Lukas Moosbrugger

Lukas Moosbrugger, Valentin Seiler, Gerhard Huber et al.

According to a conservative estimate, a 1% reduction in forecast error for a 10 GW energy utility can save up to $ 1.6 million annually. In our context, achieving precise forecasts of future power consumption is crucial for operating flexible energy assets using model predictive control approaches. Specifically, this work focuses on the load profile forecast of a first-year energy community with the common practical challenge of limited historical data availability. We propose to pre-train the load prediction models with open-access synthetic load profiles using transfer learning techniques to tackle this challenge. Results show that this approach improves both, the training stability and prediction error. In a test case with 74 households, the prediction mean squared error (MSE) decreased from 0.34 to 0.13, showing transfer learning based on synthetic load profiles to be a viable approach to compensate for a lack of historic data.

Lukas Moosbrugger, Valentin Seiler, Philipp Wohlgenannt et al.

Energy communities (ECs) play a key role in enabling local demand shifting and enhancing self-sufficiency, as energy systems transition toward decentralized structures with high shares of renewable generation. To optimally operate them, accurate short-term load forecasting is essential, particularly for implementing demand-side management strategies. With the recent rise of deep learning methods, data-driven forecasting has gained significant attention, however, it remains insufficiently explored in many practical contexts. Therefore, this study evaluates the effectiveness of state-of-the-art deep learning models-including LSTM, xLSTM, and Transformer architectures-compared to traditional benchmarks such as K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) and persistence forecasting, across varying community size, historical data availability, and model complexity. Additionally, we assess the benefits of transfer learning using publicly available synthetic load profiles. On average, transfer learning improves the normalized mean absolute error by 1.97 percentage points when only two months of training data are available. Interestingly, for less than six months of training data, simple persistence models outperform deep learning architectures in forecast accuracy. The practical value of improved forecasting is demonstrated using a mixed-integer linear programming optimization for ECs with a shared battery energy storage system. For an energy community with 50 households, the most accurate deep learning model achieves an average reduction in financial energy costs of 8.06%. Notably, a simple KNN approach achieves average savings of 8.01%, making it a competitive and robust alternative. All implementations are publicly available to facilitate reproducibility. These findings offer actionable insights for ECs, and they highlight when the additional complexity of deep learning is warranted by performance gains.