Jianguo Liu

Yuqi Wang, Aarzu Gupta, David Carpenter et al.

TodevelopanovelUncertaintyQuantification (UQ) framework to estimate the uncertainty of patient survival models in the absence of ground truth, we developed and evaluated our approach based on a dataset of 1383 patients treated with stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) for brain metastases between January 2015 and December 2020. Our motivating hypothesis is that a time-to-event prediction of a test patient on inference is more certain given a higher feature-space-similarity to patients in the training set. Therefore, the uncertainty for a particular patient-of-interest is represented by the concordance index between a patient similarity rank and a prediction similarity rank. Model uncertainty was defined as the increased percentage of the max uncertainty-constrained-AUC compared to the model AUC. We evaluated our method on multiple clinically-relevant endpoints, including time to intracranial progression (ICP), progression-free survival (PFS) after SRS, overall survival (OS), and time to ICP and/or death (ICPD), on a variety of both statistical and non-statistical models, including CoxPH, conditional survival forest (CSF), and neural multi-task linear regression (NMTLR). Our results show that all models had the lowest uncertainty on ICP (2.21%) and the highest uncertainty (17.28%) on ICPD. OS models demonstrated high variation in uncertainty performance, where NMTLR had the lowest uncertainty(1.96%)and CSF had the highest uncertainty (14.29%). In conclusion, our method can estimate the uncertainty of individual patient survival modeling results. As expected, our data empirically demonstrate that as model uncertainty measured via our technique increases, the similarity between a feature-space and its predicted outcome decreases.

Rui Ding, Jianguo Liu, Kang Hua et al.

Developing advanced catalysts for acidic oxygen evolution reaction (OER) is crucial for sustainable hydrogen production. This study introduces a novel, multi-stage machine learning (ML) approach to streamline the discovery and optimization of complex multi-metallic catalysts. Our method integrates data mining, active learning, and domain adaptation throughout the materials discovery process. Unlike traditional trial-and-error methods, this approach systematically narrows the exploration space using domain knowledge with minimized reliance on subjective intuition. Then the active learning module efficiently refines element composition and synthesis conditions through iterative experimental feedback. The process culminated in the discovery of a promising Ru-Mn-Ca-Pr oxide catalyst. Our workflow also enhances theoretical simulations with domain adaptation strategy, providing deeper mechanistic insights aligned with experimental findings. By leveraging diverse data sources and multiple ML strategies, we establish an efficient pathway for electrocatalyst discovery and optimization. This comprehensive, data-driven approach represents a paradigm shift and potentially new benchmark in electrocatalysts research.

Wenqing Hu, Chris Junchi Li, Lei Li et al.

We study the Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) method in nonconvex optimization problems from the point of view of approximating diffusion processes. We prove rigorously that the diffusion process can approximate the SGD algorithm weakly using the weak form of master equation for probability evolution. In the small step size regime and the presence of omnidirectional noise, our weak approximating diffusion process suggests the following dynamics for the SGD iteration starting from a local minimizer (resp.~saddle point): it escapes in a number of iterations exponentially (resp.~almost linearly) dependent on the inverse stepsize. The results are obtained using the theory for random perturbations of dynamical systems (theory of large deviations for local minimizers and theory of exiting for unstable stationary points). In addition, we discuss the effects of batch size for the deep neural networks, and we find that small batch size is helpful for SGD algorithms to escape unstable stationary points and sharp minimizers. Our theory indicates that one should increase the batch size at later stage for the SGD to be trapped in flat minimizers for better generalization.