Riccardo Cadei

Dingling Yao, Dario Rancati, Riccardo Cadei et al.

Causal representation learning (CRL) aims at recovering latent causal variables from high-dimensional observations to solve causal downstream tasks, such as predicting the effect of new interventions or more robust classification. A plethora of methods have been developed, each tackling carefully crafted problem settings that lead to different types of identifiability. These different settings are widely assumed to be important because they are often linked to different rungs of Pearl's causal hierarchy, even though this correspondence is not always exact. This work shows that instead of strictly conforming to this hierarchical mapping, many causal representation learning approaches methodologically align their representations with inherent data symmetries. Identification of causal variables is guided by invariance principles that are not necessarily causal. This result allows us to unify many existing approaches in a single method that can mix and match different assumptions, including non-causal ones, based on the invariance relevant to the problem at hand. It also significantly benefits applicability, which we demonstrate by improving treatment effect estimation on real-world high-dimensional ecological data. Overall, this paper clarifies the role of causal assumptions in the discovery of causal variables and shifts the focus to preserving data symmetries.

Riccardo Cadei, Ilker Demirel, Piersilvio De Bartolomeis et al. · eth-zurich

In many scientific experiments, the data annotating cost constraints the pace for testing novel hypotheses. Yet, modern machine learning pipelines offer a promising solution, provided their predictions yield correct conclusions. We focus on Prediction-Powered Causal Inferences (PPCI), i.e., estimating the treatment effect in an unlabeled target experiment, relying on training data with the same outcome annotated but potentially different treatment or effect modifiers. We first show that conditional calibration guarantees valid PPCI at population level. Then, we introduce a sufficient representation constraint transferring validity across experiments, which we propose to enforce in practice in Deconfounded Empirical Risk Minimization, our new model-agnostic training objective. We validate our method on synthetic and real-world scientific data, solving impossible problem instances for Empirical Risk Minimization even with standard invariance constraints. In particular, for the first time, we achieve valid causal inference on a scientific experiment with complex recording and no human annotations, fine-tuning a foundational model on our similar annotated experiment.

Dingling Yao, Shimeng Huang, Riccardo Cadei et al.

Causal reasoning and discovery, two fundamental tasks of causal analysis, often face challenges in applications due to the complexity, noisiness, and high-dimensionality of real-world data. Despite recent progress in identifying latent causal structures using causal representation learning (CRL), what makes learned representations useful for causal downstream tasks and how to evaluate them are still not well understood. In this paper, we reinterpret CRL using a measurement model framework, where the learned representations are viewed as proxy measurements of the latent causal variables. Our approach clarifies the conditions under which learned representations support downstream causal reasoning and provides a principled basis for quantitatively assessing the quality of representations using a new Test-based Measurement EXclusivity (T-MEX) score. We validate T-MEX across diverse causal inference scenarios, including numerical simulations and real-world ecological video analysis, demonstrating that the proposed framework and corresponding score effectively assess the identification of learned representations and their usefulness for causal downstream tasks.