Wathsala Karunarathne

Kwong Ho Li, Wathsala Karunarathne

This paper investigates the application of Reinforcement Learning (RL) to optimise call routing in call centres to minimise client waiting time and staff idle time. Two methods are compared: a model-based approach using Value Iteration (VI) under known system dynamics, and a model-free approach using Proximal Policy Optimisation (PPO) that learns from experience. For the model-based approach, a theoretical model is used, while a simulation model combining Discrete Event Simulation (DES) with the OpenAI Gym environment is developed for model-free learning. Both models frame the problem as a Markov Decision Process (MDP) within a Skills-Based Routing (SBR) framework, with Poisson client arrivals and exponentially distributed service and abandonment times. For policy evaluation, random, VI, and PPO policies are evaluated using the simulation model. After 1,000 test episodes, PPO consistently achives the highest rewards, along with the lowest client waiting time and staff idle time, despite requiring longer training time.

Kwong Ho Li, Matthew Roughan, Wathsala Karunarathne

Staff absenteeism imposes substantial operational costs in high-demand work environments such as healthcare, emergency services, meat processing, construction, and courier and delivery services, where proactive workforce planning depends on reliable individual-level absence prediction. Existing regression and classification approaches share a structural limitation; they map features observed at time t to labels at the same time t, reproducing already-realised outcomes rather than predicting future events, and discard the sequential behavioural structure inherent in individual attendance histories. We propose a Time Series Classification (TSC) framework that separates historical attendance sequences from future absence labels, enabling genuinely proactive prediction. Due to the lack of public longitudinal attendance data, we construct a reproducible simulated dataset calibrated to the UCI dataset. We analyse Binary Focal Loss (BFL) and Geometric Mean (G-Mean) loss under severe class imbalance using only the imbalance ratio $ρ$. For BFL, the initial gradient ratio is $ρα/(1-α)$, implying the balanced weight $α= 1/(1+ρ) \approx 0.023$. Experiments show that performance is governed mainly by $α$, with BFL achieving specificity 0.813 and balanced accuracy 0.888, comparable to G-Mean. Unlike BFL, G-Mean adapts automatically without parameter calibration. Among three deep learning architectures evaluated, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), and the hybrid LSTM-Fully Convolutional Network (LSTM-FCN), the LSTM-FCN delivers strong precision and specificity. Stable performance is obtained with batch sizes >= 64 and window sizes between 40-80 days, yielding balanced accuracy of approximately 80% on held-out test data.