Patrick T. Brandt

Yibo Hu, Erick Skorupa Parolin, Latifur Khan et al. · gatech

Is it possible accurately classify political relations within evolving event ontologies without extensive annotations? This study investigates zero-shot learning methods that use expert knowledge from existing annotation codebook, and evaluates the performance of advanced ChatGPT (GPT-3.5/4) and a natural language inference (NLI)-based model called ZSP. ChatGPT uses codebook's labeled summaries as prompts, whereas ZSP breaks down the classification task into context, event mode, and class disambiguation to refine task-specific hypotheses. This decomposition enhances interpretability, efficiency, and adaptability to schema changes. The experiments reveal ChatGPT's strengths and limitations, and crucially show ZSP's outperformance of dictionary-based methods and its competitive edge over some supervised models. These findings affirm the value of ZSP for validating event records and advancing ontology development. Our study underscores the efficacy of leveraging transfer learning and existing domain expertise to enhance research efficiency and scalability.

Håvard Hegre, Paola Vesco, Michael Colaresi et al.

This draft article outlines a prediction challenge where the target is to forecast the number of fatalities in armed conflicts, in the form of the UCDP `best' estimates, aggregated to the VIEWS units of analysis. It presents the format of the contributions, the evaluation metric, and the procedures, and a brief summary of the contributions. The article serves a function analogous to a pre-analysis plan: a statement of the forecasting models made publicly available before the true future prediction window commences. More information on the challenge, and all data referred to in this document, can be found at https://viewsforecasting.org/research/prediction-challenge-2023.

Patrick T. Brandt, Sultan Alsarra, Vito J. D`Orazio et al.

Conflict scholars have used rule-based approaches to extract information about political violence from news reports and texts. Recent Natural Language Processing developments move beyond rigid rule-based approaches. We review our recent ConfliBERT language model (Hu et al. 2022) to process political and violence related texts. The model can be used to extract actor and action classifications from texts about political conflict. When fine-tuned, results show that ConfliBERT has superior performance in accuracy, precision and recall over other large language models (LLM) like Google's Gemma 2 (9B), Meta's Llama 3.1 (7B), and Alibaba's Qwen 2.5 (14B) within its relevant domains. It is also hundreds of times faster than these more generalist LLMs. These results are illustrated using texts from the BBC, re3d, and the Global Terrorism Dataset (GTD).