David Berghaus

Patrick Seifner, Kostadin Cvejoski, David Berghaus et al.

Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) describe dynamical systems where deterministic flows, governed by a drift function, are superimposed with random fluctuations, dictated by a diffusion function. The accurate estimation (or discovery) of these functions from data is a central problem in machine learning, with wide application across the natural and social sciences. Yet current solutions either rely heavily on prior knowledge of the dynamics or involve intricate training procedures. We introduce FIM-SDE (Foundation Inference Model for SDEs), a pretrained recognition model that delivers accurate in-context (or zero-shot) estimation of the drift and diffusion functions of low-dimensional SDEs, from noisy time series data, and allows rapid finetuning to target datasets. Leveraging concepts from amortized inference and neural operators, we (pre)train FIM-SDE in a supervised fashion to map a large set of noisy, discretely observed SDE paths onto the space of drift and diffusion functions. We demonstrate that FIM-SDE achieves robust in-context function estimation across a wide range of synthetic and real-world processes -- from canonical SDE systems (e.g., double-well dynamics or weakly perturbed Lorenz attractors) to stock price recordings and oil-price and wind-speed fluctuations -- while matching the performance of symbolic, Gaussian process and Neural SDE baselines trained on the target datasets. When finetuned to the target processes, we show that FIM-SDE consistently outperforms all these baselines.

David Berghaus, Patrick Seifner, Kostadin Cvejoski et al.

Modeling event sequences of multiple event types with marked temporal point processes (MTPPs) provides a principled way to uncover governing dynamical rules and predict future events. Current neural network approaches to MTPP inference rely on training separate, specialized models for each target system. We pursue a radically different approach: drawing on amortized inference and in-context learning, we pretrain a deep neural network to infer, in-context, the conditional intensity functions of event histories from a context defined by sets of event sequences. Pretraining is performed on a large synthetic dataset of MTPPs sampled from a broad distribution of Hawkes processes. Once pretrained, our Foundation Inference Model for Point Processes (FIM-PP) can estimate MTPPs from real-world data without any additional training, or be rapidly finetuned to target systems. Experiments show that this amortized approach matches the performance of specialized models on next-event prediction across common benchmark datasets. Our pretrained model, repository and tutorials will soon be available online

Manuel Hinz, Maximilian Mauel, Patrick Seifner et al.

High-dimensional recordings of dynamical processes are often characterized by a much smaller set of effective variables, evolving on low-dimensional manifolds. Identifying these latent dynamics requires solving two intertwined problems: discovering appropriate coarse-grained variables and simultaneously fitting the governing equations. Most machine learning approaches tackle these tasks jointly by training autoencoders together with models that enforce dynamical consistency. We propose to decouple the two problems by leveraging the recently introduced Foundation Inference Models (FIMs). FIMs are pretrained models that estimate the infinitesimal generators of dynamical systems (e.g., the drift and diffusion of a stochastic differential equation) in zero-shot mode. By amortizing the inference of the dynamics through a FIM with frozen weights, and training only the encoder-decoder map, we define a simple, simulation-consistent loss that stabilizes representation learning. A proof of concept on a stochastic double-well system with semicircle diffusion, embedded into synthetic video data, illustrates the potential of this approach for fast and reusable coarse-graining pipelines.

David Berghaus

We introduce EVIL (\textbf{EV}olving \textbf{I}nterpretable algorithms with \textbf{L}LMs), an approach that uses LLM-guided evolutionary search to discover simple, interpretable algorithms for dynamical systems inference. Rather than training neural networks on large datasets, EVIL evolves pure Python/NumPy programs that perform zero-shot, in-context inference across datasets. We apply EVIL to three distinct tasks: next-event prediction in temporal point processes, rate matrix estimation for Markov jump processes, and time series imputation. In each case, a single evolved algorithm generalizes across all evaluation datasets without per-dataset training (analogous to an amortized inference model). To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to show that LLM-guided program evolution can discover a single compact inference function for these dynamical-systems problems. Across the three domains, the discovered algorithms are often competitive with, and even outperform, state-of-the-art deep learning models while being orders of magnitudes faster, and remaining fully interpretable.

Maximilian Mauel, Manuel Hinz, Patrick Seifner et al.

Ordinary differential equations (ODEs) describe dynamical systems evolving deterministically in continuous time. Accurate data-driven modeling of systems as ODEs, a central problem across the natural sciences, remains challenging, especially if the data is sparse or noisy. We introduce FIM-ODE (Foundation Inference Model for ODEs), a pretrained neural model designed to estimate ODEs zero-shot (i.e., in context) from sparse and noisy observations. Trained on synthetic data, the model utilizes a flexible neural operator for robust ODE inference, even from corrupted data. We empirically verify that FIM-ODE provides accurate estimates, on par with a neural state-of-the-art method, and qualitatively compare the structure of their estimated vector fields.

David Berghaus, Patrick Seifner, Kostadin Cvejoski et al.

Many scientific fields, from medicine to seismology, rely on analyzing sequences of events over time to understand complex systems. Traditionally, machine learning models must be built and trained from scratch for each new dataset, which is a slow and costly process. We introduce a new approach: a single, powerful model that learns the underlying patterns of event data in context. We trained this "foundation model" on millions of simulated event sequences, teaching it a general-purpose understanding of how events can unfold. As a result, our model can analyze new scientific data instantly, without retraining, simply by looking at a few examples from the dataset. It can also be quickly fine-tuned for even higher accuracy. This approach makes sophisticated event analysis more accessible and accelerates the pace of scientific discovery.

David Berghaus, Kostadin Cvejoski, Patrick Seifner et al.

Markov jump processes are continuous-time stochastic processes which describe dynamical systems evolving in discrete state spaces. These processes find wide application in the natural sciences and machine learning, but their inference is known to be far from trivial. In this work we introduce a methodology for zero-shot inference of Markov jump processes (MJPs), on bounded state spaces, from noisy and sparse observations, which consists of two components. First, a broad probability distribution over families of MJPs, as well as over possible observation times and noise mechanisms, with which we simulate a synthetic dataset of hidden MJPs and their noisy observation process. Second, a neural network model that processes subsets of the simulated observations, and that is trained to output the initial condition and rate matrix of the target MJP in a supervised way. We empirically demonstrate that one and the same (pretrained) model can infer, in a zero-shot fashion, hidden MJPs evolving in state spaces of different dimensionalities. Specifically, we infer MJPs which describe (i) discrete flashing ratchet systems, which are a type of Brownian motors, and the conformational dynamics in (ii) molecular simulations, (iii) experimental ion channel data and (iv) simple protein folding models. What is more, we show that our model performs on par with state-of-the-art models which are finetuned to the target datasets.