Qiao Sun

Qiao Sun, Xin Huang, Brian C. Williams et al.

Motion prediction is crucial in enabling safe motion planning for autonomous vehicles in interactive scenarios. It allows the planner to identify potential conflicts with other traffic agents and generate safe plans. Existing motion predictors often focus on reducing prediction errors, yet it remains an open question on how well they help identify the conflicts for the planner. In this paper, we evaluate state-of-the-art predictors through novel conflict-related metrics, such as the success rate of identifying conflicts. Surprisingly, the predictors suffer from a low success rate and thus lead to a large percentage of collisions when we test the prediction-planning system in an interactive simulator. To fill the gap, we propose a simple but effective alternative that combines a physics-based trajectory generator and a learning-based relation predictor to identify conflicts and infer conflict relations. We demonstrate that our predictor, P4P, achieves superior performance over existing learning-based predictors in realistic interactive driving scenarios from Waymo Open Motion Dataset.

Zenan Li, Fan Nie, Qiao Sun et al.

Learning-based vehicle planning is receiving increasing attention with the emergence of diverse driving simulators and large-scale driving datasets. While offline reinforcement learning (RL) is well suited for these safety-critical tasks, it still struggles to plan over extended periods. In this work, we present a skill-based framework that enhances offline RL to overcome the long-horizon vehicle planning challenge. Specifically, we design a variational autoencoder (VAE) to learn skills from offline demonstrations. To mitigate posterior collapse of common VAEs, we introduce a two-branch sequence encoder to capture both discrete options and continuous variations of the complex driving skills. The final policy treats learned skills as actions and can be trained by any off-the-shelf offline RL algorithms. This facilitates a shift in focus from per-step actions to temporally extended skills, thereby enabling long-term reasoning into the future. Extensive results on CARLA prove that our model consistently outperforms strong baselines at both training and new scenarios. Additional visualizations and experiments demonstrate the interpretability and transferability of extracted skills.

Xin Huang, Xiaoyu Tian, Junru Gu et al.

Predicting future behaviors of road agents is a key task in autonomous driving. While existing models have demonstrated great success in predicting marginal agent future behaviors, it remains a challenge to efficiently predict consistent joint behaviors of multiple agents. Recently, the occupancy flow fields representation was proposed to represent joint future states of road agents through a combination of occupancy grid and flow, which supports efficient and consistent joint predictions. In this work, we propose a novel occupancy flow fields predictor to produce accurate occupancy and flow predictions, by combining the power of an image encoder that learns features from a rasterized traffic image and a vector encoder that captures information of continuous agent trajectories and map states. The two encoded features are fused by multiple attention modules before generating final predictions. Our simple but effective model ranks 3rd place on the Waymo Open Dataset Occupancy and Flow Prediction Challenge, and achieves the best performance in the occluded occupancy and flow prediction task.

Junru Gu, Qiao Sun, Hang Zhao

In autonomous driving, goal-based multi-trajectory prediction methods are proved to be effective recently, where they first score goal candidates, then select a final set of goals, and finally complete trajectories based on the selected goals. However, these methods usually involve goal predictions based on sparse predefined anchors. In this work, we propose an anchor-free model, named DenseTNT, which performs dense goal probability estimation for trajectory prediction. Our model achieves state-of-the-art performance, and ranks 1st on the Waymo Open Dataset Motion Prediction Challenge. Project page is at https://github.com/Tsinghua-MARS-Lab/DenseTNT.

Qiao Sun, Xin Huang, Junru Gu et al.

Predicting future motions of road participants is an important task for driving autonomously in urban scenes. Existing models excel at predicting marginal trajectories for single agents, yet it remains an open question to jointly predict scene compliant trajectories over multiple agents. The challenge is due to exponentially increasing prediction space as a function of the number of agents. In this work, we exploit the underlying relations between interacting agents and decouple the joint prediction problem into marginal prediction problems. Our proposed approach M2I first classifies interacting agents as pairs of influencers and reactors, and then leverages a marginal prediction model and a conditional prediction model to predict trajectories for the influencers and reactors, respectively. The predictions from interacting agents are combined and selected according to their joint likelihoods. Experiments show that our simple but effective approach achieves state-of-the-art performance on the Waymo Open Motion Dataset interactive prediction benchmark.