Yu Liu

Runzhe Wan, Yu Liu, James McQueen et al.

With the growing needs of online A/B testing to support the innovation in industry, the opportunity cost of running an experiment becomes non-negligible. Therefore, there is an increasing demand for an efficient continuous monitoring service that allows early stopping when appropriate. Classic statistical methods focus on hypothesis testing and are mostly developed for traditional high-stake problems such as clinical trials, while experiments at online service companies typically have very different features and focuses. Motivated by the real needs, in this paper, we introduce a novel framework that we developed in Amazon to maximize customer experience and control opportunity cost. We formulate the problem as a Bayesian optimal sequential decision making problem that has a unified utility function. We discuss extensively practical design choices and considerations. We further introduce how to solve the optimal decision rule via Reinforcement Learning and scale the solution. We show the effectiveness of this novel approach compared with existing methods via a large-scale meta-analysis on experiments in Amazon.

Zhilun Zhou, Jingyang Fan, Yu Liu et al.

The fast development of location-based social networks (LBSNs) has led to significant changes in society, resulting in popular studies of using LBSN data for socioeconomic prediction, e.g., regional population and commercial activity estimation. Existing studies design various graphs to model heterogeneous LBSN data, and further apply graph representation learning methods for socioeconomic prediction. However, these approaches heavily rely on heuristic ideas and expertise to extract task-relevant knowledge from diverse data, which may not be optimal for specific tasks. Additionally, they tend to overlook the inherent relationships between different indicators, limiting the prediction accuracy. Motivated by the remarkable abilities of large language models (LLMs) in commonsense reasoning, embedding, and multi-agent collaboration, in this work, we synergize LLM agents and knowledge graph for socioeconomic prediction. We first construct a location-based knowledge graph (LBKG) to integrate multi-sourced LBSN data. Then we leverage the reasoning power of LLM agent to identify relevant meta-paths in the LBKG for each type of socioeconomic prediction task, and design a semantic-guided attention module for knowledge fusion with meta-paths. Moreover, we introduce a cross-task communication mechanism to further enhance performance by enabling knowledge sharing across tasks at both LLM agent and KG levels. On the one hand, the LLM agents for different tasks collaborate to generate more diverse and comprehensive meta-paths. On the other hand, the embeddings from different tasks are adaptively merged for better socioeconomic prediction. Experiments on two datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the synergistic design between LLM and KG, providing insights for information sharing across socioeconomic prediction tasks.

Hao Guo, Han Wang, Di Zhu et al.

Modeling spatial heterogeneity in the data generation process is essential for understanding and predicting geographical phenomena. Despite their prevalence in geospatial tasks, neural network models usually assume spatial stationarity, which could limit their performance in the presence of spatial process heterogeneity. By allowing model parameters to vary over space, several approaches have been proposed to incorporate spatial heterogeneity into neural networks. However, current geographically weighting approaches are ineffective on graph neural networks, yielding no significant improvement in prediction accuracy. We assume the crux lies in the over-fitting risk brought by a large number of local parameters. Accordingly, we propose to model spatial process heterogeneity at the regional level rather than at the individual level, which largely reduces the number of spatially varying parameters. We further develop a heuristic optimization procedure to learn the region partition adaptively in the process of model training. Our proposed spatial-heterogeneity-aware graph convolutional network, named RegionGCN, is applied to the spatial prediction of county-level vote share in the 2016 US presidential election based on socioeconomic attributes. Results show that RegionGCN achieves significant improvement over the basic and geographically weighted GCNs. We also offer an exploratory analysis tool for the spatial variation of non-linear relationships through ensemble learning of regional partitions from RegionGCN. Our work contributes to the practice of Geospatial Artificial Intelligence (GeoAI) in tackling spatial heterogeneity.