Shirin Panahi

Mohammadamin Moradi, Shirin Panahi, Erik M. Bollt et al.

Data-driven model discovery of complex dynamical systems is typically done using sparse optimization, but it has a fundamental limitation: sparsity in that the underlying governing equations of the system contain only a small number of elementary mathematical terms. Examples where sparse optimization fails abound, such as the classic Ikeda or optical-cavity map in nonlinear dynamics and a large variety of ecosystems. Exploiting the recently articulated Kolmogorov-Arnold networks, we develop a general model-discovery framework for any dynamical systems including those that do not satisfy the sparsity condition. In particular, we demonstrate non-uniqueness in that a large number of approximate models of the system can be found which generate the same invariant set with the correct statistics such as the Lyapunov exponents and Kullback-Leibler divergence. An analogy to shadowing of numerical trajectories in chaotic systems is pointed out.

Smita Deb, Shirin Panahi, Mulugeta Haile et al.

Reservoir computing (RC) is a computational framework known for its training efficiency, making it ideal for physical hardware implementations. However, realizing the complex interconnectivity of traditional reservoirs in physical systems remains a significant challenge. This paper proposes a physical RC scheme inspired by the biological vestibular system. To overcome hardware complexity, we introduce a designed uncoupled topology and demonstrate that it achieves performance comparable to fully coupled networks. We theoretically analyze the difference between these topologies by deriving a memory capacity formula for linear reservoirs, identifying specific conditions where both configurations yield equivalent memory. These analytical results are demonstrated to approximately hold for nonlinear reservoir systems. Furthermore, we systematically examine the impact of reservoir size on predictive statistics and memory capacity. Our findings suggest that uncoupled reservoir architectures offer a mathematically sound and practically feasible pathway for efficient physical reservoir computing.

Shirin Panahi, Ling-Wei Kong, Bryan Glaz et al.

For anticipating critical transitions in complex dynamical systems, the recent approach of parameter-driven reservoir computing requires explicit knowledge of the bifurcation parameter. We articulate a framework combining a variational autoencoder (VAE) and reservoir computing to address this challenge. In particular, the driving factor is detected from time series using the VAE in an unsupervised-learning fashion and the extracted information is then used as the parameter input to the reservoir computer for anticipating the critical transition. We demonstrate the power of the unsupervised learning scheme using prototypical dynamical systems including the spatiotemporal Kuramoto-Sivashinsky system. The scheme can also be extended to scenarios where the target system is driven by several independent parameters or with partial state observations.

Shirin Panahi, Ling-Wei Kong, Mohammadamin Moradi et al.

Anticipating a tipping point, a transition from one stable steady state to another, is a problem of broad relevance due to the ubiquity of the phenomenon in diverse fields. The steady-state nature of the dynamics about a tipping point makes its prediction significantly more challenging than predicting other types of critical transitions from oscillatory or chaotic dynamics. Exploiting the benefits of noise, we develop a general data-driven and machine-learning approach to predicting potential future tipping in nonautonomous dynamical systems and validate the framework using examples from different fields. As an application, we address the problem of predicting the potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), possibly driven by climate-induced changes in the freshwater input to the North Atlantic. Our predictions based on synthetic and currently available empirical data place a potential collapse window spanning from 2040 to 2065, in consistency with the results in the current literature.