Tao Yang

Tao Yang, Chuang Liu, Xiaofeng Ma et al.

Complex continuous or mixed joint distributions (e.g., P(Y | z_1, z_2, ..., z_N)) generally lack closed-form solutions, often necessitating approximations such as MCMC. This paper proposes Indeterminate Probability Theory (IPT), which makes the following contributions: (1) An observer-centered framework in which experimental outcomes are represented as distributions combining ground truth with observation error; (2) The introduction of three independence candidate axioms that enable a two-phase probabilistic inference framework; (3) The derivation of closed-form solutions for arbitrary complex joint distributions under this framework. Both the Indeterminate Probability Neural Network (IPNN) model and the non-neural multivariate time series forecasting application demonstrate IPT's effectiveness in modeling high-dimensional distributions, with successful validation up to 1000 dimensions. Importantly, IPT is consistent with classical probability theory and subsumes the frequentist equation in the limit of vanishing observation error.

Tao Yang, Shenglong Zhou, Yuwang Wang et al.

Deep neural networks often suffer the data distribution shift between training and testing, and the batch statistics are observed to reflect the shift. In this paper, targeting of alleviating distribution shift in test time, we revisit the batch normalization (BN) in the training process and reveals two key insights benefiting test-time optimization: $(i)$ preserving the same gradient backpropagation form as training, and $(ii)$ using dataset-level statistics for robust optimization and inference. Based on the two insights, we propose a novel test-time BN layer design, GpreBN, which is optimized during testing by minimizing Entropy loss. We verify the effectiveness of our method on two typical settings with distribution shift, i.e., domain generalization and robustness tasks. Our GpreBN significantly improves the test-time performance and achieves the state of the art results.