Jinyi Ye

Tuğrulcan Elmas, Filipi Nascimento Silva, Manita Pote et al.

Coordinated campaigns on social media play a critical role in shaping crisis information environments, particularly during the onset of conflicts when uncertainty is high and verified information is scarce. We study the interplay between coordinated campaigns and information integrity through a case study of the 2023 Israel-Hamas War on Twitter (X). We analyze 4.5~million tweets and employ established coordination detection methods to identify 11 coordinated groups involving 541 accounts. We characterize these groups through a multimodal analysis that includes topics, account amplification, toxicity, emotional tone, visual themes, and misleading claims. Our analysis reveal that coordinated campaigns rely predominantly on low-complexity tactics, such as retweet amplification and copy-paste diffusion, and promote distinct narratives consistent with a fragmented manipulation landscape, without centralized control. Widely amplified misleading claims concentrate within just three of the identified coordinated groups; the remaining groups primarily engage in advocacy, religious solidarity, or humanitarian mobilization. Claim-level integrity, toxicity, and emotional signals are mutually uncorrelated: no single behavioral signal is a reliable proxy for the others. Targeting the most prolific spreaders of misleading content for moderation would be effective in reducing such content. However, targeting prolific amplifiers in general would not achieve the same mitigation effect. These findings suggest that evaluating coordination structures jointly with their specific content footprints is needed to effectively prioritize moderation interventions.

Jinyi Ye, Lei Cao, Ding Chen et al.

The scientific claims drawn from LLM social simulations should be no stronger than the robustness audits that support them. Generative agents bring new expressive power to agent-based modeling, enabling simulations of collective social processes like cooperation, polarization, and norm formation. Yet they also introduce complexity through additional architectural choices, such as agent specification, memory representation, interaction protocols, and environment design. Small perturbations that appear minor to researchers can cascade into macro-level outcomes through repeated interaction, creating a "butterfly effect." Consequently, scientific claims drawn from LLM social simulations may reflect implementation artifacts rather than the social mechanisms being modeled. We support this position with two case studies: a repeated Prisoner's Dilemma and a social media echo chamber simulation. Across multiple models, minor perturbations in persona format and game-instruction framing shift cooperation rates by up to 76 percentage points, while network homophily and hub assignment produce significant and consistent shifts in polarization metrics. We also find that sensitivity is unevenly distributed across both architectural choices and model families: the same perturbation that produces the 76 pp shift in one frontier model only shifts another by 1 pp. Robustness is therefore a property that should be measured per claim and per model, not assumed. To address this validation gap, we introduce TRAILS (Taxonomy for Robustness Audits In LLM Simulations), a robustness-audit taxonomy spanning three levels of simulation design: agent (micro-level), interaction (meso-level), and system (macro-level). We call for robustness to become a first-order validation requirement before LLM social simulations are used to explain mechanisms, evaluate interventions, or inform decisions.

Chenxiao Yu, Bowen Yi, Farzan Karimi-Malekabadi et al.

Large language models (LLMs) often produce human-like moral judgments, but it is unclear whether this reflects an internal conceptual structure or superficial ``moral mimicry.'' Using Moral Foundations Theory (MFT) as an analytic framework, we study how moral foundations are encoded, organized, and expressed within two instruction-tuned LLMs: Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct and Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct. We employ a multi-level approach combining (i) layer-wise analysis of MFT concept representations and their alignment with human moral perceptions, (ii) pretrained sparse autoencoders (SAEs) over the residual stream to identify sparse features that support moral concepts, and (iii) causal steering interventions using dense MFT vectors and sparse SAE features. We find that both models represent and distinguish moral foundations in a structured, layer-dependent way that aligns with human judgments. At a finer scale, SAE features show clear semantic links to specific foundations, suggesting partially disentangled mechanisms within shared representations. Finally, steering along either dense vectors or sparse features produces predictable shifts in foundation-relevant behavior, demonstrating a causal connection between internal representations and moral outputs. Together, our results provide mechanistic evidence that moral concepts in LLMs are distributed, layered, and partly disentangled, suggesting that pluralistic moral structure can emerge as a latent pattern from the statistical regularities of language alone.

Chenxiao Yu, Jinyi Ye, Yuangang Li et al.

While LLMs have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in text generation and reasoning, their ability to simulate human decision-making -- particularly in political contexts -- remains an open question. However, modeling voter behavior presents unique challenges due to limited voter-level data, evolving political landscapes, and the complexity of human reasoning. In this study, we develop a theory-driven, multi-step reasoning framework that integrates demographic, temporal and ideological factors to simulate voter decision-making at scale. Using synthetic personas calibrated to real-world voter data, we conduct large-scale simulations of recent U.S. presidential elections. Our method significantly improves simulation accuracy while mitigating model biases. We examine its robustness by comparing performance across different LLMs. We further investigate the challenges and constraints that arise from LLM-based political simulations. Our work provides both a scalable framework for modeling political decision-making behavior and insights into the promise and limitations of using LLMs in political science research.