Song Liu

Louis Sharrock, Jack Simons, Song Liu et al.

We introduce Sequential Neural Posterior Score Estimation (SNPSE), a score-based method for Bayesian inference in simulator-based models. Our method, inspired by the remarkable success of score-based methods in generative modelling, leverages conditional score-based diffusion models to generate samples from the posterior distribution of interest. The model is trained using an objective function which directly estimates the score of the posterior. We embed the model into a sequential training procedure, which guides simulations using the current approximation of the posterior at the observation of interest, thereby reducing the simulation cost. We also introduce several alternative sequential approaches, and discuss their relative merits. We then validate our method, as well as its amortised, non-sequential, variant on several numerical examples, demonstrating comparable or superior performance to existing state-of-the-art methods such as Sequential Neural Posterior Estimation (SNPE).

Daniel J. Williams, Song Liu

Estimating truncated density models is difficult, as these models have intractable normalising constants and hard to satisfy boundary conditions. Score matching can be adapted to solve the truncated density estimation problem, but requires a continuous weighting function which takes zero at the boundary and is positive elsewhere. Evaluation of such a weighting function (and its gradient) often requires a closed-form expression of the truncation boundary and finding a solution to a complicated optimisation problem. In this paper, we propose approximate Stein classes, which in turn leads to a relaxed Stein identity for truncated density estimation. We develop a novel discrepancy measure, truncated kernelised Stein discrepancy (TKSD), which does not require fixing a weighting function in advance, and can be evaluated using only samples on the boundary. We estimate a truncated density model by minimising the Lagrangian dual of TKSD. Finally, experiments show the accuracy of our method to be an improvement over previous works even without the explicit functional form of the boundary.