Yuanqing Wang

Haowei Ni, Shuchen Meng, Xupeng Chen et al.

Accurate stock market predictions following earnings reports are crucial for investors. Traditional methods, particularly classical machine learning models, struggle with these predictions because they cannot effectively process and interpret extensive textual data contained in earnings reports and often overlook nuances that influence market movements. This paper introduces an advanced approach by employing Large Language Models (LLMs) instruction fine-tuned with a novel combination of instruction-based techniques and quantized low-rank adaptation (QLoRA) compression. Our methodology integrates 'base factors', such as financial metric growth and earnings transcripts, with 'external factors', including recent market indices performances and analyst grades, to create a rich, supervised dataset. This comprehensive dataset enables our models to achieve superior predictive performance in terms of accuracy, weighted F1, and Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC), especially evident in the comparison with benchmarks such as GPT-4. We specifically highlight the efficacy of the llama-3-8b-Instruct-4bit model, which showcases significant improvements over baseline models. The paper also discusses the potential of expanding the output capabilities to include a 'Hold' option and extending the prediction horizon, aiming to accommodate various investment styles and time frames. This study not only demonstrates the power of integrating cutting-edge AI with fine-tuned financial data but also paves the way for future research in enhancing AI-driven financial analysis tools.

Yuanqing Wang, Kyunghyun Cho

Rethink convolution-based graph neural networks (GNN) -- they characteristically suffer from limited expressiveness, over-smoothing, and over-squashing, and require specialized sparse kernels for efficient computation. Here, we design a simple graph learning module entirely free of convolution operators, coined random walk with unifying memory (RUM) neural network, where an RNN merges the topological and semantic graph features along the random walks terminating at each node. Relating the rich literature on RNN behavior and graph topology, we theoretically show and experimentally verify that RUM attenuates the aforementioned symptoms and is more expressive than the Weisfeiler-Lehman (WL) isomorphism test. On a variety of node- and graph-level classification and regression tasks, RUM not only achieves competitive performance, but is also robust, memory-efficient, scalable, and faster than the simplest convolutional GNNs.