Chenye Wu

Chenbei Lu, Laixi Shi, Zaiwei Chen et al.

Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithms are known to suffer from the curse of dimensionality, which refers to the fact that large-scale problems often lead to exponentially high sample complexity. A common solution is to use deep neural networks for function approximation; however, such approaches typically lack theoretical guarantees. To provably address the curse of dimensionality, we observe that many real-world problems exhibit task-specific model structures that, when properly leveraged, can improve the sample efficiency of RL. Building on this insight, we propose overcoming the curse of dimensionality by approximately factorizing the original Markov decision processes (MDPs) into smaller, independently evolving MDPs. This factorization enables the development of sample-efficient RL algorithms in both model-based and model-free settings, with the latter involving a variant of variance-reduced Q-learning. We provide improved sample complexity guarantees for both proposed algorithms. Notably, by leveraging model structure through the approximate factorization of the MDP, the dependence of sample complexity on the size of the state-action space can be exponentially reduced. Numerically, we demonstrate the practicality of our proposed methods through experiments on both synthetic MDP tasks and a wind farm-equipped storage control problem.

Chenbei Lu, Zaiwei Chen, Tongxin Li et al.

Traditional reinforcement learning (RL) assumes the agents make decisions based on Markov decision processes (MDPs) with one-step transition models. In many real-world applications, such as energy management and stock investment, agents can access multi-step predictions of future states, which provide additional advantages for decision making. However, multi-step predictions are inherently high-dimensional: naively embedding these predictions into an MDP leads to an exponential blow-up in state space and the curse of dimensionality. Moreover, existing RL theory provides few tools to analyze prediction-augmented MDPs, as it typically works on one-step transition kernels and cannot accommodate multi-step predictions with errors or partial action-coverage. We address these challenges with three key innovations: First, we propose the \emph{Bayesian value function} to characterize the optimal prediction-aware policy tractably. Second, we develop a novel \emph{Bellman-Jensen Gap} analysis on the Bayesian value function, which enables characterizing the value of imperfect predictions. Third, we introduce BOLA (Bayesian Offline Learning with Online Adaptation), a two-stage model-based RL algorithm that separates offline Bayesian value learning from lightweight online adaptation to real-time predictions. We prove that BOLA remains sample-efficient even under imperfect predictions. We validate our theory and algorithm on synthetic MDPs and a real-world wind energy storage control problem.

Qiyuan Wang, Zhihui Chen, Chenye Wu

While the advanced machine learning algorithms are effective in load forecasting, they often suffer from low data utilization, and hence their superior performance relies on massive datasets. This motivates us to design machine learning algorithms with improved data utilization. Specifically, we consider the load forecasting for a new user in the system by observing only few shots (data points) of its energy consumption. This task is challenging since the limited samples are insufficient to exploit the temporal characteristics, essential for load forecasting. Nonetheless, we notice that there are not too many temporal characteristics for residential loads due to the limited kinds of human lifestyle. Hence, we propose to utilize the historical load profile data from existing users to conduct effective clustering, which mitigates the challenges brought by the limited samples. Specifically, we first design a feature extraction clustering method for categorizing historical data. Then, inheriting the prior knowledge from the clustering results, we propose a two-phase Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) model to conduct load forecasting for new users. The proposed method outperforms the traditional LSTM model, especially when the training sample size fails to cover a whole period (i.e., 24 hours in our task). Extensive case studies on two real-world datasets and one synthetic dataset verify the effectiveness and efficiency of our method.

Haoxiang Wang, Jiasheng Zhang, Chenbei Lu et al.

Smart meter devices enable a better understanding of the demand at the potential risk of private information leakage. One promising solution to mitigating such risk is to inject noises into the meter data to achieve a certain level of differential privacy. In this paper, we cast one-shot non-intrusive load monitoring (NILM) in the compressive sensing framework, and bridge the gap between theoretical accuracy of NILM inference and differential privacy's parameters. We then derive the valid theoretical bounds to offer insights on how the differential privacy parameters affect the NILM performance. Moreover, we generalize our conclusions by proposing the hierarchical framework to solve the multi-shot NILM problem. Numerical experiments verify our analytical results and offer better physical insights of differential privacy in various practical scenarios. This also demonstrates the significance of our work for the general privacy preserving mechanism design.

Chenbei Lu, Kui Wang, Chenye Wu

Conventional wisdom to improve the effectiveness of economic dispatch is to design the load forecasting method as accurately as possible. However, this approach can be problematic due to the temporal and spatial correlations between system cost and load prediction errors. This motivates us to adopt the notion of end-to-end machine learning and to propose a task-specific learning criteria to conduct economic dispatch. Specifically, to maximize the data utilization, we design an efficient optimization kernel for the learning process. We provide both theoretical analysis and empirical insights to highlight the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed learning framework.

Jingshi Cui, Haoxiang Wang, Chenye Wu et al.

To enable an efficient electricity market, a good pricing scheme is of vital importance. Among many practical schemes, customized pricing is commonly believed to be able to best exploit the flexibility in the demand side. However, due to the large volume of consumers in the electricity sector, such task is simply too overwhelming. In this paper, we first compare two data driven schemes: one based on load profile and the other based on user's marginal system cost. Vulnerability analysis shows that the former approach may lead to loopholes in the electricity market while the latter one is able to guarantee the robustness, which yields our robust data-driven pricing scheme. Although k-means clustering is in general NP-hard, surprisingly, by exploiting the structure of our problem, we design an efficient yet optimal k-means clustering algorithm to implement our proposed scheme.

Jiaman Wu, Zhiqi Wang, Chenye Wu et al.

Dynamic pricing is both an opportunity and a challenge to the demand side. It is an opportunity as it better reflects the real time market conditions and hence enables an active demand side. However, demand's active participation does not necessarily lead to benefits. The challenge conventionally comes from the limited flexible resources and limited intelligent devices in demand side. The decreasing cost of storage system and the widely deployed smart meters inspire us to design a data-driven storage control framework for dynamic prices. We first establish a stylized model by assuming the knowledge and structure of dynamic price distributions, and design the optimal storage control policy. Based on Gaussian Mixture Model, we propose a practical data-driven control framework, which helps relax the assumptions in the stylized model. Numerical studies illustrate the remarkable performance of the proposed data-driven framework.

Jingshi Cui, Haoxiang Wang, Chenye Wu et al.

Data analytics and machine learning techniques are being rapidly adopted into the power system, including power system control as well as electricity market design. In this paper, from an adversarial machine learning point of view, we examine the vulnerability of data-driven electricity market design. More precisely, we follow the idea that consumer's load profile should uniquely determine its electricity rate, which yields a clustering oriented pricing scheme. We first identify the strategic behaviors of malicious users by defining a notion of disguising. Based on this notion, we characterize the sensitivity zones to evaluate the percentage of malicious users in each cluster. Based on a thorough cost benefit analysis, we conclude with the vulnerability analysis.

Kui Wang, Jian Sun, Chenye Wu et al.

Conductor galloping is the high-amplitude, low-frequency oscillation of overhead power lines due to wind. Such movements may lead to severe damages to transmission lines, and hence pose significant risks to the power system operation. In this paper, we target to design a prediction framework for conductor galloping. The difficulty comes from imbalanced dataset as galloping happens rarely. By examining the impacts of data balance and data volume on the prediction performance, we propose to employ proper sample adjustment methods to achieve better performance. Numerical study suggests that using only three features, together with over sampling, the SVM based prediction framework achieves an F_1-score of 98.9%.

Dileep Kalathil, Chenye Wu, Kameshwar Poolla et al.

The sharing economy has disrupted housing and transportation sectors. Homeowners can rent out their property when they are away on vacation, car owners can offer ride sharing services. These sharing economy business models are based on monetizing under-utilized infrastructure. They are enabled by peer-to-peer platforms that match eager sellers with willing buyers. Are there compelling sharing economy opportunities in the electricity sector? What products or services can be shared in tomorrow's Smart Grid? We begin by exploring sharing economy opportunities in the electricity sector, and discuss regulatory and technical obstacles to these opportunities. We then study the specific problem of a collection of firms sharing their electricity storage. We characterize equilibrium prices for shared storage in a spot market. We formulate storage investment decisions of the firms as a non-convex non-cooperative game. We show that under a mild alignment condition, a Nash equilibrium exists, it is unique, and it supports the social welfare. We discuss technology platforms necessary for the physical exchange of power, and market platforms necessary to trade electricity storage. We close with synthetic examples to illustrate our ideas.