Yang Liu

Jinfu Ren, Yang Liu, Jiming Liu

Decadal temperature prediction provides crucial information for quantifying the expected effects of future climate changes and thus informs strategic planning and decision-making in various domains. However, such long-term predictions are extremely challenging, due to the chaotic nature of temperature variations. Moreover, the usefulness of existing simulation-based and machine learning-based methods for this task is limited because initial simulation or prediction errors increase exponentially over time. To address this challenging task, we devise a novel prediction method involving an information tracking mechanism that aims to track and adapt to changes in temperature dynamics during the prediction phase by providing probabilistic feedback on the prediction error of the next step based on the current prediction. We integrate this information tracking mechanism, which can be considered as a model calibrator, into the objective function of our method to obtain the corrections needed to avoid error accumulation. Our results show the ability of our method to accurately predict global land-surface temperatures over a decadal range. Furthermore, we demonstrate that our results are meaningful in a real-world context: the temperatures predicted using our method are consistent with and can be used to explain the well-known teleconnections within and between different continents.

Yifan Zhang, Liang Hu, Haofeng Sun et al.

Despite recent progress in multimodal agentic systems, existing approaches often treat image manipulation and web search as disjoint capabilities, rely heavily on costly reinforcement learning, and lack planning grounded in real tool-execution traces. To address these limitations, we present Skywork-R1V4, a 30B (A3B) parameter multimodal agentic model that unifies multimodal planning, active image manipulation ("thinking with images"), deep multimodal search, and, most critically, interleaved reasoning that dynamically alternates between visual operations and external knowledge retrieval. Trained solely via supervised fine-tuning on fewer than 30,000 high-quality, planning-execution-consistent trajectories and validated through stepwise consistency filtering, Skywork-R1V4 achieves state-of-the-art results across perception and multimodal search benchmarks: it scores 66.1 on MMSearch and 67.2 on FVQA, surpassing Gemini 2.5 Flash on all 11 metrics. Skywork-R1V4 exhibits emergent long-horizon reasoning at inference time, successfully orchestrating more than 10 tool calls to solve complex, multi-step tasks. Our results demonstrate that sophisticated agentic multimodal intelligence can be achieved through carefully curated supervised learning alone, without any reliance on reinforcement learning.

Wei Wang, Yang Liu, Hao Sun

Time series prediction is a prevalent issue across various disciplines, such as meteorology, traffic surveillance, investment, and energy production and consumption. Many statistical and machine-learning strategies have been developed to tackle this problem. However, these approaches either lack explainability or exhibit less satisfactory performance when the prediction horizon increases. To this end, we propose a novel plan for the designing of networks' architecture based on transformations, possessing the potential to achieve an enhanced receptive field in learning which brings benefits to fuse features across scales. In this context, we introduce four different transformation mechanisms as bases to construct the learning model including Fourier Transform (FT), Singular Value Decomposition (SVD), matrix multiplication and Conv block. Hence, we develop four learning models based on the above building blocks, namely, FT-Matrix, FT-SVD, FT-Conv, and Conv-SVD. Note that the FT and SVD blocks are capable of learning global information, while the Conv blocks focus on learning local information. The matrix block is sparsely designed to learn both global and local information simultaneously. The above Transformation Learning Networks (TLNets) have been extensively tested and compared with multiple baseline models based on several real-world datasets and showed clear potential in long-range time-series forecasting.