Lesia Semenova

Cynthia Rudin, Chudi Zhong, Lesia Semenova et al.

The Rashomon Effect, coined by Leo Breiman, describes the phenomenon that there exist many equally good predictive models for the same dataset. This phenomenon happens for many real datasets and when it does, it sparks both magic and consternation, but mostly magic. In light of the Rashomon Effect, this perspective piece proposes reshaping the way we think about machine learning, particularly for tabular data problems in the nondeterministic (noisy) setting. We address how the Rashomon Effect impacts (1) the existence of simple-yet-accurate models, (2) flexibility to address user preferences, such as fairness and monotonicity, without losing performance, (3) uncertainty in predictions, fairness, and explanations, (4) reliable variable importance, (5) algorithm choice, specifically, providing advanced knowledge of which algorithms might be suitable for a given problem, and (6) public policy. We also discuss a theory of when the Rashomon Effect occurs and why. Our goal is to illustrate how the Rashomon Effect can have a massive impact on the use of machine learning for complex problems in society.

Lesia Semenova, Harry Chen, Ronald Parr et al.

The Rashomon set is the set of models that perform approximately equally well on a given dataset, and the Rashomon ratio is the fraction of all models in a given hypothesis space that are in the Rashomon set. Rashomon ratios are often large for tabular datasets in criminal justice, healthcare, lending, education, and in other areas, which has practical implications about whether simpler models can attain the same level of accuracy as more complex models. An open question is why Rashomon ratios often tend to be large. In this work, we propose and study a mechanism of the data generation process, coupled with choices usually made by the analyst during the learning process, that determines the size of the Rashomon ratio. Specifically, we demonstrate that noisier datasets lead to larger Rashomon ratios through the way that practitioners train models. Additionally, we introduce a measure called pattern diversity, which captures the average difference in predictions between distinct classification patterns in the Rashomon set, and motivate why it tends to increase with label noise. Our results explain a key aspect of why simpler models often tend to perform as well as black box models on complex, noisier datasets.

Chloe Qinyu Zhu, Muhang Tian, Lesia Semenova et al.

Prediction of mortality in intensive care unit (ICU) patients typically relies on black box models (that are unacceptable for use in hospitals) or hand-tuned interpretable models (that might lead to the loss in performance). We aim to bridge the gap between these two categories by building on modern interpretable ML techniques to design interpretable mortality risk scores that are as accurate as black boxes. We developed a new algorithm, GroupFasterRisk, which has several important benefits: it uses both hard and soft direct sparsity regularization, it incorporates group sparsity to allow more cohesive models, it allows for monotonicity constraint to include domain knowledge, and it produces many equally-good models, which allows domain experts to choose among them. For evaluation, we leveraged the largest existing public ICU monitoring datasets (MIMIC III and eICU). Models produced by GroupFasterRisk outperformed OASIS and SAPS II scores and performed similarly to APACHE IV/IVa while using at most a third of the parameters. For patients with sepsis/septicemia, acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, and acute kidney failure, GroupFasterRisk models outperformed OASIS and SOFA. Finally, different mortality prediction ML approaches performed better based on variables selected by GroupFasterRisk as compared to OASIS variables. GroupFasterRisk's models performed better than risk scores currently used in hospitals, and on par with black box ML models, while being orders of magnitude sparser. Because GroupFasterRisk produces a variety of risk scores, it allows design flexibility - the key enabler of practical model creation. GroupFasterRisk is a fast, accessible, and flexible procedure that allows learning a diverse set of sparse risk scores for mortality prediction.

Ethan Hsu, Harry Chen, Chudi Zhong et al.

Real-world machine learning (ML) pipelines rarely produce a single model; instead, they produce a Rashomon set of many near-optimal ones. We show that this multiplicity reshapes key aspects of trustworthiness. At the individual-model level, sparse interpretable models tend to preserve privacy but are fragile to adversarial attacks. In contrast, the diversity within a large Rashomon set enables reactive robustness: even when an attack breaks one model, others often remain accurate. Rashomon sets are also stable under small distribution shifts. However, this same diversity increases information leakage, as disclosing more near-optimal models provides an attacker with progressively richer views of the training data. Through theoretical analysis and empirical studies of sparse decision trees and linear models, we characterize this robustness-privacy trade-off and highlight the dual role of Rashomon sets as both a resource and a risk for trustworthy ML.

Shihan Feng, Cheng Zhang, Michael Xi et al.

Modern neural networks rarely have a single way to be right. For many tasks, multiple models can achieve identical performance while relying on different features or reasoning patterns, a property known as the Rashomon Effect. However, uncovering this diversity in deep architectures is challenging as their continuous parameter spaces contain countless near-optimal solutions that are numerically distinct but often behaviorally similar. We introduce Rashomon Concept Bottleneck Models, a framework that learns multiple neural networks which are all accurate yet reason through distinct human-understandable concepts. By combining lightweight adapter modules with a diversity-regularized training objective, our method constructs a diverse set of deep concept-based models efficiently without retraining from scratch. The resulting networks provide fundamentally different reasoning processes for the same predictions, revealing how concept reliance and decision making vary across equally performing solutions. Our framework enables systematic exploration of data-driven reasoning diversity in deep models, offering a new mechanism for auditing, comparison, and alignment across equally accurate solutions.

Dennis Tang, Jon Donnelly, Alina Jade Barnett et al.

The presence of interictal epileptiform discharges (IEDs) in electroencephalogram (EEG) recordings is a critical biomarker of epilepsy. Even trained neurologists find detecting IEDs difficult, leading many practitioners to turn to machine learning for help. While existing machine learning algorithms can achieve strong accuracy on this task, most models are uninterpretable and cannot justify their conclusions. Absent the ability to understand model reasoning, doctors cannot leverage their expertise to identify incorrect model predictions and intervene accordingly. To improve the human-model interaction, we introduce ProtoEEG-kNN, an inherently interpretable model that follows a simple case-based reasoning process. ProtoEEG-kNN reasons by comparing an EEG to similar EEGs from the training set and visually demonstrates its reasoning both in terms of IED morphology (shape) and spatial distribution (location). We show that ProtoEEG-kNN can achieve state-of-the-art accuracy in IED detection while providing explanations that experts prefer over existing approaches.

Alex Oesterling, Angikar Ghosal, Haoyang Yu et al.

We present our entry into the 2021 3C Shared Task Citation Context Classification based on Purpose competition. The goal of the competition is to classify a citation in a scientific article based on its purpose. This task is important because it could potentially lead to more comprehensive ways of summarizing the purpose and uses of scientific articles, but it is also difficult, mainly due to the limited amount of available training data in which the purposes of each citation have been hand-labeled, along with the subjectivity of these labels. Our entry in the competition is a multi-task model that combines multiple modules designed to handle the problem from different perspectives, including hand-generated linguistic features, TF-IDF features, and an LSTM-with-attention model. We also provide an ablation study and feature analysis whose insights could lead to future work.

Cynthia Rudin, Chaofan Chen, Zhi Chen et al.

Interpretability in machine learning (ML) is crucial for high stakes decisions and troubleshooting. In this work, we provide fundamental principles for interpretable ML, and dispel common misunderstandings that dilute the importance of this crucial topic. We also identify 10 technical challenge areas in interpretable machine learning and provide history and background on each problem. Some of these problems are classically important, and some are recent problems that have arisen in the last few years. These problems are: (1) Optimizing sparse logical models such as decision trees; (2) Optimization of scoring systems; (3) Placing constraints into generalized additive models to encourage sparsity and better interpretability; (4) Modern case-based reasoning, including neural networks and matching for causal inference; (5) Complete supervised disentanglement of neural networks; (6) Complete or even partial unsupervised disentanglement of neural networks; (7) Dimensionality reduction for data visualization; (8) Machine learning models that can incorporate physics and other generative or causal constraints; (9) Characterization of the "Rashomon set" of good models; and (10) Interpretable reinforcement learning. This survey is suitable as a starting point for statisticians and computer scientists interested in working in interpretable machine learning.

Lesia Semenova, Cynthia Rudin, Ronald Parr

It is almost always easier to find an accurate-but-complex model than an accurate-yet-simple model. Finding optimal, sparse, accurate models of various forms (linear models with integer coefficients, decision sets, rule lists, decision trees) is generally NP-hard. We often do not know whether the search for a simpler model will be worthwhile, and thus we do not go to the trouble of searching for one. In this work, we ask an important practical question: can accurate-yet-simple models be proven to exist, or shown likely to exist, before explicitly searching for them? We hypothesize that there is an important reason that simple-yet-accurate models often do exist. This hypothesis is that the size of the Rashomon set is often large, where the Rashomon set is the set of almost-equally-accurate models from a function class. If the Rashomon set is large, it contains numerous accurate models, and perhaps at least one of them is the simple model we desire. In this work, we formally present the Rashomon ratio as a new gauge of simplicity for a learning problem, depending on a function class and a data set. The Rashomon ratio is the ratio of the volume of the set of accurate models to the volume of the hypothesis space, and it is different from standard complexity measures from statistical learning theory. Insight from studying the Rashomon ratio provides an easy way to check whether a simpler model might exist for a problem before finding it, namely whether several different machine learning methods achieve similar performance on the data. In that sense, the Rashomon ratio is a powerful tool for understanding why and when an accurate-yet-simple model might exist. If, as we hypothesize in this work, many real-world data sets admit large Rashomon sets, the implications are vast: it means that simple or interpretable models may often be used for high-stakes decisions without losing accuracy.

Siong Thye Goh, Lesia Semenova, Cynthia Rudin

We present sparse tree-based and list-based density estimation methods for binary/categorical data. Our density estimation models are higher dimensional analogies to variable bin width histograms. In each leaf of the tree (or list), the density is constant, similar to the flat density within the bin of a histogram. Histograms, however, cannot easily be visualized in more than two dimensions, whereas our models can. The accuracy of histograms fades as dimensions increase, whereas our models have priors that help with generalization. Our models are sparse, unlike high-dimensional fixed-bin histograms. We present three generative modeling methods, where the first one allows the user to specify the preferred number of leaves in the tree within a Bayesian prior. The second method allows the user to specify the preferred number of branches within the prior. The third method returns density lists (rather than trees) and allows the user to specify the preferred number of rules and the length of rules within the prior. The new approaches often yield a better balance between sparsity and accuracy of density estimates than other methods for this task. We present an application to crime analysis, where we estimate how unusual each type of modus operandi is for a house break-in.