Mansur M. Arief

Mansur M. Arief

The bullwhip effect remains operationally persistent despite decades of analytical research. Two computational deficiencies hinder progress: the absence of modular open-source simulation tools for multi-echelon inventory dynamics with asymmetric costs, and the lack of a standardized benchmarking protocol for comparing mitigation strategies across shared metrics and datasets. This paper introduces deepbullwhip, an open-source Python package that integrates a simulation engine for serial supply chains (with pluggable demand generators, ordering policies, and cost functions via abstract base classes, and a vectorized Monte Carlo engine achieving 50 to 90 times speedup) with a registry-based benchmarking framework shipping a curated catalog of ordering policies, forecasting methods, six bullwhip metrics, and demand datasets including WSTS semiconductor billings. Five sets of experiments on a four-echelon semiconductor chain demonstrate cumulative amplification of 427x (Monte Carlo mean across 1,000 paths), a stochastic filtering phenomenon at upstream tiers (CV = 0.01), super-exponential lead time sensitivity, and scalability to 20.8 million simulation cells in under 7 seconds. Benchmark experiments reveal a 155x disparity between synthetic AR(1) and real WSTS bullwhip severity under the Order-Up-To policy, and quantify the BWR-NSAmp tradeoff across ordering policies, demonstrating that no single metric captures policy quality.

Nur Ahmad Khatim, Ahmad Azmul Asmar Irfan, Amaliya Mata'ul Hayah et al.

This study addresses the challenge of stroke diagnosis and treatment under uncertainty, a critical issue given the rapid progression and severe consequences of stroke conditions such as aneurysms, arteriovenous malformations (AVM), and occlusions. Current diagnostic methods, including Digital Subtraction Angiography (DSA), face limitations due to high costs and its invasive nature. To overcome these challenges, we propose a novel approach using a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) framework. Our model integrates advanced diagnostic tools and treatment approaches with a decision-making algorithm that accounts for the inherent uncertainties in stroke diagnosis. Our approach combines noisy observations from CT scans, Siriraj scores, and DSA reports to inform the subsequent treatment options. We utilize the online solver DESPOT, which employs tree-search methods and particle filters, to simulate potential future scenarios and guide our strategies. The results indicate that our POMDP framework balances diagnostic and treatment objectives, striking a tradeoff between the need for precise stroke identification via invasive procedures like DSA and the constraints of limited healthcare resources that necessitate more cost-effective strategies, such as in-hospital or at-home observation, by relying only relying on simulation rollouts and not imposing any prior knowledge. Our study offers a significant contribution by presenting a systematic framework that optimally integrates diagnostic and treatment processes for stroke and accounting for various uncertainties, thereby improving care and outcomes in stroke management.

Nur Ahmad Khatim, Azmul Asmar Irfan, Mansur M. Arief

One of the critical issues contributing to inefficiency in Puskesmas (Indonesian community health centers) is the time-consuming nature of documenting doctor-patient interactions. Doctors must conduct thorough consultations and manually transcribe detailed notes into ePuskesmas electronic health records (EHR), which creates substantial administrative burden to already overcapacitated physicians. This paper presents a proof-of-concept framework using large language models (LLMs) to automate real-time transcription and summarization of doctor-patient conversations in Bahasa Indonesia. Our system combines Whisper model for transcription with GPT-3.5 for medical summarization, implemented as a browser extension that automatically populates ePuskesmas forms. Through controlled roleplay experiments with medical validation, we demonstrate the technical feasibility of processing detailed 300+ seconds trimmed consultations in under 30 seconds while maintaining clinical accuracy. This work establishes the foundation for AI-assisted clinical documentation in resource-constrained healthcare environments. However, concerns have also been raised regarding privacy compliance and large-scale clinical evaluation addressing language and cultural biases for LLMs.

Azmul A. Irfan, Nur Ahmad Khatim, Alfan Alfian Irfan et al.

Radiographic grading of knee osteoarthritis (KOA) with the Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) system is limited by inter-reader variability and the opacity of current deep learning approaches, which predict KL grades directly from images without decomposing structural features. We present Knee-xRAI, a modular framework that independently quantifies the three cardinal radiographic features of KOA (joint space narrowing [JSN], osteophytes, and subchondral sclerosis) and integrates them into an explainable KL grade classification. The pipeline combines U-Net++ segmentation for contour-based JSN measurement, an SE-ResNet-50 network for per-site osteophyte grading (OARSI scale), and a hybrid texture-CNN classifier for binary sclerosis quantification. The resulting 50-dimensional structured feature vector feeds two complementary classification paths. An XGBoost path supports SHAP-based feature attribution. A ConvNeXt hybrid path combines the structured vector with a full-image encoder for enhanced predictive performance. Evaluated on 8,260 radiographs from an OAI-derived dataset, the JSN module achieved a Dice coefficient of 0.8909 and an mJSW intraclass correlation of 0.8674 against manual annotations. The ConvNeXt hybrid path reached a test quadratic weighted kappa (QWK) of 0.8436 and AUC of 0.9017. The transparent XGBoost path achieved a test QWK of 0.6294 with full feature-level audit capability. Ablation confirmed JSN as the dominant predictor (QWK = 0.6103 alone), with osteophyte features providing consistent incremental gain (+0.0183) and sclerosis contributing marginally. Inference-time ablation of Path B confirmed the structured pathway contributes materially beyond the image encoder, with QWK drops of 0.098 (feature zeroing) and 0.284 (feature-image permutation). Knee-xRAI explicitly quantifies all three KL-defining radiographic features within a single auditable pipeline.

Liam A. Kruse, Alexandros E. Tzikas, Harrison Delecki et al. · stanford

Importance sampling is a rare event simulation technique used in Monte Carlo simulations to bias the sampling distribution towards the rare event of interest. By assigning appropriate weights to sampled points, importance sampling allows for more efficient estimation of rare events or tails of distributions. However, importance sampling can fail when the proposal distribution does not effectively cover the target distribution. In this work, we propose a method for more efficient sampling by updating the proposal distribution in the latent space of a normalizing flow. Normalizing flows learn an invertible mapping from a target distribution to a simpler latent distribution. The latent space can be more easily explored during the search for a proposal distribution, and samples from the proposal distribution are recovered in the space of the target distribution via the invertible mapping. We empirically validate our methodology on simulated robotics applications such as autonomous racing and aircraft ground collision avoidance.