Zhong Zhang

Feng Xie, Zhong Zhang, Liang Li et al.

Epidemic forecasting is the key to effective control of epidemic transmission and helps the world mitigate the crisis that threatens public health. To better understand the transmission and evolution of epidemics, we propose EpiGNN, a graph neural network-based model for epidemic forecasting. Specifically, we design a transmission risk encoding module to characterize local and global spatial effects of regions in epidemic processes and incorporate them into the model. Meanwhile, we develop a Region-Aware Graph Learner (RAGL) that takes transmission risk, geographical dependencies, and temporal information into account to better explore spatial-temporal dependencies and makes regions aware of related regions' epidemic situations. The RAGL can also combine with external resources, such as human mobility, to further improve prediction performance. Comprehensive experiments on five real-world epidemic-related datasets (including influenza and COVID-19) demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method and show that EpiGNN outperforms state-of-the-art baselines by 9.48% in RMSE.

Feng Xie, Zhong Zhang, Xuechen Zhao et al.

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has caused immeasurable losses for people worldwide. To contain the spread of the virus and further alleviate the crisis, various health policies (e.g., stay-at-home orders) have been issued which spark heated discussions as users turn to share their attitudes on social media. In this paper, we consider a more realistic scenario on stance detection (i.e., cross-target and zero-shot settings) for the pandemic and propose an adversarial learning-based stance classifier to automatically identify the public's attitudes toward COVID-19-related health policies. Specifically, we adopt adversarial learning that allows the model to train on a large amount of labeled data and capture transferable knowledge from source topics, so as to enable generalize to the emerging health policies with sparse labeled data. To further enhance the model's deeper understanding, we incorporate policy descriptions as external knowledge into the model. Meanwhile, a GeoEncoder is designed which encourages the model to capture unobserved background factors specified by each region and then represent them as non-text information. We evaluate the performance of a broad range of baselines on the stance detection task for COVID-19-related health policies, and experimental results show that our proposed method achieves state-of-the-art performance in both cross-target and zero-shot settings.