Bo Li

Bo Li, Ali Mostafavi

The standard model of infrastructure resilience, the resilience triangle, has been the primary way of characterizing and quantifying infrastructure resilience. However, the theoretical model merely provides a one-size-fits-all framework for all infrastructure systems. Most of the existing studies examine the characteristics of infrastructure resilience curves based on analytical models constructed upon simulated system performance. Limited empirical studies hindered our ability to fully understand and predict resilience characteristics in infrastructure systems. To address this gap, this study examined over 200 resilience curves related to power outages in three major extreme weather events. Using unsupervised machine learning, we examined different curve archetypes, as well as the fundamental properties of each resilience curve archetype. The results show two primary archetypes for power system resilience curves, triangular, and trapezoidal curves. Triangular curves characterize resilience behavior based on 1. critical functionality threshold, 2. critical functionality recovery rate, and 3. recovery pivot point. Trapezoidal archetypes explain resilience curves based on 1. duration of sustained function loss and 2. constant recovery rate. The longer the duration of sustained function loss, the slower the constant rate of recovery. The findings of this study provide novel perspectives enabling better understanding and prediction of resilience performance of power system infrastructures.

Junwei Ma, Bo Li, Olufemi A. Omitaomu et al.

Power outages have become increasingly frequent, intense, and prolonged in the US due to climate change, aging electrical grids, and rising energy demand. However, largely due to the absence of granular spatiotemporal outage data, we lack data-driven evidence and analytics-based metrics to quantify power system vulnerability. This limitation has hindered the ability to effectively evaluate and address vulnerability to power outages in US communities. Here, we collected ~179 million power outage records at 15-minute intervals across 3022 US contiguous counties (96.15% of the area) from 2014 to 2023. We developed a power system vulnerability assessment framework based on three dimensions (intensity, frequency, and duration) and applied interpretable machine learning models (XGBoost and SHAP) to compute Power System Vulnerability Index (PSVI) at the county level. Our analysis reveals a consistent increase in power system vulnerability over the past decade. We identified 318 counties across 45 states as hotspots for high power system vulnerability, particularly in the West Coast (California and Washington), the East Coast (Florida and the Northeast area), the Great Lakes megalopolis (Chicago-Detroit metropolitan areas), and the Gulf of Mexico (Texas). Heterogeneity analysis indicates that urban counties, counties with interconnected grids, and states with high solar generation exhibit significantly higher vulnerability. Our results highlight the significance of the proposed PSVI for evaluating the vulnerability of communities to power outages. The findings underscore the widespread and pervasive impact of power outages across the country and offer crucial insights to support infrastructure operators, policymakers, and emergency managers in formulating policies and programs aimed at enhancing the resilience of the US power infrastructure.

Bo Li, Junwei Ma, Kai Yin et al.

The escalating frequency and severity of disasters routinely overwhelm traditional response capabilities, exposing critical vulnerability in disaster management. Current practices are hindered by fragmented data streams, siloed technologies, resource constraints, and the erosion of institutional memory, which collectively impede timely and effective decision making. This study introduces Disaster Copilot, a vision for a multi-agent artificial intelligence system designed to overcome these systemic challenges by unifying specialized AI tools within a collaborative framework. The proposed architecture utilizes a central orchestrator to coordinate diverse sub-agents, each specializing in critical domains such as predictive risk analytics, situational awareness, and impact assessment. By integrating multi-modal data, the system delivers a holistic, real-time operational picture and serve as the essential AI backbone required to advance Disaster Digital Twins from passive models to active, intelligent environments. Furthermore, it ensures functionality in resource-limited environments through on-device orchestration and incorporates mechanisms to capture institutional knowledge, mitigating the impact of staff turnover. We detail the system architecture and propose a three-phased roadmap emphasizing the parallel growth of technology, organizational capacity, and human-AI teaming. Disaster Copilot offers a transformative vision, fostering collective human-machine intelligence to build more adaptive, data-driven and resilient communities.

Bo Li, Ali Mostafavi

The objective of this study is to characterize inequality in infrastructure quality across urban areas. While a growing of body of literature has recognized the importance of characterizing infrastructure inequality in cities and provided quantified metrics to inform urban development plans, the majority of the existing approaches focus primarily on measuring the quantity of infrastructure, assuming that more infrastructure is better. Also, the existing research focuses primarily on index-based approaches in which the status of infrastructure provision in urban areas is determined based on assumed subjective weights. The focus on infrastructure quantity and use of indices obtained from subjective weights has hindered the ability to properly examine infrastructure inequality as it pertains to urban inequality and environmental justice considerations. Recognizing this gap, we propose a machine learning-based approach in which infrastructure features that shape environmental hazard exposure are identified and we use the weights obtained by the model to calculate an infrastructure quality provision for spatial areas of cities and accordingly, quantify the extent of inequality in infrastructure quality. The implementation of the model in five metropolitan areas in the U.S. demonstrates the capability of the proposed approach in characterizing inequality in infrastructure quality and capturing city-specific differences in the weights of infrastructure features. The results also show that areas in which low-income populations reside have lower infrastructure quality provision, suggesting the lower infrastructure quality provision as a determinant of urban disparities. Accordingly, the proposed approach can be effectively used to inform integrated urban design strategies to promote infrastructure equity and environmental justice based on data-driven and machine intelligence-based insights.