Chenguang Wang

Weijie Xia, Gao Peng, Chenguang Wang et al.

Electricity Consumption Profiles (ECPs) are crucial for operating and planning power distribution systems, especially with the increasing numbers of various low-carbon technologies such as solar panels and electric vehicles. Traditional ECP modeling methods typically assume the availability of sufficient ECP data. However, in practice, the accessibility of ECP data is limited due to privacy issues or the absence of metering devices. Few-shot learning (FSL) has emerged as a promising solution for ECP modeling in data-scarce scenarios. Nevertheless, standard FSL methods, such as those used for images, are unsuitable for ECP modeling because (1) these methods usually assume several source domains with sufficient data and several target domains. However, in the context of ECP modeling, there may be thousands of source domains with a moderate amount of data and thousands of target domains. (2) Standard FSL methods usually involve cumbersome knowledge transfer mechanisms, such as pre-training and fine-tuning, whereas ECP modeling requires more lightweight methods. (3) Deep learning models often lack explainability, hindering their application in industry. This paper proposes a novel FSL method that exploits Transformers and Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs) for ECP modeling to address the above-described issues. Results show that our method can accurately restore the complex ECP distribution with a minimal amount of ECP data (e.g., only 1.6\% of the complete domain dataset) while it outperforms state-of-the-art time series modeling methods, maintaining the advantages of being both lightweight and interpretable. The project is open-sourced at https://github.com/xiaweijie1996/TransformerEM-GMM.git.

Chenguang Wang, Simon H. Tindemans, Peter Palensky

Generating power system states that have similar distribution and dependency to the historical ones is essential for the tasks of system planning and security assessment, especially when the historical data is insufficient. In this paper, we described a generative model for load profiles of industrial and commercial customers, based on the conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE) neural network architecture, which is challenging due to the highly variable nature of such profiles. Generated contextual load profiles were conditioned on the month of the year and typical power exchange with the grid. Moreover, the quality of generations was both visually and statistically evaluated. The experimental results demonstrate our proposed CVAE model can capture temporal features of historical load profiles and generate `realistic' data with satisfying univariate distributions and multivariate dependencies.

Chenguang Wang, Ensieh Sharifnia, Simon H. Tindemans et al.

Variational autoencoder (VAE) neural networks can be trained to generate power system states that capture both marginal distribution and multivariate dependencies of historical data. The coordinates of the latent space codes of VAEs have been shown to correlate with conceptual features of the data, which can be leveraged to synthesize targeted data with desired features. However, the locations of the VAEs' latent space codes that correspond to specific properties are not constrained. Additionally, the generation of data with specific characteristics may require data with corresponding hard-to-get labels fed into the generative model for training. In this paper, to make data generation more controllable and efficient, an oriented variation autoencoder (OVAE) is proposed to constrain the link between latent space code and generated data in the form of a Spearman correlation, which provides increased control over the data synthesis process. On this basis, an importance sampling process is used to sample data in the latent space. Two cases are considered for testing the performance of the OVAE model: the data set is fully labeled with approximate information and the data set is incompletely labeled but with more accurate information. The experimental results show that, in both cases, the OVAE model correlates latent space codes with the generated data, and the efficiency of generating targeted samples is significantly improved.

Sai Kolasani, Maxim Saplin, Nicholas Crispino et al.

We introduce LLM CHESS, an evaluation framework designed to probe the generalization of reasoning and instruction-following abilities in large language models (LLMs) through extended agentic interaction in the domain of chess. We rank over 50 open and closed source models by playing against a random opponent using a range of behavioral metrics, including win and loss rates, move quality, move legality, hallucinated actions, and game duration. For a subset of top reasoning models, we derive an Elo estimate by playing against a chess engine with variably configured skill, which allows for comparisons between models in an easily understandable way. Despite the simplicity of the instruction-following task and the weakness of the opponent, many state-of-the-art models struggle to complete games or achieve consistent wins. Similar to other benchmarks on complex reasoning tasks, our experiments reveal a clear separation between reasoning and non-reasoning models. However, unlike existing static benchmarks, the stochastic and dynamic nature of LLM CHESS uniquely reduces overfitting and memorization while preventing benchmark saturation, proving difficult even for top reasoning models. To support future work on evaluating reasoning and instruction-following in LLMs, we release our experimental framework, a public leaderboard, and a dataset of associated games.

Chenguang Wang, Zhang-Hua Fu, Pinyan Lu et al.

Efficiently training a multi-task neural solver for various combinatorial optimization problems (COPs) has been less studied so far. Naive application of conventional multi-task learning approaches often falls short in delivering a high-quality, unified neural solver. This deficiency primarily stems from the significant computational demands and a lack of adequate consideration for the complexities inherent in COPs. In this paper, we propose a general and efficient training paradigm to deliver a unified combinatorial multi-task neural solver. To this end, we resort to the theoretical loss decomposition for multiple tasks under an encoder-decoder framework, which enables more efficient training via proper bandit task-sampling algorithms through an intra-task influence matrix. By employing theoretically grounded approximations, our method significantly enhances overall performance, regardless of whether it is within constrained training budgets, across equivalent training epochs, or in terms of generalization capabilities, when compared to conventional training schedules. On the real-world datasets of TSPLib and CVRPLib, our method also achieved the best results compared to single task learning and multi-task learning approaches. Additionally, the influence matrix provides empirical evidence supporting common practices in the field of learning to optimize, further substantiating the effectiveness of our approach. Our code is open-sourced and available at https://github.com/LOGO-CUHKSZ/MTL-COP.

Chenguang Wang, Ruoxi Jia, Xin Liu et al.

Pre-training image representations from the raw text about images enables zero-shot vision transfer to downstream tasks. Through pre-training on millions of samples collected from the internet, multimodal foundation models, such as CLIP, produce state-of-the-art zero-shot results that often reach competitiveness with fully supervised methods without the need for task-specific training. Besides the encouraging performance on classification accuracy, it is reported that these models close the robustness gap by matching the performance of supervised models trained on ImageNet under natural distribution shift. Because robustness is critical to real-world applications, especially safety-critical ones, in this paper, we present a comprehensive evaluation based on a large-scale robustness benchmark covering 7 natural, 3 synthetic distribution shifts, and 11 adversarial attacks. We use CLIP as a pilot study. We show that CLIP leads to a significant robustness drop compared to supervised ImageNet models on our benchmark, especially under synthetic distribution shift and adversarial attacks. Furthermore, data overlap analysis suggests that the observed robustness under natural distribution shifts could be attributed, at least in part, to data overlap. In summary, our evaluation shows a comprehensive evaluation of robustness is necessary; and there is a significant need to improve the robustness of zero-shot multimodal models.

Chenguang Wang, Davis Engler, Xuechun Li et al.

When a damaging earthquake occurs, immediate information about casualties is critical for time-sensitive decision-making by emergency response and aid agencies in the first hours and days. Systems such as Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) were developed to provide a forecast within about 30 minutes of any significant earthquake globally. Traditional systems for estimating human loss in disasters often depend on manually collected early casualty reports from global media, a process that's labor-intensive and slow with notable time delays. Recently, some systems have employed keyword matching and topic modeling to extract relevant information from social media. However, these methods struggle with the complex semantics in multilingual texts and the challenge of interpreting ever-changing, often conflicting reports of death and injury numbers from various unverified sources on social media platforms. In this work, we introduce an end-to-end framework to significantly improve the timeliness and accuracy of global earthquake-induced human loss forecasting using multi-lingual, crowdsourced social media. Our framework integrates (1) a hierarchical casualty extraction model built upon large language models, prompt design, and few-shot learning to retrieve quantitative human loss claims from social media, (2) a physical constraint-aware, dynamic-truth discovery model that discovers the truthful human loss from massive noisy and potentially conflicting human loss claims, and (3) a Bayesian updating loss projection model that dynamically updates the final loss estimation using discovered truths. We test the framework in real-time on a series of global earthquake events in 2021 and 2022 and show that our framework streamlines casualty data retrieval, achieving speed and accuracy comparable to manual methods by USGS.

Weijie Xia, Chenguang Wang, Peter Palensky et al.

Residential Load Profile (RLP) generation and prediction are critical for the operation and planning of distribution networks, especially as diverse low-carbon technologies (e.g., photovoltaic and electric vehicles) are increasingly adopted. This paper introduces a novel flow-based generative model, termed Full Convolutional Profile Flow (FCPFlow), which is uniquely designed for both conditional and unconditional RLP generation, and for probabilistic load forecasting. By introducing two new layers--the invertible linear layer and the invertible normalization layer--the proposed FCPFlow architecture shows three main advantages compared to traditional statistical and contemporary deep generative models: 1) it is well-suited for RLP generation under continuous conditions, such as varying weather and annual electricity consumption, 2) it demonstrates superior scalability in different datasets compared to traditional statistical models, and 3) it also demonstrates better modeling capabilities in capturing the complex correlation of RLPs compared with deep generative models.

Chenguang Wang, Ensieh Sharifnia, Zhi Gao et al.

For planning of power systems and for the calibration of operational tools, it is essential to analyse system performance in a large range of representative scenarios. When the available historical data is limited, generative models are a promising solution, but modelling high-dimensional dependencies is challenging. In this paper, a multivariate load state generating model on the basis of a conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE) neural network is proposed. Going beyond common CVAE implementations, the model includes stochastic variation of output samples under given latent vectors and co-optimizes the parameters for this output variability. It is shown that this improves statistical properties of the generated data. The quality of generated multivariate loads is evaluated using univariate and multivariate performance metrics. A generation adequacy case study on the European network is used to illustrate model's ability to generate realistic tail distributions. The experiments demonstrate that the proposed generator outperforms other data generating mechanisms.

Chenguang Wang, Simon Tindemans, Kaikai Pan et al.

State estimation is of considerable significance for the power system operation and control. However, well-designed false data injection attacks can utilize blind spots in conventional residual-based bad data detection methods to manipulate measurements in a coordinated manner and thus affect the secure operation and economic dispatch of grids. In this paper, we propose a detection approach based on an autoencoder neural network. By training the network on the dependencies intrinsic in 'normal' operation data, it effectively overcomes the challenge of unbalanced training data that is inherent in power system attack detection. To evaluate the detection performance of the proposed mechanism, we conduct a series of experiments on the IEEE 118-bus power system. The experiments demonstrate that the proposed autoencoder detector displays robust detection performance under a variety of attack scenarios.