Andrey A. Popov

Zain Jabbar, Yuqin Jiang, Andrey A. Popov

The estimation of concentration parameter in Fisher-von Mises-Langevin distribution is the directional statistics analogue of the estimation of the precision matrix for the Gaussian distribution. In this work we show that unbiased estimation of this parameter is impossible. With this realization in hand, we provide an alternative parameterization of the Fisher-von Mises-Langevin distribution in terms of the squared concentration, which we term the intensity. We fruther show that unbiased estimation of thereof is possible, and provide (almost) unbiased estimators thereof in terms of a partial sum U-statistic. We showcase our new estimator on synthetic data, New York taxi trip data, and on spherical word embeddings.

Jostein Barry-Straume, Arash Sarshar, Andrey A. Popov et al.

A fundamental problem in science and engineering is designing optimal control policies that steer a given system towards a desired outcome. This work proposes Control Physics-Informed Neural Networks (Control PINNs) that simultaneously solve for a given system state, and for the optimal control signal, in a one-stage framework that conforms to the underlying physical laws. Prior approaches use a two-stage framework that first models and then controls a system in sequential order. In contrast, a Control PINN incorporates the required optimality conditions in its architecture and in its loss function. The success of Control PINNs is demonstrated by solving the following open-loop optimal control problems: (i) an analytical problem, (ii) a one-dimensional heat equation, and (iii) a two-dimensional predator-prey problem.

Andrey A. Popov, Arash Sarshar, Austin Chennault et al.

A rapidly growing area of research is the use of machine learning approaches such as autoencoders for dimensionality reduction of data and models in scientific applications. We show that the canonical formulation of autoencoders suffers from several deficiencies that can hinder their performance. Using a meta-learning approach, we reformulate the autoencoder problem as a bi-level optimization procedure that explicitly solves the dimensionality reduction task. We prove that the new formulation corrects the identified deficiencies with canonical autoencoders, provide a practical way to solve it, and showcase the strength of this formulation with a simple numerical illustration.

Zain Jabbar, Andrey A. Popov

The ensemble Gaussian mixture filter (EnGMF) is a powerful, convergent particle filter capable of medium-to-high dimensional non-linear filtering. The EnGMF relies on a resampling step that can generate physically unrealistic posterior samples, that would subsequently produce physically meaningless forecasts. This work introduces the discriminator-informed resampling procedure, that augments the posterior resampling step with a discriminator that accepts or rejects candidate particles based on their physical plausibility. In this work these discriminators are learned through a normalizing flow approach. Numerical experiments on both the Ikeda map and the Lorenz '63 system show that discriminator informed resampling procedure consistently reduces error relative to the standard EnGMF in low-ensemble regimes.

Andrey A. Popov, Renato Zanetti

In the high-dimensional setting, Gaussian mixture kernel density estimates become increasingly suboptimal. In this work we aim to show that it is practical to instead use the optimal multivariate Epanechnikov kernel. We make use of this optimal Epanechnikov mixture kernel density estimate for the sequential filtering scenario through what we term the ensemble Epanechnikov mixture filter (EnEMF). We provide a practical implementation of the EnEMF that is as cost efficient as the comparable ensemble Gaussian mixture filter. We show on a static example that the EnEMF is robust to growth in dimension, and also that the EnEMF has a significant reduction in error per particle on the 40-variable Lorenz '96 system.

Andrey A. Popov

This work provides a new multinomial resampling procedure for particle filter resampling, focused on the case where the number of samples required is less than or equal to the size of the underlying discrete distribution. This setting is common in ensemble mixture model filters such as the Gaussian mixture filter. We show superiority of our approach with respect two of the best known multinomial sampling procedures both through a computational complexity analysis and through a numerical experiment.

Tianlu Lu, Asif Sijan, Thomas Noh et al.

This paper introduces the ensemble directional Kalman filter (EnDKF), an ensemble-based Kalman filtering approach for pose tracking that jointly estimates an object's position and attitude using ideas from directional statistics. The EnDKF integrates a unit-quaternion attitude representation to move beyond canonical Kalman filter mean and covariance assumptions that poorly capture directional uncertainty. Experiments on a synthetic constant-velocity constant-angular-velocity system and a digital-twin head-tracking scenario using the FoundationPose algorithm demonstrate a significant reduction in error as opposed to merely using measurements.

Andrey A. Popov

AI and data-driven models have large potential for data assimilation applications by creating fast and accurate forecasts. Their tendency to produce spurious inaccurate, nonphysical results -- hallucination -- however, raises a serious question about their long-term use, and can be categorized as untrustworthy methods. Theory-driven methods on the other hand are slow, but are capable of staying physically realistic due to their mathematical underpinning, and can be categorized as trustworthy methods. We argue that by making use of these methods in tandem, it is possible to build a relative measure of trust between the theory-driven and data-driven methods that results in a combined trustworthy methodology. We argue, and then show, that the bandwidth scaling factors in the kernel density estimates can be used to represent our trust in the theory-driven and data-driven models. We provide for ways in which these measures of trust can be adaptively computed through an expectation-maximization approach. We combine all of these ideas to create the multifidelity ensemble Gaussian mixture filter and its adaptive trust version, which are particle filters capable of high-dimensional data assimilation. We validate our ideas on both a static banana problem and on a sequential filtering example with the Lorenz '96 equations, showing that it is possible to create a particle filter that is capable of high dimensional convergent inference in the undersampled regime -- when the number of theory-driven samples is less than the dimension of the system.

Abhinab Bhattacharjee, Andrey A. Popov, Arash Sarshar et al.

The Adam optimizer, often used in Machine Learning for neural network training, corresponds to an underlying ordinary differential equation (ODE) in the limit of very small learning rates. This work shows that the classical Adam algorithm is a first-order implicit-explicit (IMEX) Euler discretization of the underlying ODE. Employing the time discretization point of view, we propose new extensions of the Adam scheme obtained by using higher-order IMEX methods to solve the ODE. Based on this approach, we derive a new optimization algorithm for neural network training that performs better than classical Adam on several regression and classification problems.

Felipe Giraldo-Grueso, Andrey A. Popov, Renato Zanetti

Spacecraft entering Mars require precise navigation algorithms capable of accurately estimating the vehicle's position and velocity in dynamic and uncertain atmospheric environments. Discrepancies between the true Martian atmospheric density and the onboard density model can significantly impair the performance of spacecraft entry navigation filters. This work introduces a new approach to online filtering for Martian entry using a neural network to estimate atmospheric density and employing a consider analysis to account for the uncertainty in the estimate. The network is trained on an exponential atmospheric density model, and its parameters are dynamically adapted in real time to account for any mismatch between the true and estimated densities. The adaptation of the network is formulated as a maximum likelihood problem by leveraging the measurement innovations of the filter to identify optimal network parameters. Within the context of the maximum likelihood approach, incorporating a neural network enables the use of stochastic optimizers known for their efficiency in the machine learning domain. Performance comparisons are conducted against two online adaptive approaches, covariance matching and state augmentation and correction, in various realistic Martian entry navigation scenarios. The results show superior estimation accuracy compared to other approaches, and precise alignment of the estimated density with a broad selection of realistic Martian atmospheres sampled from perturbed Mars-GRAM data.

Jostein Barry-Straume, Adwait D. Verulkar, Arash Sarshar et al.

The objective of designing a control system is to steer a dynamical system with a control signal, guiding it to exhibit the desired behavior. The Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) partial differential equation offers a framework for optimal control system design. However, numerical solutions to this equation are computationally intensive, and analytical solutions are frequently unavailable. Knowledge-guided machine learning methodologies, such as physics-informed neural networks (PINNs), offer new alternative approaches that can alleviate the difficulties of solving the HJB equation numerically. This work presents a multistage ensemble framework to learn the optimal cost-to-go, and subsequently the corresponding optimal control signal, through the HJB equation. Prior PINN-based approaches rely on a stabilizing the HJB enforcement during training. Our framework does not use stabilizer terms and offers a means of controlling the nonlinear system, via either a singular learned control signal or an ensemble control signal policy. Success is demonstrated in closed-loop control, using both ensemble- and singular-control, of a steady-state time-invariant two-state continuous nonlinear system with an infinite time horizon, accounting of noisy, perturbed system states and varying initial conditions.

Yuqin Jiang, Andrey A. Popov, Tianle Duan et al.

Understanding urban human mobility patterns at various spatial levels is essential for social science. This study presents a machine learning framework to downscale origin-destination (OD) taxi trips flows in New York City from a larger spatial unit to a smaller spatial unit. First, correlations between OD trips and demographic, socioeconomic, and commuting characteristics are developed using four models: Linear Regression (LR), Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Neural Networks (NN). Second, a perturbation-based sensitivity analysis is applied to interpret variable importance for nonlinear models. The results show that the linear regression model failed to capture the complex variable interactions. While NN performs best with the training and testing datasets, SVM shows the best generalization ability in downscaling performance. The methodology presented in this study provides both analytical advancement and practical applications to improve transportation services and urban development.

Andrey A. Popov, Renato Zanetti

Data-driven reduced order modeling of chaotic dynamics can result in systems that either dissipate or diverge catastrophically. Leveraging non-linear dimensionality reduction of autoencoders and the freedom of non-linear operator inference with neural-networks, we aim to solve this problem by imposing a synthetic constraint in the reduced order space. The synthetic constraint allows our reduced order model both the freedom to remain fully non-linear and highly unstable while preventing divergence. We illustrate the methodology with the classical 40-variable Lorenz '96 equations, showing that our methodology is capable of producing medium-to-long range forecasts with lower error using less data.

Austin Chennault, Andrey A. Popov, Amit N. Subrahmanya et al.

Data assimilation is the process of fusing information from imperfect computer simulations with noisy, sparse measurements of reality to obtain improved estimates of the state or parameters of a dynamical system of interest. The data assimilation procedures used in many geoscience applications, such as numerical weather forecasting, are variants of the our-dimensional variational (4D-Var) algorithm. The cost of solving the underlying 4D-Var optimization problem is dominated by the cost of repeated forward and adjoint model runs. This motivates substituting the evaluations of the physical model and its adjoint by fast, approximate surrogate models. Neural networks offer a promising approach for the data-driven creation of surrogate models. The accuracy of the surrogate 4D-Var solution depends on the accuracy with each the surrogate captures both the forward and the adjoint model dynamics. We formulate and analyze several approaches to incorporate adjoint information into the construction of neural network surrogates. The resulting networks are tested on unseen data and in a sequential data assimilation problem using the Lorenz-63 system. Surrogates constructed using adjoint information demonstrate superior performance on the 4D-Var data assimilation problem compared to a standard neural network surrogate that uses only forward dynamics information.

Rachel Cooper, Andrey A. Popov, Adrian Sandu

Reduced order modeling (ROM) is a field of techniques that approximates complex physics-based models of real-world processes by inexpensive surrogates that capture important dynamical characteristics with a smaller number of degrees of freedom. Traditional ROM techniques such as proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) focus on linear projections of the dynamics onto a set of spectral features. In this paper we explore the construction of ROM using autoencoders (AE) that perform nonlinear projections of the system dynamics onto a low dimensional manifold learned from data. The approach uses convolutional neural networks (CNN) to learn spatial features as opposed to spectral, and utilize a physics informed (PI) cost function in order to capture temporal features as well. Our investigation using the quasi-geostrophic equations reveals that while the PI cost function helps with spatial reconstruction, spatial features are less powerful than spectral features, and that construction of ROMs through machine learning-based methods requires significant investigation into novel non-standard methodologies.