Pascal R. Van der Vaart

Moritz A. Zanger, Pascal R. Van der Vaart, Wendelin Böhmer et al.

Uncertainty quantification is a critical aspect of reinforcement learning and deep learning, with numerous applications ranging from efficient exploration and stable offline reinforcement learning to outlier detection in medical diagnostics. The scale of modern neural networks, however, complicates the use of many theoretically well-motivated approaches such as full Bayesian inference. Approximate methods like deep ensembles can provide reliable uncertainty estimates but still remain computationally expensive. In this work, we propose contextual similarity distillation, a novel approach that explicitly estimates the variance of an ensemble of deep neural networks with a single model, without ever learning or evaluating such an ensemble in the first place. Our method builds on the predictable learning dynamics of wide neural networks, governed by the neural tangent kernel, to derive an efficient approximation of the predictive variance of an infinite ensemble. Specifically, we reinterpret the computation of ensemble variance as a supervised regression problem with kernel similarities as regression targets. The resulting model can estimate predictive variance at inference time with a single forward pass, and can make use of unlabeled target-domain data or data augmentations to refine its uncertainty estimates. We empirically validate our method across a variety of out-of-distribution detection benchmarks and sparse-reward reinforcement learning environments. We find that our single-model method performs competitively and sometimes superior to ensemble-based baselines and serves as a reliable signal for efficient exploration. These results, we believe, position contextual similarity distillation as a principled and scalable alternative for uncertainty quantification in reinforcement learning and general deep learning.

Pascal R. van der Vaart, Neil Yorke-Smith, Matthijs T. J. Spaan

Uncertainty quantification in reinforcement learning can greatly improve exploration and robustness. Approximate Bayesian approaches have recently been popularized to quantify uncertainty in model-free algorithms. However, so far the focus has been on improving the accuracy of the posterior approximation, instead of studying the accuracy of the prior and likelihood assumptions underlying the posterior. In this work, we demonstrate that there is a cold posterior effect in Bayesian deep Q-learning, where contrary to theory, performance increases when reducing the temperature of the posterior. To identify and overcome likely causes, we challenge common assumptions made on the likelihood and priors in Bayesian model-free algorithms. We empirically study prior distributions and show through statistical tests that the common Gaussian likelihood assumption is frequently violated. We argue that developing more suitable likelihoods and priors should be a key focus in future Bayesian reinforcement learning research and we offer simple, implementable solutions for better priors in deep Q-learning that lead to more performant Bayesian algorithms.

Moritz A. Zanger, Max Weltevrede, Yaniv Oren et al.

Estimating epistemic uncertainty in value functions is a crucial challenge for many aspects of reinforcement learning (RL), including efficient exploration, safe decision-making, and offline RL. While deep ensembles provide a robust method for quantifying value uncertainty, they come with significant computational overhead. Single-model methods, while computationally favorable, often rely on heuristics and typically require additional propagation mechanisms for myopic uncertainty estimates. In this work we introduce universal value-function uncertainties (UVU), which, similar in spirit to random network distillation (RND), quantify uncertainty as squared prediction errors between an online learner and a fixed, randomly initialized target network. Unlike RND, UVU errors reflect policy-conditional value uncertainty, incorporating the future uncertainties any given policy may encounter. This is due to the training procedure employed in UVU: the online network is trained using temporal difference learning with a synthetic reward derived from the fixed, randomly initialized target network. We provide an extensive theoretical analysis of our approach using neural tangent kernel (NTK) theory and show that in the limit of infinite network width, UVU errors are exactly equivalent to the variance of an ensemble of independent universal value functions. Empirically, we show that UVU achieves equal performance to large ensembles on challenging multi-task offline RL settings, while offering simplicity and substantial computational savings.

Yaniv Oren, Moritz A. Zanger, Pascal R. van der Vaart et al.

To learn approximately optimal acting policies for decision problems, modern Actor Critic algorithms rely on deep Neural Networks (DNNs) to parameterize the acting policy and greedification operators to iteratively improve it. The reliance on DNNs suggests an improvement that is gradient based, which is per step much less greedy than the improvement possible by greedier operators such as the greedy update used by Q-learning algorithms. On the other hand, slow changes to the policy can also be beneficial for the stability of the learning process, resulting in a tradeoff between greedification and stability. To better address this tradeoff, we propose to decouple the acting policy from the policy evaluated by the critic. This allows the agent to separately improve the critic's policy (e.g. value improvement) with greedier updates while maintaining the slow gradient-based improvement to the parameterized acting policy. We investigate the convergence of this approach using the popular analysis scheme of generalized Policy Iteration in the finite-horizon domain. Empirically, incorporating value-improvement into the popular off-policy actor-critic algorithms TD3 and SAC significantly improves or matches performance over their respective baselines, across different environments from the DeepMind continuous control domain, with negligible compute and implementation cost.