Stephan Mandt

Sungduk Yu, Zeyuan Hu, Akshay Subramaniam et al.

Modern climate projections lack adequate spatial and temporal resolution due to computational constraints, leading to inaccuracies in representing critical processes like thunderstorms that occur on the sub-resolution scale. Hybrid methods combining physics with machine learning (ML) offer faster, higher fidelity climate simulations by outsourcing compute-hungry, high-resolution simulations to ML emulators. However, these hybrid ML-physics simulations require domain-specific data and workflows that have been inaccessible to many ML experts. As an extension of the ClimSim dataset (Yu et al., 2024), we present ClimSim-Online, which also includes an end-to-end workflow for developing hybrid ML-physics simulators. The ClimSim dataset includes 5.7 billion pairs of multivariate input/output vectors, capturing the influence of high-resolution, high-fidelity physics on a host climate simulator's macro-scale state. The dataset is global and spans ten years at a high sampling frequency. We provide a cross-platform, containerized pipeline to integrate ML models into operational climate simulators for hybrid testing. We also implement various ML baselines, alongside a hybrid baseline simulator, to highlight the ML challenges of building stable, skillful emulators. The data (https://huggingface.co/datasets/LEAP/ClimSim_high-res) and code (https://leap-stc.github.io/ClimSim and https://github.com/leap-stc/climsim-online) are publicly released to support the development of hybrid ML-physics and high-fidelity climate simulations.

Ruihan Yang, Stephan Mandt

This paper outlines an end-to-end optimized lossy image compression framework using diffusion generative models. The approach relies on the transform coding paradigm, where an image is mapped into a latent space for entropy coding and, from there, mapped back to the data space for reconstruction. In contrast to VAE-based neural compression, where the (mean) decoder is a deterministic neural network, our decoder is a conditional diffusion model. Our approach thus introduces an additional ``content'' latent variable on which the reverse diffusion process is conditioned and uses this variable to store information about the image. The remaining ``texture'' variables characterizing the diffusion process are synthesized at decoding time. We show that the model's performance can be tuned toward perceptual metrics of interest. Our extensive experiments involving multiple datasets and image quality assessment metrics show that our approach yields stronger reported FID scores than the GAN-based model, while also yielding competitive performance with VAE-based models in several distortion metrics. Furthermore, training the diffusion with $\mathcal{X}$-parameterization enables high-quality reconstructions in only a handful of decoding steps, greatly affecting the model's practicality. Our code is available at: \url{https://github.com/buggyyang/CDC_compression}

Yibo Yang, Stephan Mandt

Neural image compression methods have seen increasingly strong performance in recent years. However, they suffer orders of magnitude higher computational complexity compared to traditional codecs, which hinders their real-world deployment. This paper takes a step forward towards closing this gap in decoding complexity by using a shallow or even linear decoding transform resembling that of JPEG. To compensate for the resulting drop in compression performance, we exploit the often asymmetrical computation budget between encoding and decoding, by adopting more powerful encoder networks and iterative encoding. We theoretically formalize the intuition behind, and our experimental results establish a new frontier in the trade-off between rate-distortion and decoding complexity for neural image compression. Specifically, we achieve rate-distortion performance competitive with the established mean-scale hyperprior architecture of Minnen et al. (2018) at less than 50K decoding FLOPs/pixel, reducing the baseline's overall decoding complexity by 80%, or over 90% for the synthesis transform alone. Our code can be found at https://github.com/mandt-lab/shallow-ntc.

Thomas Specht, Mayank Nagda, Sophie Fellenz et al.

We present the first hard-constraint neural network for predicting activity coefficients (HANNA), a thermodynamic mixture property that is the basis for many applications in science and engineering. Unlike traditional neural networks, which ignore physical laws and result in inconsistent predictions, our model is designed to strictly adhere to all thermodynamic consistency criteria. By leveraging deep-set neural networks, HANNA maintains symmetry under the permutation of the components. Furthermore, by hard-coding physical constraints in the network architecture, we ensure consistency with the Gibbs-Duhem equation and in modeling the pure components. The model was trained and evaluated on 317,421 data points for activity coefficients in binary mixtures from the Dortmund Data Bank, achieving significantly higher prediction accuracies than the current state-of-the-art model UNIFAC. Moreover, HANNA only requires the SMILES of the components as input, making it applicable to any binary mixture of interest. HANNA is fully open-source and available for free use.

Aodong Li, Chen Qiu, Marius Kloft et al.

Anomaly detection (AD) plays a crucial role in many safety-critical application domains. The challenge of adapting an anomaly detector to drift in the normal data distribution, especially when no training data is available for the "new normal," has led to the development of zero-shot AD techniques. In this paper, we propose a simple yet effective method called Adaptive Centered Representations (ACR) for zero-shot batch-level AD. Our approach trains off-the-shelf deep anomaly detectors (such as deep SVDD) to adapt to a set of inter-related training data distributions in combination with batch normalization, enabling automatic zero-shot generalization for unseen AD tasks. This simple recipe, batch normalization plus meta-training, is a highly effective and versatile tool. Our theoretical results guarantee the zero-shot generalization for unseen AD tasks; our empirical results demonstrate the first zero-shot AD results for tabular data and outperform existing methods in zero-shot anomaly detection and segmentation on image data from specialized domains. Code is at https://github.com/aodongli/zero-shot-ad-via-batch-norm

Chen Qiu, Marius Kloft, Stephan Mandt et al.

Graph-level anomaly detection has become a critical topic in diverse areas, such as financial fraud detection and detecting anomalous activities in social networks. While most research has focused on anomaly detection for visual data such as images, where high detection accuracies have been obtained, existing deep learning approaches for graphs currently show considerably worse performance. This paper raises the bar on graph-level anomaly detection, i.e., the task of detecting abnormal graphs in a set of graphs. By drawing on ideas from self-supervised learning and transformation learning, we present a new deep learning approach that significantly improves existing deep one-class approaches by fixing some of their known problems, including hypersphere collapse and performance flip. Experiments on nine real-world data sets involving nine techniques reveal that our method achieves an average performance improvement of 11.8% AUC compared to the best existing approach.

Ruihan Yang, Prakhar Srivastava, Stephan Mandt

Denoising diffusion probabilistic models are a promising new class of generative models that mark a milestone in high-quality image generation. This paper showcases their ability to sequentially generate video, surpassing prior methods in perceptual and probabilistic forecasting metrics. We propose an autoregressive, end-to-end optimized video diffusion model inspired by recent advances in neural video compression. The model successively generates future frames by correcting a deterministic next-frame prediction using a stochastic residual generated by an inverse diffusion process. We compare this approach against five baselines on four datasets involving natural and simulation-based videos. We find significant improvements in terms of perceptual quality for all datasets. Furthermore, by introducing a scalable version of the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) applicable to video, we show that our model also outperforms existing approaches in their probabilistic frame forecasting ability.

Kushagra Pandey, Stephan Mandt

Score-based Generative Models (SGMs) have demonstrated exceptional synthesis outcomes across various tasks. However, the current design landscape of the forward diffusion process remains largely untapped and often relies on physical heuristics or simplifying assumptions. Utilizing insights from the development of scalable Bayesian posterior samplers, we present a complete recipe for formulating forward processes in SGMs, ensuring convergence to the desired target distribution. Our approach reveals that several existing SGMs can be seen as specific manifestations of our framework. Building upon this method, we introduce Phase Space Langevin Diffusion (PSLD), which relies on score-based modeling within an augmented space enriched by auxiliary variables akin to physical phase space. Empirical results exhibit the superior sample quality and improved speed-quality trade-off of PSLD compared to various competing approaches on established image synthesis benchmarks. Remarkably, PSLD achieves sample quality akin to state-of-the-art SGMs (FID: 2.10 for unconditional CIFAR-10 generation). Lastly, we demonstrate the applicability of PSLD in conditional synthesis using pre-trained score networks, offering an appealing alternative as an SGM backbone for future advancements. Code and model checkpoints can be accessed at \url{https://github.com/mandt-lab/PSLD}.

Kushagra Pandey, Maja Rudolph, Stephan Mandt

Diffusion models suffer from slow sample generation at inference time. Therefore, developing a principled framework for fast deterministic/stochastic sampling for a broader class of diffusion models is a promising direction. We propose two complementary frameworks for accelerating sample generation in pre-trained models: Conjugate Integrators and Splitting Integrators. Conjugate integrators generalize DDIM, mapping the reverse diffusion dynamics to a more amenable space for sampling. In contrast, splitting-based integrators, commonly used in molecular dynamics, reduce the numerical simulation error by cleverly alternating between numerical updates involving the data and auxiliary variables. After extensively studying these methods empirically and theoretically, we present a hybrid method that leads to the best-reported performance for diffusion models in augmented spaces. Applied to Phase Space Langevin Diffusion [Pandey & Mandt, 2023] on CIFAR-10, our deterministic and stochastic samplers achieve FID scores of 2.11 and 2.36 in only 100 network function evaluations (NFE) as compared to 2.57 and 2.63 for the best-performing baselines, respectively. Our code and model checkpoints will be made publicly available at \url{https://github.com/mandt-lab/PSLD}.

Alex Boyd, Sam Showalter, Stephan Mandt et al.

In reasoning about sequential events it is natural to pose probabilistic queries such as "when will event A occur next" or "what is the probability of A occurring before B", with applications in areas such as user modeling, medicine, and finance. However, with machine learning shifting towards neural autoregressive models such as RNNs and transformers, probabilistic querying has been largely restricted to simple cases such as next-event prediction. This is in part due to the fact that future querying involves marginalization over large path spaces, which is not straightforward to do efficiently in such models. In this paper we introduce a general typology for predictive queries in neural autoregressive sequence models and show that such queries can be systematically represented by sets of elementary building blocks. We leverage this typology to develop new query estimation methods based on beam search, importance sampling, and hybrids. Across four large-scale sequence datasets from different application domains, as well as for the GPT-2 language model, we demonstrate the ability to make query answering tractable for arbitrary queries in exponentially-large predictive path-spaces, and find clear differences in cost-accuracy tradeoffs between search and sampling methods.

Fabian Hartung, Billy Joe Franks, Tobias Michels et al.

This paper provides the first comprehensive evaluation and analysis of modern (deep-learning) unsupervised anomaly detection methods for chemical process data. We focus on the Tennessee Eastman process dataset, which has been a standard litmus test to benchmark anomaly detection methods for nearly three decades. Our extensive study will facilitate choosing appropriate anomaly detection methods in industrial applications.

Aodong Li, Chen Qiu, Marius Kloft et al.

Selecting informative data points for expert feedback can significantly improve the performance of anomaly detection (AD) in various contexts, such as medical diagnostics or fraud detection. In this paper, we determine a set of theoretical conditions under which anomaly scores generalize from labeled queries to unlabeled data. Motivated by these results, we propose a data labeling strategy with optimal data coverage under labeling budget constraints. In addition, we propose a new learning framework for semi-supervised AD. Extensive experiments on image, tabular, and video data sets show that our approach results in state-of-the-art semi-supervised AD performance under labeling budget constraints.

Felix Draxler, Justus Will, Farrin Marouf Sofian et al.

Autoregressive decoding in language models is inherently slow, generating only one token per forward pass. We propose Parallel Token Prediction (PTP), a general-purpose framework for predicting multiple tokens in a single model call. PTP moves the source of randomness from post-hoc sampling to random input variables, making future tokens deterministic functions of those inputs and thus jointly predictable in a single forward pass. We prove that a single PTP call can represent arbitrary dependencies between tokens. PTP is trained by distilling an existing model or through inverse autoregressive training without a teacher. Experimentally, PTP achieves a 2.4x speedup on a diverse-task speculative decoding benchmark. We provide code and checkpoints at https://github.com/mandt-lab/ptp.

Yoshitomo Matsubara, Ruihan Yang, Marco Levorato et al.

With the increasing demand for deep learning models on mobile devices, splitting neural network computation between the device and a more powerful edge server has become an attractive solution. However, existing split computing approaches often underperform compared to a naive baseline of remote computation on compressed data. Recent studies propose learning compressed representations that contain more relevant information for supervised downstream tasks, showing improved tradeoffs between compressed data size and supervised performance. However, existing evaluation metrics only provide an incomplete picture of split computing. This study introduces supervised compression for split computing (SC2) and proposes new evaluation criteria: minimizing computation on the mobile device, minimizing transmitted data size, and maximizing model accuracy. We conduct a comprehensive benchmark study using 10 baseline methods, three computer vision tasks, and over 180 trained models, and discuss various aspects of SC2. We also release sc2bench, a Python package for future research on SC2. Our proposed metrics and package will help researchers better understand the tradeoffs of supervised compression in split computing.

Yibo Yang, Stephan Eckstein, Marcel Nutz et al.

In the theory of lossy compression, the rate-distortion (R-D) function $R(D)$ describes how much a data source can be compressed (in bit-rate) at any given level of fidelity (distortion). Obtaining $R(D)$ for a given data source establishes the fundamental performance limit for all compression algorithms. We propose a new method to estimate $R(D)$ from the perspective of optimal transport. Unlike the classic Blahut--Arimoto algorithm which fixes the support of the reproduction distribution in advance, our Wasserstein gradient descent algorithm learns the support of the optimal reproduction distribution by moving particles. We prove its local convergence and analyze the sample complexity of our R-D estimator based on a connection to entropic optimal transport. Experimentally, we obtain comparable or tighter bounds than state-of-the-art neural network methods on low-rate sources while requiring considerably less tuning and computation effort. We also highlight a connection to maximum-likelihood deconvolution and introduce a new class of sources that can be used as test cases with known solutions to the R-D problem.

Ba-Hien Tran, Babak Shahbaba, Stephan Mandt et al.

Autoencoders and their variants are among the most widely used models in representation learning and generative modeling. However, autoencoder-based models usually assume that the learned representations are i.i.d. and fail to capture the correlations between the data samples. To address this issue, we propose a novel Sparse Gaussian Process Bayesian Autoencoder (SGPBAE) model in which we impose fully Bayesian sparse Gaussian Process priors on the latent space of a Bayesian Autoencoder. We perform posterior estimation for this model via stochastic gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. We evaluate our approach qualitatively and quantitatively on a wide range of representation learning and generative modeling tasks and show that our approach consistently outperforms multiple alternatives relying on Variational Autoencoders.

Nicolas Hayer, Thorsten Wendel, Stephan Mandt et al.

Accurate prediction of thermodynamic properties is pivotal in chemical engineering for optimizing process efficiency and sustainability. Physical group-contribution (GC) methods are widely employed for this purpose but suffer from historically grown, incomplete parameterizations, limiting their applicability and accuracy. In this work, we overcome these limitations by combining GC with matrix completion methods (MCM) from machine learning. We use the novel approach to predict a complete set of pair-interaction parameters for the most successful GC method: UNIFAC, the workhorse for predicting activity coefficients in liquid mixtures. The resulting new method, UNIFAC 2.0, is trained and validated on more than 224,000 experimental data points, showcasing significantly enhanced prediction accuracy (e.g., nearly halving the mean squared error) and increased scope by eliminating gaps in the original model's parameter table. Moreover, the generic nature of the approach facilitates updating the method with new data or tailoring it to specific applications.

Eliot Wong-Toi, Alex Boyd, Vincent Fortuin et al.

Deep, overparameterized regression models are notorious for their tendency to overfit. This problem is exacerbated in heteroskedastic models, which predict both mean and residual noise for each data point. At one extreme, these models fit all training data perfectly, eliminating residual noise entirely; at the other, they overfit the residual noise while predicting a constant, uninformative mean. We observe a lack of middle ground, suggesting a phase transition dependent on model regularization strength. Empirical verification supports this conjecture by fitting numerous models with varying mean and variance regularization. To explain the transition, we develop a theoretical framework based on a statistical field theory, yielding qualitative agreement with experiments. As a practical consequence, our analysis simplifies hyperparameter tuning from a two-dimensional to a one-dimensional search, substantially reducing the computational burden. Experiments on diverse datasets, including UCI datasets and the large-scale ClimSim climate dataset, demonstrate significantly improved performance in various calibration tasks.

Francesco Immorlano, Veronika Eyring, Thomas le Monnier de Gouville et al.

Precise and reliable climate projections are required for climate adaptation and mitigation, but Earth system models still exhibit great uncertainties. Several approaches have been developed to reduce the spread of climate projections and feedbacks, yet those methods cannot capture the nonlinear complexity inherent in the climate system. Using a Transfer Learning approach, we show that Machine Learning can be used to optimally leverage and merge the knowledge gained from global temperature maps simulated by Earth system models and observed in the historical period to reduce the spread of global surface air temperature fields projected in the 21st century. We reach an uncertainty reduction of more than 50% with respect to state-of-the-art approaches while giving evidence that our method provides improved regional temperature patterns together with narrower projections uncertainty, urgently required for climate adaptation.

Alex Boyd, Yuxin Chang, Stephan Mandt et al.

Continuous-time event sequences, i.e., sequences consisting of continuous time stamps and associated event types ("marks"), are an important type of sequential data with many applications, e.g., in clinical medicine or user behavior modeling. Since these data are typically modeled autoregressively (e.g., using neural Hawkes processes or their classical counterparts), it is natural to ask questions about future scenarios such as "what kind of event will occur next" or "will an event of type $A$ occur before one of type $B$". Unfortunately, some of these queries are notoriously hard to address since current methods are limited to naive simulation, which can be highly inefficient. This paper introduces a new typology of query types and a framework for addressing them using importance sampling. Example queries include predicting the $n^\text{th}$ event type in a sequence and the hitting time distribution of one or more event types. We also leverage these findings further to be applicable for estimating general "$A$ before $B$" type of queries. We prove theoretically that our estimation method is effectively always better than naive simulation and show empirically based on three real-world datasets that it is on average 1,000 times more efficient than existing approaches.

Eshant English, Eliot Wong-Toi, Matteo Fontana et al.

Conformal prediction provides machine learning models with prediction sets that offer theoretical guarantees, but the underlying assumption of exchangeability limits its applicability to time series data. Furthermore, existing approaches struggle to handle multi-step ahead prediction tasks, where uncertainty estimates across multiple future time points are crucial. We propose JANET (Joint Adaptive predictioN-region Estimation for Time-series), a novel framework for constructing conformal prediction regions that are valid for both univariate and multivariate time series. JANET generalises the inductive conformal framework and efficiently produces joint prediction regions with controlled K-familywise error rates, enabling flexible adaptation to specific application needs. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates JANET's superior performance in multi-step prediction tasks across diverse time series datasets, highlighting its potential for reliable and interpretable uncertainty quantification in sequential data.

Metod Jazbec, Patrick Forré, Stephan Mandt et al.

Early-exit neural networks (EENNs) enable adaptive and efficient inference by providing predictions at multiple stages during the forward pass. In safety-critical applications, these predictions are meaningful only when accompanied by reliable uncertainty estimates. A popular method for quantifying the uncertainty of predictive models is the use of prediction sets. However, we demonstrate that standard techniques such as conformal prediction and Bayesian credible sets are not suitable for EENNs. They tend to generate non-nested sets across exits, meaning that labels deemed improbable at one exit may reappear in the prediction set of a subsequent exit. To address this issue, we investigate anytime-valid confidence sequences (AVCSs), an extension of traditional confidence intervals tailored for data-streaming scenarios. These sequences are inherently nested and thus well-suited for an EENN's sequential predictions. We explore the theoretical and practical challenges of using AVCSs in EENNs and show that they indeed yield nested sets across exits. Thus our work presents a promising approach towards fast, yet still safe, predictive modeling

Theo X. Olausson, Metod Jazbec, Xi Wang et al.

Much work has been done on designing fast and accurate sampling for diffusion language models (dLLMs). However, these efforts have largely focused on the tradeoff between speed and quality of individual samples; how to additionally ensure diversity across samples remains less well understood. In this work, we show that diversity can be increased by using softened, tempered versions of familiar confidence-based remasking heuristics, retaining their computational benefits and offering simple implementations. We motivate this approach by introducing an idealized formal model of fork tokens and studying the impact of remasking on the expected entropy at the forks. Empirically, the proposed tempered heuristics close the exploration gap (pass@k) between existing confidence-based and autoregressive sampling, hence outperforming both when controlling for cost (pass@NFE). We further study how the increase in diversity translates to downstream post-training and test-time compute scaling. Overall, our findings demonstrate that simple, efficient, and diverse sampling from dLLMs is possible.

Duong H. Le, Tuan Pham, Sangho Lee et al. · allen-ai

We introduce OneDiffusion, a versatile, large-scale diffusion model that seamlessly supports bidirectional image synthesis and understanding across diverse tasks. It enables conditional generation from inputs such as text, depth, pose, layout, and semantic maps, while also handling tasks like image deblurring, upscaling, and reverse processes such as depth estimation and segmentation. Additionally, OneDiffusion allows for multi-view generation, camera pose estimation, and instant personalization using sequential image inputs. Our model takes a straightforward yet effective approach by treating all tasks as frame sequences with varying noise scales during training, allowing any frame to act as a conditioning image at inference time. Our unified training framework removes the need for specialized architectures, supports scalable multi-task training, and adapts smoothly to any resolution, enhancing both generalization and scalability. Experimental results demonstrate competitive performance across tasks in both generation and prediction such as text-to-image, multiview generation, ID preservation, depth estimation and camera pose estimation despite relatively small training dataset. Our code and checkpoint are freely available at https://github.com/lehduong/OneDiffusion

Mayank Nagda, Phil Ostheimer, Thomas Specht et al.

Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) solve partial differential equations using deep learning. However, conventional PINNs perform pointwise predictions that neglect dependencies within a domain, which may result in suboptimal solutions. We introduce SetPINNs, a framework that effectively captures local dependencies. With a finite element-inspired sampling scheme, we partition the domain into sets to model local dependencies while simultaneously enforcing physical laws. We provide a rigorous theoretical analysis showing that SetPINNs yield unbiased, lower-variance estimates of residual energy and its gradients, ensuring improved domain coverage and reduced residual error. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world tasks show improved accuracy, efficiency, and robustness.

Daniel Geyfman, Felix Draxler, Jan Groeneveld et al.

Test-time guidance is a widely used mechanism for steering pretrained diffusion models toward outcomes specified by a reward function. Existing approaches, however, focus on maximizing reward rather than sampling from the true Bayesian posterior, leading to miscalibrated inference. In this work, we show that common test-time guidance methods do not recover the correct posterior distribution and identify the structural approximations responsible for this failure. We then propose consistent alternative estimators that enable calibrated sampling from the Bayesian posterior. We significantly outperform previous methods on a set of Bayesian inference tasks, and match state-of-the-art in black hole image reconstruction.

Kushagra Pandey, Farrin Marouf Sofian, Jan Niklas Groeneveld et al.

Adapting pretrained diffusion models to downstream objectives such as inverse problems often requires expensive test-time guidance or optimization. We propose a principled framework for generating high-quality reward-aligned samples at substantially reduced inference cost. Our approach formulates test-time adaptation as a hierarchical variational model, where control is amortized into a lightweight yet expressive stochastic policy. This formulation naturally supports few-step diffusion sampling: large step sizes enable fast inference, while the learned policy maintains sample quality by providing structured per-step control. The resulting fully amortized sampler achieves a strong quality--speed tradeoff, matching or exceeding recent test-time scaling baselines while requiring significantly less compute. For example, on 4x super-resolution, our method achieves better perceptual quality with more than 5x faster inference compared to the best-performing baseline. We further extend our approach to a semi-amortized regime that combines cheap amortized proposals with limited test-time optimization, achieving state-of-the-art perceptual quality across several challenging inverse problems.

Justus C. Will, Andrea M. Jenney, Kara D. Lamb et al.

Thorough analysis of local droplet-level interactions is crucial to better understand the microphysical processes in clouds and their effect on the global climate. High-accuracy simulations of relevant droplet size distributions from Large Eddy Simulations (LES) of bin microphysics challenge current analysis techniques due to their high dimensionality involving three spatial dimensions, time, and a continuous range of droplet sizes. Utilizing the compact latent representations from Variational Autoencoders (VAEs), we produce novel and intuitive visualizations for the organization of droplet sizes and their evolution over time beyond what is possible with clustering techniques. This greatly improves interpretation and allows us to examine aerosol-cloud interactions by contrasting simulations with different aerosol concentrations. We find that the evolution of the droplet spectrum is similar across aerosol levels but occurs at different paces. This similarity suggests that precipitation initiation processes are alike despite variations in onset times.

Thanh-Tung Le, Tuan Pham, Tung Nguyen et al.

Novel view synthesis (NVS) seeks to render photorealistic, 3D-consistent images of a scene from unseen camera poses given only a sparse set of posed views. Existing deterministic networks render observed regions quickly but blur unobserved areas, whereas stochastic diffusion-based methods hallucinate plausible content yet incur heavy training- and inference-time costs. In this paper, we propose a hybrid framework that unifies the strengths of both paradigms. A bidirectional transformer encodes multi-view image tokens and Plucker-ray embeddings, producing a shared latent representation. Two lightweight heads then act on this representation: (i) a feed-forward regression head that renders pixels where geometry is well constrained, and (ii) a masked autoregressive diffusion head that completes occluded or unseen regions. The entire model is trained end-to-end with joint photometric and diffusion losses, without handcrafted 3D inductive biases, enabling scalability across diverse scenes. Experiments demonstrate that our method attains state-of-the-art image quality while reducing rendering time by an order of magnitude compared with fully generative baselines.

Kushagra Pandey, Farrin Marouf Sofian, Felix Draxler et al.

Diffusion models exhibit excellent sample quality, but existing guidance methods often require additional model training or are limited to specific tasks. We revisit guidance in diffusion models from the perspective of variational inference and control, introducing Diffusion Trajectory Matching (DTM) that enables guiding pretrained diffusion trajectories to satisfy a terminal cost. DTM unifies a broad class of guidance methods and enables novel instantiations. We introduce a new method within this framework that achieves state-of-the-art results on several linear, non-linear, and blind inverse problems without requiring additional model training or specificity to pixel or latent space diffusion models. Our code will be available at https://github.com/czi-ai/oc-guidance

Yibo Yang, Stephan Mandt

Rate-distortion (R-D) function, a key quantity in information theory, characterizes the fundamental limit of how much a data source can be compressed subject to a fidelity criterion, by any compression algorithm. As researchers push for ever-improving compression performance, establishing the R-D function of a given data source is not only of scientific interest, but also sheds light on the possible room for improving compression algorithms. Previous work on this problem relied on distributional assumptions on the data source (Gibson, 2017) or only applied to discrete data (Blahut, 1972; Arimoto, 1972). By contrast, this paper makes the first attempt at an algorithm for sandwiching the R-D function of a general (not necessarily discrete) source requiring only i.i.d. data samples. We estimate R-D sandwich bounds for a variety of artificial and real-world data sources, in settings far beyond the feasibility of any known method, and shed light on the optimality of neural data compression (Ballé et al., 2021; Yang et al., 2022). Our R-D upper bound on natural images indicates theoretical room for improving state-of-the-art image compression methods by at least one dB in PSNR at various bitrates. Our data and code can be found at https://github.com/mandt-lab/empirical-RD-sandwich.

Theodore Papamarkou, Maria Skoularidou, Konstantina Palla et al.

In the current landscape of deep learning research, there is a predominant emphasis on achieving high predictive accuracy in supervised tasks involving large image and language datasets. However, a broader perspective reveals a multitude of overlooked metrics, tasks, and data types, such as uncertainty, active and continual learning, and scientific data, that demand attention. Bayesian deep learning (BDL) constitutes a promising avenue, offering advantages across these diverse settings. This paper posits that BDL can elevate the capabilities of deep learning. It revisits the strengths of BDL, acknowledges existing challenges, and highlights some exciting research avenues aimed at addressing these obstacles. Looking ahead, the discussion focuses on possible ways to combine large-scale foundation models with BDL to unlock their full potential.

Laura Manduchi, Clara Meister, Kushagra Pandey et al.

The field of deep generative modeling has grown rapidly in the last few years. With the availability of massive amounts of training data coupled with advances in scalable unsupervised learning paradigms, recent large-scale generative models show tremendous promise in synthesizing high-resolution images and text, as well as structured data such as videos and molecules. However, we argue that current large-scale generative AI models exhibit several fundamental shortcomings that hinder their widespread adoption across domains. In this work, our objective is to identify these issues and highlight key unresolved challenges in modern generative AI paradigms that should be addressed to further enhance their capabilities, versatility, and reliability. By identifying these challenges, we aim to provide researchers with insights for exploring fruitful research directions, thus fostering the development of more robust and accessible generative AI solutions.

Phil Sidney Ostheimer, Mayank Nagda, Andriy Balinskyy et al.

Diffusion models (DMs) excel on dense continuous data, but are not designed for sparse continuous data. They do not model exact zeros that represent the deliberate absence of a signal. As a result, they erase sparsity patterns and perform unnecessary computation on mostly zero entries. With Sparsity-Exploiting Diffusion (SED), we model only non-zero values, preserving sparsity. SED delivers computational savings while maintaining or improving generation quality by skipping zeros during training and inference. Across physics and biology benchmarks, SED matches or surpasses conventional DMs and domain-specific baselines, while vision experiments provide intuitive insights into the limitations of dense DMs and the benefits of SED.

Kushagra Pandey, Jaideep Pathak, Yilun Xu et al.

Diffusion models achieve state-of-the-art generation quality across many applications, but their ability to capture rare or extreme events in heavy-tailed distributions remains unclear. In this work, we show that traditional diffusion and flow-matching models with standard Gaussian priors fail to capture heavy-tailed behavior. We address this by repurposing the diffusion framework for heavy-tail estimation using multivariate Student-t distributions. We develop a tailored perturbation kernel and derive the denoising posterior based on the conditional Student-t distribution for the backward process. Inspired by $γ$-divergence for heavy-tailed distributions, we derive a training objective for heavy-tailed denoisers. The resulting framework introduces controllable tail generation using only a single scalar hyperparameter, making it easily tunable for diverse real-world distributions. As specific instantiations of our framework, we introduce t-EDM and t-Flow, extensions of existing diffusion and flow models that employ a Student-t prior. Remarkably, our approach is readily compatible with standard Gaussian diffusion models and requires only minimal code changes. Empirically, we show that our t-EDM and t-Flow outperform standard diffusion models in heavy-tail estimation on high-resolution weather datasets in which generating rare and extreme events is crucial.

Prakhar Srivastava, Ruihan Yang, Gavin Kerrigan et al.

In climate science and meteorology, high-resolution local precipitation (rain and snowfall) predictions are limited by the computational costs of simulation-based methods. Statistical downscaling, or super-resolution, is a common workaround where a low-resolution prediction is improved using statistical approaches. Unlike traditional computer vision tasks, weather and climate applications require capturing the accurate conditional distribution of high-resolution given low-resolution patterns to assure reliable ensemble averages and unbiased estimates of extreme events, such as heavy rain. This work extends recent video diffusion models to precipitation super-resolution, employing a deterministic downscaler followed by a temporally-conditioned diffusion model to capture noise characteristics and high-frequency patterns. We test our approach on FV3GFS output, an established large-scale global atmosphere model, and compare it against six state-of-the-art baselines. Our analysis, capturing CRPS, MSE, precipitation distributions, and qualitative aspects using California and the Himalayas as examples, establishes our method as a new standard for data-driven precipitation downscaling.

Thomas M. Sutter, Yang Meng, Andrea Agostini et al.

Variational Autoencoders for multimodal data hold promise for many tasks in data analysis, such as representation learning, conditional generation, and imputation. Current architectures either share the encoder output, decoder input, or both across modalities to learn a shared representation. Such architectures impose hard constraints on the model. In this work, we show that a better latent representation can be obtained by replacing these hard constraints with a soft constraint. We propose a new mixture-of-experts prior, softly guiding each modality's latent representation towards a shared aggregate posterior. This approach results in a superior latent representation and allows each encoding to preserve information better from its uncompressed original features. In extensive experiments on multiple benchmark datasets and two challenging real-world datasets, we show improved learned latent representations and imputation of missing data modalities compared to existing methods.

Max Defez, Filippo Quarenghi, Mathieu Vrac et al.

Deep-learning video super-resolution has progressed rapidly, but climate applications typically super-resolve (increase resolution) either space or time, and joint spatiotemporal models are often designed for a single pair of super-resolution (SR) factors (upscaling spatial and temporal ratio between the low-resolution sequence and the high-resolution sequence), limiting transfer across spatial resolutions and temporal cadences (frame rates). We present a scale-adaptive framework that reuses the same architecture across factors by decomposing spatiotemporal SR into a deterministic prediction of the conditional mean, with attention, and a residual conditional diffusion model, with an optional mass-conservation (same precipitation amount in inputs and outputs) transform to preserve aggregated totals. Assuming that larger SR factors primarily increase underdetermination (hence required context and residual uncertainty) rather than changing the conditional-mean structure, scale adaptivity is achieved by retuning three factor-dependent hyperparameters before retraining: the diffusion noise schedule amplitude beta (larger for larger factors to increase diversity), the temporal context length L (set to maintain comparable attention horizons across cadences) and optionally a third, the mass-conservation function f (tapered to limit the amplification of extremes for large factors). Demonstrated on reanalysis precipitation over France (Comephore), the same architecture spans super-resolution factors from 1 to 25 in space and 1 to 6 in time, yielding a reusable architecture and tuning recipe for joint spatiotemporal super-resolution across scales.

Yibo Yang, Justus C. Will, Stephan Mandt

Diffusion probabilistic models have achieved mainstream success in many generative modeling tasks, from image generation to inverse problem solving. A distinct feature of these models is that they correspond to deep hierarchical latent variable models optimizing a variational evidence lower bound (ELBO) on the data likelihood. Drawing on a basic connection between likelihood modeling and compression, we explore the potential of diffusion models for progressive coding, resulting in a sequence of bits that can be incrementally transmitted and decoded with progressively improving reconstruction quality. Unlike prior work based on Gaussian diffusion or conditional diffusion models, we propose a new form of diffusion model with uniform noise in the forward process, whose negative ELBO corresponds to the end-to-end compression cost using universal quantization. We obtain promising first results on image compression, achieving competitive rate-distortion and rate-realism results on a wide range of bit-rates with a single model, bringing neural codecs a step closer to practical deployment.

Metod Jazbec, Eliot Wong-Toi, Guoxuan Xia et al.

Diffusion models have recently driven significant breakthroughs in generative modeling. While state-of-the-art models produce high-quality samples on average, individual samples can still be low quality. Detecting such samples without human inspection remains a challenging task. To address this, we propose a Bayesian framework for estimating generative uncertainty of synthetic samples. We outline how to make Bayesian inference practical for large, modern generative models and introduce a new semantic likelihood (evaluated in the latent space of a feature extractor) to address the challenges posed by high-dimensional sample spaces. Through our experiments, we demonstrate that the proposed generative uncertainty effectively identifies poor-quality samples and significantly outperforms existing uncertainty-based methods. Notably, our Bayesian framework can be applied post-hoc to any pretrained diffusion or flow matching model (via the Laplace approximation), and we propose simple yet effective techniques to minimize its computational overhead during sampling.

Andrea Agostini, Daphné Chopard, Yang Meng et al.

Multimodal data integration and label scarcity pose significant challenges for machine learning in medical settings. To address these issues, we conduct an in-depth evaluation of the newly proposed Multimodal Variational Mixture-of-Experts (MMVM) VAE on the challenging MIMIC-CXR dataset. Our analysis demonstrates that the MMVM VAE consistently outperforms other multimodal VAEs and fully supervised approaches, highlighting its strong potential for real-world medical applications.

Niluthpol Chowdhury Mithun, Tuan Pham, Qiao Wang et al.

Recent advancements in 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) and Neural Radiance Fields (NeRF) have achieved impressive results in real-time 3D reconstruction and novel view synthesis. However, these methods struggle in large-scale, unconstrained environments where sparse and uneven input coverage, transient occlusions, appearance variability, and inconsistent camera settings lead to degraded quality. We propose GS-Diff, a novel 3DGS framework guided by a multi-view diffusion model to address these limitations. By generating pseudo-observations conditioned on multi-view inputs, our method transforms under-constrained 3D reconstruction problems into well-posed ones, enabling robust optimization even with sparse data. GS-Diff further integrates several enhancements, including appearance embedding, monocular depth priors, dynamic object modeling, anisotropy regularization, and advanced rasterization techniques, to tackle geometric and photometric challenges in real-world settings. Experiments on four benchmarks demonstrate that GS-Diff consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines by significant margins.

Phil Ostheimer, Mayank Nagda, Jean Radig et al.

Sparse data is ubiquitous, appearing in numerous domains, from economics and recommender systems to astronomy and biomedical sciences. However, efficiently generating high-fidelity synthetic sparse data remains a significant challenge. We introduce Sparse Data Diffusion (SDD), a novel method for generating sparse data. SDD extends continuous state-space diffusion models with an explicit representation of exact zeros by modeling sparsity through the introduction of Sparsity Bits. Empirical validation in various domains, including two scientific applications in physics and biology, demonstrates that SDD achieves high fidelity in representing data sparsity while preserving the quality of the generated data.

Yibo Yang, Stephan Mandt

Popularized by their strong image generation performance, diffusion and related methods for generative modeling have found widespread success in visual media applications. In particular, diffusion methods have enabled new approaches to data compression, where realistic reconstructions can be generated at extremely low bit-rates. This article provides a unifying review of recent diffusion-based methods for generative lossy compression, with a focus on image compression. These methods generally encode the source into an embedding and employ a diffusion model to iteratively refine it in the decoding procedure, such that the final reconstruction approximately follows the ground truth data distribution. The embedding can take various forms and is typically transmitted via an auxiliary entropy model, and recent methods also explore the use of diffusion models themselves for information transmission via channel simulation. We review representative approaches through the lens of rate-distortion-perception theory, highlighting the role of common randomness and connections to inverse problems, and identify open challenges.

Sonia Laguna, Andrea Agostini, Alain Ryser et al.

Building robust medical machine learning systems requires pretraining strategies that exploit the intrinsic structure present in clinical data. We introduce Multiview Masked Autoencoder (MVMAE), a self-supervised framework that leverages the natural multi-view organization of radiology studies to learn view-invariant and disease-relevant representations. MVMAE combines masked image reconstruction with cross-view alignment, transforming clinical redundancy across projections into a powerful self-supervisory signal. We further extend this approach with MVMAE-V2T, which incorporates radiology reports as an auxiliary text-based learning signal to enhance semantic grounding while preserving fully vision-based inference. Evaluated on a downstream disease classification task on three large-scale public datasets, MIMIC-CXR, CheXpert, and PadChest, MVMAE consistently outperforms supervised and vision-language baselines. Furthermore, MVMAE-V2T provides additional gains, particularly in low-label regimes where structured textual supervision is most beneficial. Together, these results establish the importance of structural and textual supervision as complementary paths toward scalable, clinically grounded medical foundation models.

Eliot Wong-Toi, Alex Boyd, Vincent Fortuin et al.

Uncertainty quantification is vital for decision-making and risk assessment in machine learning. Mean-variance regression models, which predict both a mean and residual noise for each data point, provide a simple approach to uncertainty quantification. However, overparameterized mean-variance models struggle with signal-to-noise ambiguity, deciding whether prediction targets should be attributed to signal (mean) or noise (variance). At one extreme, models fit all training targets perfectly with zero residual noise, while at the other, they provide constant, uninformative predictions and explain the targets as noise. We observe a sharp phase transition between these extremes, driven by model regularization. Empirical studies with varying regularization levels illustrate this transition, revealing substantial variability across repeated runs. To explain this behavior, we develop a statistical field theory framework, which captures the observed phase transition in alignment with experimental results. This analysis reduces the regularization hyperparameter search space from two dimensions to one, significantly lowering computational costs. Experiments on UCI datasets and the large-scale ClimSim dataset demonstrate robust calibration performance, effectively quantifying predictive uncertainty.

Tuan Pham, Thanh-Tung Le, Xiaohui Xie et al.

We introduce a novel framework for metric depth estimation that enhances pretrained diffusion-based monocular depth estimation (DB-MDE) models with stereo vision guidance. While existing DB-MDE methods excel at predicting relative depth, estimating absolute metric depth remains challenging due to scale ambiguities in single-image scenarios. To address this, we reframe depth estimation as an inverse problem, leveraging pretrained latent diffusion models (LDMs) conditioned on RGB images, combined with stereo-based geometric constraints, to learn scale and shift for accurate depth recovery. Our training-free solution seamlessly integrates into existing DB-MDE frameworks and generalizes across indoor, outdoor, and complex environments. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach matches or surpasses state-of-the-art methods, particularly in challenging scenarios involving translucent and specular surfaces, all without requiring retraining.

Dennis Wagner, Arjun Nair, Billy Joe Franks et al.

Undetected anomalies in time series can trigger catastrophic failures in safety-critical systems, such as chemical plant explosions or power grid outages. Although many detection methods have been proposed, their performance remains unclear because current metrics capture only narrow aspects of the task and often yield misleading results. We address this issue by introducing verifiable properties that formalize essential requirements for evaluating time-series anomaly detection. These properties enable a theoretical framework that supports principled evaluations and reliable comparisons. Analyzing 37 widely used metrics, we show that most satisfy only a few properties, and none satisfy all, explaining persistent inconsistencies in prior results. To close this gap, we propose LARM, a flexible metric that provably satisfies all properties, and extend it to ALARM, an advanced variant meeting stricter requirements.

Mayank Nagda, Phil Ostheimer, Justus Arweiler et al.

Style transfer combines the content of one signal with the style of another. It supports applications such as data augmentation and scenario simulation, helping machine learning models generalize in data-scarce domains. While well developed in vision and language, style transfer methods for time series data remain limited. We introduce DiffTSST, a diffusion-based framework that disentangles a time series into content and style representations via convolutional encoders and recombines them through a self-supervised attention-based diffusion process. At inference, encoders extract content and style from two distinct series, enabling conditional generation of novel samples to achieve style transfer. We demonstrate both qualitatively and quantitatively that DiffTSST achieves effective style transfer. We further validate its real-world utility by showing that data augmentation with DiffTSST improves anomaly detection in data-scarce regimes.

Prakhar Srivastava, Farrin Marouf Sofian, Francesco Immorlano et al.

Despite recent advances in test-time scaling and finetuning of diffusion models, guidance in Auto-Regressive Diffusion Models (ARDMs) remains underexplored. We introduce an amortized framework that augments pretrained ARDMs with a lightweight controller network, trained offline by previewing future ARDM rollouts and learning stepwise controls that anticipate upcoming observations under a terminal cost objective. We evaluate this framework in the context of data assimilation (DA) for chaotic spatiotemporal partial differential equations (PDEs), a setting where existing methods are often computationally prohibitive and prone to forecast drift under sparse observations. Our approach reduces DA inference to a single forward rollout with on-the-fly corrections, avoiding expensive adjoint computations and/or optimizations during inference. We demonstrate that our method consistently outperforms four state-of-the-art baselines in stability, accuracy, and physical fidelity across two canonical PDEs and six observation regimes. We will release code and checkpoints publicly.