Jun Wang

Minghao Han, Yuan Tian, Lixian Zhang et al.

Reinforcement learning is showing great potentials in robotics applications, including autonomous driving, robot manipulation and locomotion. However, with complex uncertainties in the real-world environment, it is difficult to guarantee the successful generalization and sim-to-real transfer of learned policies theoretically. In this paper, we introduce and extend the idea of robust stability and $H_\infty$ control to design policies with both stability and robustness guarantee. Specifically, a sample-based approach for analyzing the Lyapunov stability and performance robustness of a learning-based control system is proposed. Based on the theoretical results, a maximum entropy algorithm is developed for searching Lyapunov function and designing a policy with provable robust stability guarantee. Without any specific domain knowledge, our method can find a policy that is robust to various uncertainties and generalizes well to different test environments. In our experiments, we show that our method achieves better robustness to both large impulsive disturbances and parametric variations in the environment than the state-of-art results in both robust and generic RL, as well as classic control. Anonymous code is available to reproduce the experimental results at https://github.com/RobustStabilityGuaranteeRL/RobustStabilityGuaranteeRL.

Yang Zhang, Wenbo Yang, Jun Wang et al.

Accurately forecasting the impact of macroeconomic events is critical for investors and policymakers. Salient events like monetary policy decisions and employment reports often trigger market movements by shaping expectations of economic growth and risk, thereby establishing causal relationships between events and market behavior. Existing forecasting methods typically focus either on textual analysis or time-series modeling, but fail to capture the multi-modal nature of financial markets and the causal relationship between events and price movements. To address these gaps, we propose CAMEF (Causal-Augmented Multi-Modality Event-Driven Financial Forecasting), a multi-modality framework that effectively integrates textual and time-series data with a causal learning mechanism and an LLM-based counterfactual event augmentation technique for causal-enhanced financial forecasting. Our contributions include: (1) a multi-modal framework that captures causal relationships between policy texts and historical price data; (2) a new financial dataset with six types of macroeconomic releases from 2008 to April 2024, and high-frequency real trading data for five key U.S. financial assets; and (3) an LLM-based counterfactual event augmentation strategy. We compare CAMEF to state-of-the-art transformer-based time-series and multi-modal baselines, and perform ablation studies to validate the effectiveness of the causal learning mechanism and event types.

Tianyang Hu, Jun Wang, Wenjia Wang et al.

Deep learning has achieved many breakthroughs in modern classification tasks. Numerous architectures have been proposed for different data structures but when it comes to the loss function, the cross-entropy loss is the predominant choice. Recently, several alternative losses have seen revived interests for deep classifiers. In particular, empirical evidence seems to promote square loss but a theoretical justification is still lacking. In this work, we contribute to the theoretical understanding of square loss in classification by systematically investigating how it performs for overparametrized neural networks in the neural tangent kernel (NTK) regime. Interesting properties regarding the generalization error, robustness, and calibration error are revealed. We consider two cases, according to whether classes are separable or not. In the general non-separable case, fast convergence rate is established for both misclassification rate and calibration error. When classes are separable, the misclassification rate improves to be exponentially fast. Further, the resulting margin is proven to be lower bounded away from zero, providing theoretical guarantees for robustness. We expect our findings to hold beyond the NTK regime and translate to practical settings. To this end, we conduct extensive empirical studies on practical neural networks, demonstrating the effectiveness of square loss in both synthetic low-dimensional data and real image data. Comparing to cross-entropy, square loss has comparable generalization error but noticeable advantages in robustness and model calibration.

Hongpeng Zhou, Minghao Yang, Jun Wang et al.

One-Shot Neural Architecture Search (NAS) is a promising method to significantly reduce search time without any separate training. It can be treated as a Network Compression problem on the architecture parameters from an over-parameterized network. However, there are two issues associated with most one-shot NAS methods. First, dependencies between a node and its predecessors and successors are often disregarded which result in improper treatment over zero operations. Second, architecture parameters pruning based on their magnitude is questionable. In this paper, we employ the classic Bayesian learning approach to alleviate these two issues by modeling architecture parameters using hierarchical automatic relevance determination (HARD) priors. Unlike other NAS methods, we train the over-parameterized network for only one epoch then update the architecture. Impressively, this enabled us to find the architecture on CIFAR-10 within only 0.2 GPU days using a single GPU. Competitive performance can be also achieved by transferring to ImageNet. As a byproduct, our approach can be applied directly to compress convolutional neural networks by enforcing structural sparsity which achieves extremely sparse networks without accuracy deterioration.