Samuel J. Barrett

Mashrekur Rahman, Samuel J. Barrett, Christina Last

Earth observation foundation models encode land surface information into dense embedding vectors, yet the geometric structure of these representations and its implications for downstream reasoning remain underexplored. We characterize the manifold geometry of Google AlphaEarth's 64-dimensional embeddings across 12.1 million Continental United States samples (2017--2023) and develop an agentic system that leverages this geometric understanding for environmental reasoning. The manifold is non-Euclidean: effective dimensionality is 13.3 (participation ratio) from 64 raw dimensions, with local intrinsic dimensionality of approximately 10. Tangent spaces rotate substantially, with 84\% of locations exceeding 60\textdegree{} and local-global alignment (mean$|\cosθ| = 0.17$) approaching the random baseline of 0.125. Supervised linear probes indicate that concept directions rotate across the manifold, and compositional vector arithmetic using both PCA-derived and probe-derived directions yields poor precision. Retrieval instead produces physically coherent results, with local geometry predicting retrieval coherence ($R^2 = 0.32$). Building on this characterization, we introduce an agentic system with nine specialized tools that decomposes environmental queries into reasoning chains over a FAISS-indexed embedding database. A five-condition ablation (120 queries, three complexity tiers) shows that embedding retrieval dominates response quality ($μ= 3.79 \pm 0.90$ vs.\ $3.03 \pm 0.77$ parametric-only; scale 1--5), with peak performance on multi-step comparisons ($μ= 4.28 \pm 0.43$). A cross-model benchmark show that geometric tools reduce Sonnet 4.5's score by 0.12 points but improve Opus 4.6's by 0.07, with Opus achieving higher geometric grounding (3.38 vs.\ 2.64), suggesting that the value of geometric characterization scales with the reasoning capability of the consuming model.

Samuel J. Barrett, Docko Sow

Earth Observation (EO) Foundation Modelling (FM) holds great promise for simplifying and improving the use of EO data for diverse real-world tasks. However, most existing models require additional adaptation before they can be used and are structured rigidly around particular data sources or training approaches. To address this, we take inspiration from large language models, where diverse tasks, both pre-training and downstream, are implicitly captured through next-token prediction over unified token sequences, leveraging the structure and diversity of the training data. We introduce SITS-DECO (Satellite Image Time Series-DECoder Only), a proof-of-concept generative model that applies this unified-sequence framing to EO data. Using a simple GPT-style decoder-only architecture, and demonstrate its ability to perform useful EO tasks (pixel-wise, multi-temporal, multi-modal crop-type classification) in a purely generative framework. Through symbolic prompting, we show that the model can perform multiple supervised and self-supervised tasks within a single unified architecture, without task- or modality-specific adaptation. Despite its simplicity and lack of spatial context, SITS-DECO outperforms much larger EO foundation models on crop-type classification (PASTIS-R) demonstrating that dense temporal sequence modelling is a critical missing ingredient in the current paradigm. This work exemplifies a data-centric modelling paradigm in which capability arises from the diversity and structure of the training data rather than from architectural complexity. SITS-DECO provides a lightweight, practical route to multi-modal, multi-task EO modelling, and a conceptual bridge toward future generative EO foundation models.