Heike Hofmann

Maria Cuellar, Sheng Gao, Heike Hofmann

Forensic toolmark analysis traditionally relies on subjective human judgment, leading to inconsistencies and lack of transparency. The multitude of variables, including angles and directions of mark generation, further complicates comparisons. To address this, we first generate a dataset of 3D toolmarks from various angles and directions using consecutively manufactured slotted screwdrivers. By using PAM clustering, we find that there is clustering by tool rather than angle or direction. Using Known Match and Known Non-Match densities, we establish thresholds for classification. Fitting Beta distributions to the densities, we allow for the derivation of likelihood ratios for new toolmark pairs. With a cross-validated sensitivity of 98% and specificity of 96%, our approach enhances the reliability of toolmark analysis. This approach is applicable to slotted screwdrivers, and for screwdrivers that are made with a similar production method. With data collection of other tools and factors, it could be applied to compare toolmarks of other types. This empirically trained, open-source solution offers forensic examiners a standardized means to objectively compare toolmarks, potentially decreasing the number of miscarriages of justice in the legal system.

Katherine Goode, J. Derek Tucker, Daniel Ries et al.

Machine learning (ML) models have shown success in applications with an objective of prediction, but the algorithmic complexity of some models makes them difficult to interpret. Methods have been proposed to provide insight into these "black-box" models, but there is little research that focuses on supervised ML when the model inputs are functional data. In this work, we consider two applications from high-consequence spaces with objectives of making predictions using functional data inputs. One application aims to classify material types to identify explosive materials given hyperspectral computed tomography scans of the materials. The other application considers the forensics science task of connecting an inkjet printed document to the source printer using color signatures extracted by Raman spectroscopy. An instinctive route to consider for analyzing these data is a data driven ML model for classification, but due to the high consequence nature of the applications, we argue it is important to appropriately account for the nature of the data in the analysis to not obscure or misrepresent patterns. As such, we propose the Variable importance Explainable Elastic Shape Analysis (VEESA) pipeline for training ML models with functional data that (1) accounts for the vertical and horizontal variability in the functional data and (2) provides an explanation in the original data space of how the model uses variability in the functional data for prediction. The pipeline makes use of elastic functional principal components analysis (efPCA) to generate uncorrelated model inputs and permutation feature importance (PFI) to identify the principal components important for prediction. The variability captured by the important principal components in visualized the original data space. We ultimately discuss ideas for natural extensions of the VEESA pipeline and challenges for future research.

Ganesh Krishnan, Heike Hofmann

Forensic examination of evidence like firearms and toolmarks, traditionally involves a visual and therefore subjective assessment of similarity of two questioned items. Statistical models are used to overcome this subjectivity and allow specification of error rates. These models are generally quite complex and produce abstract results at different levels of the analysis. Presenting such metrics and complicated results to examiners is challenging, as examiners generally do not have substantial statistical training to accurately interpret results. This creates distrust in statistical modelling and lowers the rate of acceptance of more objective measures that the discipline at large is striving for. We present an inferential framework for assessing the model and its output. The framework is designed to calibrate trust in forensic experts by bridging the gap between domain specific knowledge and predictive model results, allowing forensic examiners to validate the claims of the predictive model while critically assessing results.

Yihui Xie, Heike Hofmann, Xiaoyue Cheng

One of the big challenges of developing interactive statistical applications is the management of the data pipeline, which controls transformations from data to plot. The user's interactions needs to be propagated through these modules and reflected in the output representation at a fast pace. Each individual module may be easy to develop and manage, but the dependency structure can be quite challenging. The MVC (Model/View/Controller) pattern is an attempt to solve the problem by separating the user's interaction from the representation of the data. In this paper we discuss the paradigm of reactive programming in the framework of the MVC architecture and show its applicability to interactive graphics. Under this paradigm, developers benefit from the separation of user interaction from the graphical representation, which makes it easier for users and developers to extend interactive applications. We show the central role of reactive data objects in an interactive graphics system, implemented as the R package cranvas, which is freely available on GitHub and the main developers include the authors of this paper.