Mehdi Neshat

Mehdi Neshat, Michael Phipps, Chris A. Browne et al.

Predicting hospital length of stay (LoS) stands as a critical factor in shaping public health strategies. This data serves as a cornerstone for governments to discern trends, patterns, and avenues for enhancing healthcare delivery. In this study, we introduce a robust hybrid deep learning model, a combination of Multi-layer Convolutional (CNNs) deep learning, Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), and Dense neural networks, that outperforms 11 conventional and state-of-the-art Machine Learning (ML) and Deep Learning (DL) methodologies in accurately forecasting inpatient hospital stay duration. Our investigation delves into the implementation of this hybrid model, scrutinising variables like geographic indicators tied to caregiving institutions, demographic markers encompassing patient ethnicity, race, and age, as well as medical attributes such as the CCS diagnosis code, APR DRG code, illness severity metrics, and hospital stay duration. Statistical evaluations reveal the pinnacle LoS accuracy achieved by our proposed model (CNN-GRU-DNN), which averages at 89% across a 10-fold cross-validation test, surpassing LSTM, BiLSTM, GRU, and Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) by 19%, 18.2%, 18.6%, and 7%, respectively. Accurate LoS predictions not only empower hospitals to optimise resource allocation and curb expenses associated with prolonged stays but also pave the way for novel strategies in hospital stay management. This avenue holds promise for catalysing advancements in healthcare research and innovation, inspiring a new era of precision-driven healthcare practices.

Harshika Goyal, Mohammad Saif Wajid, Mohd Anas Wajid et al.

The rapid advancement of deepfake technologies, specifically designed to create incredibly lifelike facial imagery and video content, has ignited a remarkable level of interest and curiosity across many fields, including forensic analysis, cybersecurity and the innovative creation of digital characters. By harnessing the latest breakthroughs in deep learning methods, such as Generative Adversarial Networks, Variational Autoencoders, Few-Shot Learning Strategies, and Transformers, the outcomes achieved in generating deepfakes have been nothing short of astounding and transformative. Also, the ongoing evolution of detection technologies is being developed to counteract the potential for misuse associated with deepfakes, effectively addressing critical concerns that range from political manipulation to the dissemination of fake news and the ever-growing issue of cyberbullying. This comprehensive review paper meticulously investigates the most recent developments in deepfake generation and detection, including around 400 publications, providing an in-depth analysis of the cutting-edge innovations shaping this rapidly evolving landscape. Starting with a thorough examination of systematic literature review methodologies, we embark on a journey that delves into the complex technical intricacies inherent in the various techniques used for deepfake generation, comprehensively addressing the challenges faced, potential solutions available, and the nuanced details surrounding manipulation formulations. Subsequently, the paper is dedicated to accurately benchmarking leading approaches against prominent datasets, offering thorough assessments of the contributions that have significantly impacted these vital domains. Ultimately, we engage in a thoughtful discussion of the existing challenges, paving the way for continuous advancements in this critical and ever-dynamic study area.

Mehdi Neshat, Michael Phipps, Nikhil Jha et al.

Over an extensive duration, administrators and clinicians have endeavoured to predict Emergency Department (ED) visits with precision, aiming to optimise resource distribution. Despite the proliferation of diverse AI-driven models tailored for precise prognostication, this task persists as a formidable challenge, besieged by constraints such as restrained generalisability, susceptibility to overfitting and underfitting, scalability issues, and complex fine-tuning hyper-parameters. In this study, we introduce a novel Meta-learning Gradient Booster (Meta-ED) approach for precisely forecasting daily ED visits and leveraging a comprehensive dataset of exogenous variables, including socio-demographic characteristics, healthcare service use, chronic diseases, diagnosis, and climate parameters spanning 23 years from Canberra Hospital in ACT, Australia. The proposed Meta-ED consists of four foundational learners-Catboost, Random Forest, Extra Tree, and lightGBoost-alongside a dependable top-level learner, Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), by combining the unique capabilities of varied base models (sub-learners). Our study assesses the efficacy of the Meta-ED model through an extensive comparative analysis involving 23 models. The evaluation outcomes reveal a notable superiority of Meta-ED over the other models in accuracy at 85.7% (95% CI ;85.4%, 86.0%) and across a spectrum of 10 evaluation metrics. Notably, when compared with prominent techniques, XGBoost, Random Forest (RF), AdaBoost, LightGBoost, and Extra Tree (ExT), Meta-ED showcases substantial accuracy enhancements of 58.6%, 106.3%, 22.3%, 7.0%, and 15.7%, respectively. Furthermore, incorporating weather-related features demonstrates a 3.25% improvement in the prediction accuracy of visitors' numbers. The encouraging outcomes of our study underscore Meta-ED as a foundation model for the precise prediction of daily ED visitors.

Erfan Amini, Hossein Mehdipour, Emilio Faraggiana et al.

Ocean wave renewable energy is fast becoming a key part of renewable energy industries over the recent decades. By developing wave energy converters as the main converter technology in this process, their power take-off (PTO) systems have been investigated. Adjusting PTO parameters is a challenging optimization problem because there is a complex and nonlinear relationship between these parameters and the absorbed power output. In this regard, this study aims to optimize the PTO system parameters of a point absorber wave energy converter in the wave scenario in Perth, on Western Australian coasts. The converter is numerically designed to oscillate against irregular and multi-dimensional waves and sensitivity analysis for PTO settings is performed. Then, to find the optimal PTO system parameters which lead to the highest power output, ten optimization algorithms are incorporated to solve the non-linear problem, Including Nelder-Mead search method, Active-set method, Sequential quadratic Programming method (SQP), Multi-Verse Optimizer (MVO), and six modified combination of Genetic, Surrogate and fminsearch algorithms. After a feasibility landscape analysis, the optimization outcome is carried out and gives us the best answer in terms of PTO system settings. Finally, the investigation shows that the modified combinations of Genetic, Surrogate, and fminsearch algorithms can outperform the others in the studied wave scenario, as well as the interaction between PTO system variables.

Martin Schlueter, Mehdi Neshat, Mohamed Wahib et al.

This contribution introduces the GTOPX space mission benchmark collection, which is an extension of GTOP database published by the European Space Agency (ESA). GTOPX consists of ten individual benchmark instances representing real-world interplanetary space trajectory design problems. In regard to the original GTOP collection, GTOPX includes three new problem instances featuring mixed-integer and multi-objective properties. GTOPX enables a simplified user handling, unified benchmark function call and some minor bug corrections to the original GTOP implementation. Furthermore, GTOPX is linked from it's original C++ source code to Python and Matlab based on dynamic link libraries, assuring computationally fast and accurate reproduction of the benchmark results in all three programming languages. Space mission trajectory design problems as those represented in GTOPX are known to be highly non-linear and difficult to solve. The GTOPX collection, therefore, aims particularly at researchers wishing to put advanced (meta)heuristic and hybrid optimization algorithms to the test. The goal of this paper is to provide researchers with a manual and reference to the newly available GTOPX benchmark software.

Mehdi Neshat, Meysam Majidi Nezhad, Ehsan Abbasnejad et al.

Reliable wind turbine power prediction is imperative to the planning, scheduling and control of wind energy farms for stable power production. In recent years Machine Learning (ML) methods have been successfully applied in a wide range of domains, including renewable energy. However, due to the challenging nature of power prediction in wind farms, current models are far short of the accuracy required by industry. In this paper, we deploy a composite ML approach--namely a hybrid neuro-evolutionary algorithm--for accurate forecasting of the power output in wind-turbine farms. We use historical data in the supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) systems as input to estimate the power output from an onshore wind farm in Sweden. At the beginning stage, the k-means clustering method and an Autoencoder are employed, respectively, to detect and filter noise in the SCADA measurements. Next, with the prior knowledge that the underlying wind patterns are highly non-linear and diverse, we combine a self-adaptive differential evolution (SaDE) algorithm as a hyper-parameter optimizer, and a recurrent neural network (RNN) called Long Short-term memory (LSTM) to model the power curve of a wind turbine in a farm. Two short time forecasting horizons, including ten-minutes ahead and one-hour ahead, are considered in our experiments. We show that our approach outperforms its counterparts.

Mehdi Neshat, Bradley Alexander, Nataliia Y. Sergiienko et al.

Wave energy is a fast-developing and promising renewable energy resource. The primary goal of this research is to maximise the total harnessed power of a large wave farm consisting of fully-submerged three-tether wave energy converters (WECs). Energy maximisation for large farms is a challenging search problem due to the costly calculations of the hydrodynamic interactions between WECs in a large wave farm and the high dimensionality of the search space. To address this problem, we propose a new hybrid multi-strategy evolutionary framework combining smart initialisation, binary population-based evolutionary algorithm, discrete local search and continuous global optimisation. For assessing the performance of the proposed hybrid method, we compare it with a wide variety of state-of-the-art optimisation approaches, including six continuous evolutionary algorithms, four discrete search techniques and three hybrid optimisation methods. The results show that the proposed method performs considerably better in terms of convergence speed and farm output.

Mehdi Neshat, Meysam Majidi Nezhad, Ehsan Abbasnejad et al.

Accurate short-term wind speed forecasting is essential for large-scale integration of wind power generation. However, the seasonal and stochastic characteristics of wind speed make forecasting a challenging task. This study uses a new hybrid evolutionary approach that uses a popular evolutionary search algorithm, CMA-ES, to tune the hyper-parameters of two Long short-term memory(LSTM) ANN models for wind prediction. The proposed hybrid approach is trained on data gathered from an offshore wind turbine installed in a Swedish wind farm located in the Baltic Sea. Two forecasting horizons including ten-minutes ahead (absolute short term) and one-hour ahead (short term) are considered in our experiments. Our experimental results indicate that the new approach is superior to five other applied machine learning models, i.e., polynomial neural network (PNN), feed-forward neural network (FNN), nonlinear autoregressive neural network (NAR) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), as measured by five performance criteria.

Nataliia Y. Sergiienko, Mehdi Neshat, Leandro S. P. da Silva et al.

A wave energy converter (WEC) similar to the CETO system developed by Carnegie Clean Energy is considered for design optimisation. This WEC is able to absorb power from heave, surge and pitch motion modes, making the optimisation problem nontrivial. The WEC dynamics is simulated using the spectral-domain model taking into account hydrodynamic forces, viscous drag, and power take-off forces. The design parameters for optimisation include the buoy radius, buoy height, tether inclination angles, and control variables (damping and stiffness). The WEC design is optimised for the wave climate at Albany test site in Western Australia considering unidirectional irregular waves. Two objective functions are considered: (i) maximisation of the annual average power output, and (ii) minimisation of the levelised cost of energy (LCoE) for a given sea site. The LCoE calculation is approximated as a ratio of the produced energy to the significant mass of the system that includes the mass of the buoy and anchor system. Six different heuristic optimisation methods are applied in order to evaluate and compare the performance of the best known evolutionary algorithms, a swarm intelligence technique and a numerical optimisation approach. The results demonstrate that if we are interested in maximising energy production without taking into account the cost of manufacturing such a system, the buoy should be built as large as possible (20 m radius and 30 m height). However, if we want the system that produces cheap energy, then the radius of the buoy should be approximately 11-14~m while the height should be as low as possible. These results coincide with the overall design that Carnegie Clean Energy has selected for its CETO 6 multi-moored unit. However, it should be noted that this study is not informed by them, so this can be seen as an independent validation of the design choices.

Mehdi Neshat, Bradley Alexander, Markus Wagner

Wave energy technologies have the potential to play a significant role in the supply of renewable energy on a world scale. One of the most promising designs for wave energy converters (WECs) are fully submerged buoys. In this work, we explore the optimisation of WEC arrays consisting of a three-tether buoy model called CETO. Such arrays can be optimised for total energy output by adjusting both the relative positions of buoys in farms and also the power-take-off (PTO) parameters for each buoy. The search space for these parameters is complex and multi-modal. Moreover, the evaluation of each parameter setting is computationally expensive -- limiting the number of full model evaluations that can be made. To handle this problem, we propose a new hybrid cooperative co-evolution algorithm (HCCA). HCCA consists of a symmetric local search plus Nelder-Mead and a cooperative co-evolution algorithm (CC) with a backtracking strategy for optimising the positions and PTO settings of WECs, respectively. Moreover, a new adaptive scenario is proposed for tuning grey wolf optimiser (AGWO) hyper-parameter. AGWO participates notably with other applied optimisers in HCCA. For assessing the effectiveness of the proposed approach five popular Evolutionary Algorithms (EAs), four alternating optimisation methods and two modern hybrid ideas (LS-NM and SLS-NM-B) are carefully compared in four real wave situations (Adelaide, Tasmania, Sydney and Perth) with two wave farm sizes (4 and 16). According to the experimental outcomes, the hybrid cooperative framework exhibits better performance in terms of both runtime and quality of obtained solutions.

Mehdi Neshat, Bradley Alexander, Angus Simpson

Water distribution system design is a challenging optimisation problem with a high number of search dimensions and constraints. In this way, Evolutionary Algorithms (EAs) have been widely applied to optimise WDS to minimise cost subject whilst meeting pressure constraints. This paper proposes a new hybrid evolutionary framework that consists of three distinct phases. The first phase applied CMA-ES, a robust adaptive meta-heuristic for continuous optimisation. This is followed by an upward-greedy search phase to remove pressure violations. Finally, a downward greedy search phase is used to reduce oversized pipes. To assess the effectiveness of the hybrid method, it was applied to five well-known WDSs case studies. The results reveal that the new framework outperforms CMA-ES by itself and other previously applied heuristics on most benchmarks in terms of both optimisation speed and network cost.

Mehdi Neshat, Ehsan Abbasnejad, Qinfeng Shi et al.

The installed amount of renewable energy has expanded massively in recent years. Wave energy, with its high capacity factors has great potential to complement established sources of solar and wind energy. This study explores the problem of optimising the layout of advanced, three-tether wave energy converters in a size-constrained farm in a numerically modelled ocean environment. Simulating and computing the complicated hydrodynamic interactions in wave farms can be computationally costly, which limits optimisation methods to have just a few thousand evaluations. For dealing with this expensive optimisation problem, an adaptive neuro-surrogate optimisation (ANSO) method is proposed that consists of a surrogate Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) model trained with a very limited number of observations. This model is coupled with a fast meta-heuristic optimiser for adjusting the model's hyper-parameters. The trained model is applied using a greedy local search with a backtracking optimisation strategy. For evaluating the performance of the proposed approach, some of the more popular and successful Evolutionary Algorithms (EAs) are compared in four real wave scenarios (Sydney, Perth, Adelaide and Tasmania). Experimental results show that the adaptive neuro model is competitive with other optimisation methods in terms of total harnessed power output and faster in terms of total computational costs.

Mehdi Neshat, Bradley Alexander, Nataliia Sergiienko et al.

Renewable energy, such as ocean wave energy, plays a pivotal role in addressing the tremendous growth of global energy demand. It is expected that wave energy will be one of the fastest-growing energy resources in the next decade, offering an enormous potential source of sustainable energy. This research investigates the placement optimization of oscillating buoy-type wave energy converters (WEC). The design of a wave farm consisting of an array of fully submerged three-tether buoys is evaluated. In a wave farm, buoy positions have a notable impact on the farm's output. Optimizing the buoy positions is a challenging research problem because of very complex interactions (constructive and destructive) between buoys. The main purpose of this research is maximizing the power output of the farm through the placement of buoys in a size-constrained environment. This paper proposes a new hybrid approach of the heuristic local search combined with a numerical optimization method that utilizes a knowledge-based surrogate power model. We compare the proposed hybrid method with other state-of-the-art search methods in five different wave scenarios -- one simplified irregular wave model and four real wave climates. Our method considerably outperforms all previous heuristic methods in terms of both quality of achieved solutions and the convergence-rate of search in all tested wave regimes.

Mehdi Neshat, Bradley Alexander, Nataliia Sergiienko et al.

Ocean wave energy is a source of renewable energy that has gained much attention for its potential to contribute significantly to meeting the global energy demand. In this research, we investigate the problem of maximising the energy delivered by farms of wave energy converters (WEC's). We consider state-of-the-art fully submerged three-tether converters deployed in arrays. The goal of this work is to use heuristic search to optimise the power output of arrays in a size-constrained environment by configuring WEC locations and the power-take-off (PTO) settings for each WEC. Modelling the complex hydrodynamic interactions in wave farms is expensive, which constrains search to only a few thousand model evaluations. We explore a variety of heuristic approaches including cooperative and hybrid methods. The effectiveness of these approaches is assessed in two real wave scenarios (Sydney and Perth) with farms of two different scales. We find that a combination of symmetric local search with Nelder-Mead Simplex direct search combined with a back-tracking optimization strategy is able to outperform previously defined search techniques by up to 3\%.