-supervised learning incorporates complex information from the raw data in low-dimensional fixed-length vector representations that could be easily applied in various downstream machine learning tasks. In this paper, we propose a new method "CoLES", which adapts contrastive learning, previously used for audio and computer vision domains, to the discrete event sequences domain in a self-supervised setting. We deployed CoLES embeddings based on sequences of transactions at the large European financial services company. Usage of CoLES embeddings significantly improves the performance of the pre-existing models on downstream tasks and produces significant financial gains, measured in hundreds of millions of dollars yearly. We also evaluated CoLES on several public event sequences datasets and showed that CoLES representations consistently outperform other methods on different downstream tasks.

Rodrigo Rivera-Castro, Ivan Nazarov, Yuke Xiang et al.

Build-to-order (BTO) supply chains have become common-place in industries such as electronics, automotive and fashion. They enable building products based on individual requirements with a short lead time and minimum inventory and production costs. Due to their nature, they differ significantly from traditional supply chains. However, there have not been studies dedicated to demand forecasting methods for this type of setting. This work makes two contributions. First, it presents a new and unique data set from a manufacturer in the BTO sector. Second, it proposes a novel data transformation technique for demand forecasting of BTO products. Results from thirteen forecasting methods show that the approach compares well to the state-of-the-art while being easy to implement and to explain to decision-makers.

Ivan Nazarov, Boris Shirokikh, Maria Burkina et al.

We consider the problem of matrix completion with side information (\textit{inductive matrix completion}). In real-world applications many side-channel features are typically non-informative making feature selection an important part of the problem. We incorporate feature selection into inductive matrix completion by proposing a matrix factorization framework with group-lasso regularization on side feature parameter matrices. We demonstrate, that the theoretical sample complexity for the proposed method is much lower compared to its competitors in sparse problems, and propose an efficient optimization algorithm for the resulting low-rank matrix completion problem with sparsifying regularizers. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets show that the proposed approach outperforms other methods.

Vladislav Ishimtsev, Ivan Nazarov, Alexander Bernstein et al.

Anomalies in time-series data give essential and often actionable information in many applications. In this paper we consider a model-free anomaly detection method for univariate time-series which adapts to non-stationarity in the data stream and provides probabilistic abnormality scores based on the conformal prediction paradigm. Despite its simplicity the method performs on par with complex prediction-based models on the Numenta Anomaly Detection benchmark and the Yahoo! S5 dataset.

Denis Volkhonskiy, Ivan Nazarov, Evgeny Burnaev

Steganography is collection of methods to hide secret information ("payload") within non-secret information "container"). Its counterpart, Steganalysis, is the practice of determining if a message contains a hidden payload, and recovering it if possible. Presence of hidden payloads is typically detected by a binary classifier. In the present study, we propose a new model for generating image-like containers based on Deep Convolutional Generative Adversarial Networks (DCGAN). This approach allows to generate more setganalysis-secure message embedding using standard steganography algorithms. Experiment results demonstrate that the new model successfully deceives the steganography analyzer, and for this reason, can be used in steganographic applications.

Evgeny Burnaev, Ivan Nazarov

General predictive models do not provide a measure of confidence in predictions without Bayesian assumptions. A way to circumvent potential restrictions is to use conformal methods for constructing non-parametric confidence regions, that offer guarantees regarding validity. In this paper we provide a detailed description of a computationally efficient conformal procedure for Kernel Ridge Regression (KRR), and conduct a comparative numerical study to see how well conformal regions perform against the Bayesian confidence sets. The results suggest that conformalized KRR can yield predictive confidence regions with specified coverage rate, which is essential in constructing anomaly detection systems based on predictive models.