Jef Jonkers

Jarne Verhaeghe, Jef Jonkers, Sofie Van Hoecke

Understanding the dose-response relation between a continuous treatment and the outcome for an individual can greatly drive decision-making, particularly in areas like personalized drug dosing and personalized healthcare interventions. Point estimates are often insufficient in these high-risk environments, highlighting the need for uncertainty quantification to support informed decisions. Conformal prediction, a distribution-free and model-agnostic method for uncertainty quantification, has seen limited application in continuous treatments or dose-response models. To address this gap, we propose a novel methodology that frames the causal dose-response problem as a covariate shift, leveraging weighted conformal prediction. By incorporating propensity estimation, conformal predictive systems, and likelihood ratios, we present a practical solution for generating prediction intervals for dose-response models. Additionally, our method approximates local coverage for every treatment value by applying kernel functions as weights in weighted conformal prediction. Finally, we use a new synthetic benchmark dataset to demonstrate the significance of covariate shift assumptions in achieving robust prediction intervals for dose-response models.

Jef Jonkers, Glenn Van Wallendael, Luc Duchateau et al.

Conformal Predictive Systems (CPS) offer a versatile framework for constructing predictive distributions, allowing for calibrated inference and informative decision-making. However, their applicability has been limited to scenarios adhering to the Independent and Identically Distributed (IID) model assumption. This paper extends CPS to accommodate scenarios characterized by covariate shifts. We therefore propose Weighted CPS (WCPS), akin to Weighted Conformal Prediction (WCP), leveraging likelihood ratios between training and testing covariate distributions. This extension enables the construction of nonparametric predictive distributions capable of handling covariate shifts. We present theoretical underpinnings and conjectures regarding the validity and efficacy of WCPS and demonstrate its utility through empirical evaluations on both synthetic and real-world datasets. Our simulation experiments indicate that WCPS are probabilistically calibrated under covariate shift.

Jef Jonkers, Jarne Verhaeghe, Glenn Van Wallendael et al.

Generating probabilistic forecasts of potential outcomes and individual treatment effects (ITE) is essential for risk-aware decision-making in domains such as healthcare, policy, marketing, and finance. We propose two novel methods: the conformal convolution T-learner (CCT) and the conformal Monte Carlo (CMC) meta-learner, that generate full predictive distributions of both potential outcomes and ITEs. Our approaches combine weighted conformal predictive systems with either analytic convolution of potential outcome distributions or Monte Carlo sampling, addressing covariate shift through propensity score weighting. In contrast to other approaches that allow the generation of potential outcome predictive distributions, our approaches are model agnostic, universal, and come with finite-sample guarantees of probabilistic calibration under knowledge of the propensity score. Regarding estimating the ITE distribution, we formally characterize how assumptions about potential outcomes' noise dependency impact distribution validity and establish universal consistency under independence noise assumptions. Experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic datasets demonstrate that the proposed methods achieve probabilistically calibrated predictive distributions while maintaining narrow prediction intervals and having performant continuous ranked probability scores. Besides probabilistic forecasting performance, we observe significant efficiency gains for the CCT- and CMC meta-learners compared to other conformal approaches that produce prediction intervals for ITE with coverage guarantees.

Jef Jonkers, Luc Duchateau, Glenn Van Wallendael et al.

Anatomical landmark localization in 2D/3D images is a critical task in medical imaging. Although many general-purpose tools exist for landmark localization in classical computer vision tasks, such as pose estimation, they lack the specialized features and modularity necessary for anatomical landmark localization applications in the medical domain. Therefore, we introduce landmarker, a Python package built on PyTorch. The package provides a comprehensive, flexible toolkit for developing and evaluating landmark localization algorithms, supporting a range of methodologies, including static and adaptive heatmap regression. landmarker enhances the accuracy of landmark identification, streamlines research and development processes, and supports various image formats and preprocessing pipelines. Its modular design allows users to customize and extend the toolkit for specific datasets and applications, accelerating innovation in medical imaging. landmarker addresses a critical need for precision and customization in landmark localization tasks not adequately met by existing general-purpose pose estimation tools.