Deep neural networks are increasingly utilized in mobility prediction tasks, yet their intricate internal workings pose challenges for interpretability, especially in comprehending how various aspects of mobility behavior affect predictions. This study introduces a causal intervention framework to assess the impact of mobility-related factors on neural networks designed for next location prediction -- a task focusing on predicting the immediate next location of an individual. To achieve this, we employ individual mobility models to synthesize location visit sequences and control behavior dynamics by intervening in their data generation process. We evaluate the interventional location sequences using mobility metrics and input them into well-trained networks to analyze performance variations. The results demonstrate the effectiveness in producing location sequences with distinct mobility behaviors, thereby facilitating the simulation of diverse yet realistic spatial and temporal changes. These changes result in performance fluctuations in next location prediction networks, revealing impacts of critical mobility behavior factors, including sequential patterns in location transitions, proclivity for exploring new locations, and preferences in location choices at population and individual levels. The gained insights hold value for the real-world application of mobility prediction networks, and the framework is expected to promote the use of causal inference to enhance the interpretability and robustness of neural networks in mobility applications.
Detecting travel modes from global navigation satellite system (GNSS) trajectories is essential for understanding individual travel behavior and a prerequisite for achieving sustainable transport systems. While studies have acknowledged the benefits of incorporating geospatial context information into travel mode detection models, few have summarized context modeling approaches and analyzed the significance of these context features, hindering the development of an efficient model. Here, we identify context representations from related work and propose an analytical pipeline to assess the contribution of geospatial context information for travel mode detection based on a random forest model and the SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) method. Through experiments on a large-scale GNSS tracking dataset, we report that features describing relationships with infrastructure networks, such as the distance to the railway or road network, significantly contribute to the model's prediction. Moreover, features related to the geospatial point entities help identify public transport travel, but most land-use and land-cover features barely contribute to the task. We finally reveal that geospatial contexts have distinct contributions in identifying different travel modes, providing insights into selecting appropriate context information and modeling approaches. The results from this study enhance our understanding of the relationship between movement and geospatial context and guide the implementation of effective and efficient transport mode detection models.