Samuel Böhm

Samuel Böhm, Lennart Purucker, Frank Hutter et al.

Tabular foundation models (TFMs) have made rapid progress in standard classification and regression, but time-to-event survival prediction tasks have remained largely untouched. Unlike in standard regression tasks, survival prediction models must account for censored data. Standard TFMs cannot handle natively censored data, leading to biased and inaccurate predictions, making them unsuitable for real-world applications. To overcome this fundamental limitation, we propose \texttt{SurvPFN}, a prior-data fitted network (PFN), for survival prediction tasks. We pretrain \texttt{SurvPFN} on millions of synthetic survival prediction tasks to learn survival via distributional regression that accounts for censored data. \texttt{SurvPFN} works by (1) generating data with Weibull event times and a non-informative censoring mechanism; (2) integrating a censored event indicator; and (3) minimizing a censored negative log-likelihood. On SurvSet, a collection of real-world survival tasks, \texttt{SurvPFN} is highly competitive with classical and deep survival baselines without per-dataset fitting, a survival-specific architecture, or feature engineering. We show that survival can be treated as a continuous-time distributional regression problem with censored loss, unlocking the power of PFNs for time-to-event predictions.

Jelena Bratulić, Sudhanshu Mittal, David T. Hoffmann et al.

Large Language Models (LLMs) exhibit In-Context Learning (ICL), which enables the model to perform new tasks conditioning only on the examples provided in the context without updating the model's weights. While ICL offers fast adaptation across natural language tasks and domains, its emergence is less straightforward for modalities beyond text. In this work, we systematically uncover properties present in LLMs that support the emergence of ICL for autoregressive models and various modalities by promoting the learning of the needed mechanisms for ICL. We identify exact token repetitions in the training data sequences as an important factor for ICL. Such repetitions further improve stability and reduce transiency in ICL performance. Moreover, we emphasise the significance of training task difficulty for the emergence of ICL. Finally, by applying our novel insights on ICL emergence, we unlock ICL capabilities for various visual datasets and a more challenging EEG classification task.