Jean Pauphilet

Julien Grand-Clément, Jean Pauphilet

Many high-stake decisions follow an expert-in-loop structure in that a human operator receives recommendations from an algorithm but is the ultimate decision maker. Hence, the algorithm's recommendation may differ from the actual decision implemented in practice. However, most algorithmic recommendations are obtained by solving an optimization problem that assumes recommendations will be perfectly implemented. We propose an adherence-aware optimization framework to capture the dichotomy between the recommended and the implemented policy and analyze the impact of partial adherence on the optimal recommendation. We show that overlooking the partial adherence phenomenon, as is currently being done by most recommendation engines, can lead to arbitrarily severe performance deterioration, compared with both the current human baseline performance and what is expected by the recommendation algorithm. Our framework also provides useful tools to analyze the structure and to compute optimal recommendation policies that are naturally immune against such human deviations, and are guaranteed to improve upon the baseline policy.

Ryan Cory-Wright, Jean Pauphilet

Sparse Principal Component Analysis (sPCA) is a cardinal technique for obtaining combinations of features, or principal components (PCs), that explain the variance of high-dimensional datasets in an interpretable manner. This involves solving a sparsity and orthogonality constrained convex maximization problem, which is extremely computationally challenging. Most existing works address sparse PCA via methods-such as iteratively computing one sparse PC and deflating the covariance matrix-that do not guarantee the orthogonality, let alone the optimality, of the resulting solution when we seek multiple mutually orthogonal PCs. We challenge this status by reformulating the orthogonality conditions as rank constraints and optimizing over the sparsity and rank constraints simultaneously. We design tight semidefinite relaxations to supply high-quality upper bounds, which we strengthen via additional second-order cone inequalities when each PC's individual sparsity is specified. Further, we derive a combinatorial upper bound on the maximum amount of variance explained as a function of the support. We exploit these relaxations and bounds to propose exact methods and rounding mechanisms that, together, obtain solutions with a bound gap on the order of 0%-15% for real-world datasets with p = 100s or 1000s of features and r \in {2, 3} components. Numerically, our algorithms match (and sometimes surpass) the best performing methods in terms of fraction of variance explained and systematically return PCs that are sparse and orthogonal. In contrast, we find that existing methods like deflation return solutions that violate the orthogonality constraints, even when the data is generated according to sparse orthogonal PCs. Altogether, our approach solves sparse PCA problems with multiple components to certifiable (near) optimality in a practically tractable fashion.

Ryan Cory-Wright, Jean Pauphilet

We develop tractable convex relaxations for rank-constrained quadratic optimization problems over $n \times m$ matrices, a setting for which tractable relaxations are typically only available when the objective or constraints admit spectral (permutation-invariant) structure. We derive lifted semidefinite relaxations that do not require such spectral terms. Although a direct lifting introduces a large semidefinite constraint in dimension $n^2 + nm + 1$, we prove that many blocks of moment matrix are redundant and derive an equivalent compact relaxation that only involves two semidefinite constraints of dimension $nm + 1$ and $n+m$ respectively. For matrix completion, basis pursuit, and reduced-rank regression problems, we exploit additional structure to obtain even more compact formulations involving semidefinite matrices of dimension at most $2\max(n,m)$. Overall, we obtain scalable semidefinite bounds for a broad class of low-rank quadratic problems.

Dimitris Bertsimas, Arthur Delarue, Jean Pauphilet

When training predictive models on data with missing entries, the most widely used and versatile approach is a pipeline technique where we first impute missing entries and then compute predictions. In this paper, we view prediction with missing data as a two-stage adaptive optimization problem and propose a new class of models, adaptive linear regression models, where the regression coefficients adapt to the set of observed features. We show that some adaptive linear regression models are equivalent to learning an imputation rule and a downstream linear regression model simultaneously instead of sequentially. We leverage this joint-impute-then-regress interpretation to generalize our framework to non-linear models. In settings where data is strongly not missing at random, our methods achieve a 2-10% improvement in out-of-sample accuracy.

Ryan Cory-Wright, Jean Pauphilet

Inspired by the impact of the Goemans-Williamson algorithm on combinatorial optimization, we construct an analogous relax-then-round strategy for low-rank optimization problems. First, for orthogonally constrained quadratic optimization problems, we derive a semidefinite relaxation and a randomized rounding scheme that obtains provably near-optimal solutions, building on the blueprint from Goemans and Williamson for the Max-Cut problem. For a given $n \times m$ semi-orthogonal matrix, we derive a purely multiplicative approximation ratio for our algorithm, and show that it is never worse than $\max(2/(πm), 1/(π(\log (2m)+1)))$. We also show how to compute a tighter constant for a finite $(n,m)$ by solving a univariate optimization problem. We then extend our approach to generic low-rank optimization problems by developing new semidefinite relaxations that are both tighter and more broadly applicable than those in prior works. Although our original proposal introduces large semidefinite matrices as decision variables, we show that most of the blocks in these matrices can be safely omitted without altering the optimal value, hence improving the scalability of our approach. Using several examples (including matrix completion, basis pursuit, and reduced-rank regression), we show how to reduce the size of our relaxation even further. Finally, we numerically illustrate the effectiveness and scalability of our relaxation and sampling scheme on orthogonally constrained quadratic optimization and matrix completion problems.

Liangyuan Na, Kimberly Villalobos Carballo, Jean Pauphilet et al.

Problem definition: Access to accurate predictions of patients' outcomes can enhance medical staff's decision-making, which ultimately benefits all stakeholders in the hospitals. A large hospital network in the US has been collaborating with academics and consultants to predict short-term and long-term outcomes for all inpatients across their seven hospitals. Methodology/results: We develop machine learning models that predict the probabilities of next 24-hr/48-hr discharge and intensive care unit transfers, end-of-stay mortality and discharge dispositions. All models achieve high out-of-sample AUC (75.7%-92.5%) and are well calibrated. In addition, combining 48-hr discharge predictions with doctors' predictions simultaneously enables more patient discharges (10%-28.7%) and fewer 7-day/30-day readmissions ($p$-value $<0.001$). We implement an automated pipeline that extracts data and updates predictions every morning, as well as user-friendly software and a color-coded alert system to communicate these patient-level predictions (alongside explanations) to clinical teams. Managerial implications: Since we have been gradually deploying the tool, and training medical staff, over 200 doctors, nurses, and case managers across seven hospitals use it in their daily patient review process. We observe a significant reduction in the average length of stay (0.67 days per patient) following its adoption and anticipate substantial financial benefits (between \$55 and \$72 million annually) for the healthcare system.

Dimitris Bertsimas, Ryan Cory-Wright, Sean Lo et al.

Low-rank matrix completion consists of computing a matrix of minimal complexity that recovers a given set of observations as accurately as possible. Unfortunately, existing methods for matrix completion are heuristics that, while highly scalable and often identifying high-quality solutions, do not possess any optimality guarantees. We reexamine matrix completion with an optimality-oriented eye. We reformulate low-rank matrix completion problems as convex problems over the non-convex set of projection matrices and implement a disjunctive branch-and-bound scheme that solves them to certifiable optimality. Further, we derive a novel and often near-exact class of convex relaxations by decomposing a low-rank matrix as a sum of rank-one matrices and incentivizing that two-by-two minors in each rank-one matrix have determinant zero. In numerical experiments, our new convex relaxations decrease the optimality gap by two orders of magnitude compared to existing attempts, and our disjunctive branch-and-bound scheme solves $n \times m$ rank-$r$ matrix completion problems to certifiable optimality or near optimality in hours for $\max \{m, n\} \leq 2500$ and $r \leq 5$. Moreover, this improvement in the training error translates into an average $2\%$--$50\%$ improvement in the test set error.

Jean Pauphilet

Problem definition: Mining for heterogeneous responses to an intervention is a crucial step for data-driven operations, for instance to personalize treatment or pricing. We investigate how to estimate price sensitivity from transaction-level data. In causal inference terms, we estimate heterogeneous treatment effects when (a) the response to treatment (here, whether a customer buys a product) is binary, and (b) treatment assignments are partially observed (here, full information is only available for purchased items). Methodology/Results: We propose a recursive partitioning procedure to estimate heterogeneous odds ratio, a widely used measure of treatment effect in medicine and social sciences. We integrate an adversarial imputation step to allow for robust estimation even in presence of partially observed treatment assignments. We validate our methodology on synthetic data and apply it to three case studies from political science, medicine, and revenue management. Managerial Implications: Our robust heterogeneous odds ratio estimation method is a simple and intuitive tool to quantify heterogeneity in patients or customers and personalize interventions, while lifting a central limitation in many revenue management data.

Dimitris Bertsimas, Ryan Cory-Wright, Jean Pauphilet

A key question in many low-rank problems throughout optimization, machine learning, and statistics is to characterize the convex hulls of simple low-rank sets and judiciously apply these convex hulls to obtain strong yet computationally tractable convex relaxations. We invoke the matrix perspective function - the matrix analog of the perspective function - and characterize explicitly the convex hull of epigraphs of simple matrix convex functions under low-rank constraints. Further, we combine the matrix perspective function with orthogonal projection matrices-the matrix analog of binary variables which capture the row-space of a matrix-to develop a matrix perspective reformulation technique that reliably obtains strong relaxations for a variety of low-rank problems, including reduced rank regression, non-negative matrix factorization, and factor analysis. Moreover, we establish that these relaxations can be modeled via semidefinite constraints and thus optimized over tractably. The proposed approach parallels and generalizes the perspective reformulation technique in mixed-integer optimization and leads to new relaxations for a broad class of problems.

Dimitris Bertsimas, Arthur Delarue, Jean Pauphilet

Missing data is a common issue in real-world datasets. This paper studies the performance of impute-then-regress pipelines by contrasting theoretical and empirical evidence. We establish the asymptotic consistency of such pipelines for a broad family of imputation methods. While common sense suggests that a `good' imputation method produces datasets that are plausible, we show, on the contrary, that, as far as prediction is concerned, crude can be good. Among others, we find that mode-impute is asymptotically sub-optimal, while mean-impute is asymptotically optimal. We then exhaustively assess the validity of these theoretical conclusions on a large corpus of synthetic, semi-real, and real datasets. While the empirical evidence we collect mostly supports our theoretical findings, it also highlights gaps between theory and practice and opportunities for future research, regarding the relevance of the MAR assumption, the complex interdependency between the imputation and regression tasks, and the need for realistic synthetic data generation models.

Dimitris Bertsimas, Ryan Cory-Wright, Jean Pauphilet

We propose a framework for modeling and solving low-rank optimization problems to certifiable optimality. We introduce symmetric projection matrices that satisfy $Y^2=Y$, the matrix analog of binary variables that satisfy $z^2=z$, to model rank constraints. By leveraging regularization and strong duality, we prove that this modeling paradigm yields tractable convex optimization problems over the non-convex set of orthogonal projection matrices. Furthermore, we design outer-approximation algorithms to solve low-rank problems to certifiable optimality, compute lower bounds via their semidefinite relaxations, and provide near-optimal solutions through rounding and local search techniques. We implement these numerical ingredients and, for the first time, solve low-rank optimization problems to certifiable optimality. Using currently available spatial branch-and-bound codes, not tailored to projection matrices, we can scale our exact (resp. near-exact) algorithms to matrices with up to 30 (resp. 600) rows/columns. Our algorithms also supply certifiably near-optimal solutions for larger problem sizes and outperform existing heuristics, by deriving an alternative to the popular nuclear norm relaxation which generalizes the perspective relaxation from vectors to matrices. All in all, our framework, which we name Mixed-Projection Conic Optimization, solves low-rank problems to certifiable optimality in a tractable and unified fashion.

Dimitris Bertsimas, Léonard Boussioux, Ryan Cory Wright et al.

The COVID-19 pandemic has created unprecedented challenges worldwide. Strained healthcare providers make difficult decisions on patient triage, treatment and care management on a daily basis. Policy makers have imposed social distancing measures to slow the disease, at a steep economic price. We design analytical tools to support these decisions and combat the pandemic. Specifically, we propose a comprehensive data-driven approach to understand the clinical characteristics of COVID-19, predict its mortality, forecast its evolution, and ultimately alleviate its impact. By leveraging cohort-level clinical data, patient-level hospital data, and census-level epidemiological data, we develop an integrated four-step approach, combining descriptive, predictive and prescriptive analytics. First, we aggregate hundreds of clinical studies into the most comprehensive database on COVID-19 to paint a new macroscopic picture of the disease. Second, we build personalized calculators to predict the risk of infection and mortality as a function of demographics, symptoms, comorbidities, and lab values. Third, we develop a novel epidemiological model to project the pandemic's spread and inform social distancing policies. Fourth, we propose an optimization model to re-allocate ventilators and alleviate shortages. Our results have been used at the clinical level by several hospitals to triage patients, guide care management, plan ICU capacity, and re-distribute ventilators. At the policy level, they are currently supporting safe back-to-work policies at a major institution and equitable vaccine distribution planning at a major pharmaceutical company, and have been integrated into the US Center for Disease Control's pandemic forecast.

Dimitris Bertsimas, Ryan Cory-Wright, Jean Pauphilet

Sparse principal component analysis (PCA) is a popular dimensionality reduction technique for obtaining principal components which are linear combinations of a small subset of the original features. Existing approaches cannot supply certifiably optimal principal components with more than $p=100s$ of variables. By reformulating sparse PCA as a convex mixed-integer semidefinite optimization problem, we design a cutting-plane method which solves the problem to certifiable optimality at the scale of selecting k=5 covariates from p=300 variables, and provides small bound gaps at a larger scale. We also propose a convex relaxation and greedy rounding scheme that provides bound gaps of $1-2\%$ in practice within minutes for $p=100$s or hours for $p=1,000$s and is therefore a viable alternative to the exact method at scale. Using real-world financial and medical datasets, we illustrate our approach's ability to derive interpretable principal components tractably at scale.

Dimitris Bertsimas, Ryan Cory-Wright, Jean Pauphilet

We propose a unified framework to address a family of classical mixed-integer optimization problems with logically constrained decision variables, including network design, facility location, unit commitment, sparse portfolio selection, binary quadratic optimization, sparse principal analysis and sparse learning problems. These problems exhibit logical relationships between continuous and discrete variables, which are usually reformulated linearly using a big-M formulation. In this work, we challenge this longstanding modeling practice and express the logical constraints in a non-linear way. By imposing a regularization condition, we reformulate these problems as convex binary optimization problems, which are solvable using an outer-approximation procedure. In numerical experiments, we establish that a general-purpose numerical strategy, which combines cutting-plane, first-order and local search methods, solves these problems faster and at a larger scale than state-of-the-art mixed-integer linear or second-order cone methods. Our approach successfully solves network design problems with 100s of nodes and provides solutions up to 40\% better than the state-of-the-art; sparse portfolio selection problems with up to 3,200 securities compared with 400 securities for previous attempts; and sparse regression problems with up to 100,000 covariates.

Dimitris Bertsimas, Jourdain Lamperski, Jean Pauphilet

We consider the maximum likelihood estimation of sparse inverse covariance matrices. We demonstrate that current heuristic approaches primarily encourage robustness, instead of the desired sparsity. We give a novel approach that solves the cardinality constrained likelihood problem to certifiable optimality. The approach uses techniques from mixed-integer optimization and convex optimization, and provides a high-quality solution with a guarantee on its suboptimality, even if the algorithm is terminated early. Using a variety of synthetic and real datasets, we demonstrate that our approach can solve problems where the dimension of the inverse covariance matrix is up to 1,000s. We also demonstrate that our approach produces significantly sparser solutions than Glasso and other popular learning procedures, makes less false discoveries, while still maintaining state-of-the-art accuracy.