Xuan Zhang

Jingyi Gu, Xuan Zhang, Guiling Wang

Extreme events, such as market crashes, natural disasters, and pandemics, are rare but catastrophic, often triggering cascading failures across interconnected systems. Accurate prediction and early warning can help minimize losses and improve preparedness. While data-driven methods offer powerful capabilities for extreme event modeling, they require abundant training data, yet extreme event data is inherently scarce, creating a fundamental challenge. Synthetic data generation has emerged as a powerful solution. However, existing surveys focus on general data with privacy preservation emphasis, rather than extreme events' unique performance requirements. This survey provides the first overview of synthetic data generation for extreme events. We systematically review generative modeling techniques and large language models, particularly those enhanced by statistical theory as well as specialized training and sampling mechanisms to capture heavy-tailed distributions. We summarize benchmark datasets and introduce a tailored evaluation framework covering statistical, dependence, visual, and task-oriented metrics. A central contribution is our in-depth analysis of each metric's applicability in extremeness and domain-specific adaptations, providing actionable guidance for model evaluation in extreme settings. We categorize key application domains and identify underexplored areas like behavioral finance, wildfires, earthquakes, windstorms, and infectious outbreaks. Finally, we outline open challenges, providing a structured foundation for advancing synthetic rare-event research.

Siyi Tang, Jared A. Dunnmon, Khaled Saab et al.

Automated seizure detection and classification from electroencephalography (EEG) can greatly improve seizure diagnosis and treatment. However, several modeling challenges remain unaddressed in prior automated seizure detection and classification studies: (1) representing non-Euclidean data structure in EEGs, (2) accurately classifying rare seizure types, and (3) lacking a quantitative interpretability approach to measure model ability to localize seizures. In this study, we address these challenges by (1) representing the spatiotemporal dependencies in EEGs using a graph neural network (GNN) and proposing two EEG graph structures that capture the electrode geometry or dynamic brain connectivity, (2) proposing a self-supervised pre-training method that predicts preprocessed signals for the next time period to further improve model performance, particularly on rare seizure types, and (3) proposing a quantitative model interpretability approach to assess a model's ability to localize seizures within EEGs. When evaluating our approach on seizure detection and classification on a large public dataset, we find that our GNN with self-supervised pre-training achieves 0.875 Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve on seizure detection and 0.749 weighted F1-score on seizure classification, outperforming previous methods for both seizure detection and classification. Moreover, our self-supervised pre-training strategy significantly improves classification of rare seizure types. Furthermore, quantitative interpretability analysis shows that our GNN with self-supervised pre-training precisely localizes 25.4% focal seizures, a 21.9 point improvement over existing CNNs. Finally, by superimposing the identified seizure locations on both raw EEG signals and EEG graphs, our approach could provide clinicians with an intuitive visualization of localized seizure regions.