Buddhika Nettasinghe

Buddhika Nettasinghe, Samrat Chatterjee, Ramakrishna Tipireddy et al.

Conformal prediction is a widely used method to quantify the uncertainty of a classifier under the assumption of exchangeability (e.g., IID data). We generalize conformal prediction to the Hidden Markov Model (HMM) framework where the assumption of exchangeability is not valid. The key idea of the proposed method is to partition the non-exchangeable Markovian data from the HMM into exchangeable blocks by exploiting the de Finetti's Theorem for Markov Chains discovered by Diaconis and Freedman (1980). The permutations of the exchangeable blocks are viewed as randomizations of the observed Markovian data from the HMM. The proposed method provably retains all desirable theoretical guarantees offered by the classical conformal prediction framework in both exchangeable and Markovian settings. In particular, while the lack of exchangeability introduced by Markovian samples constitutes a violation of a crucial assumption for classical conformal prediction, the proposed method views it as an advantage that can be exploited to improve the performance further. Detailed numerical and empirical results that complement the theoretical conclusions are provided to illustrate the practical feasibility of the proposed method.

Alisson Serracín Morales, Buddhika Nettasinghe

Affective polarization, the emotional divide characterized by in-group love (trust towards fellow partisans) and out-group hate (mistrust towards those with opposite political views), has become prevalent in the current society. Despite its prevalence, the role of social network structure in the dynamics of affective polarization is yet to be well-understood. We provide a mean-field approximation of opinion dynamics under affective polarization on Watts-Strogatz and power-law (scale-free) networks. Our results show that consensus is fragile in social networks with power-law degree distributions, and the smaller average path length of the network (resembling a small-world network) makes achieving the consensus further difficult. Simulations and numerical experiments on real-world networks indicate that the mean-field model is aligned with the actual dynamics. Our findings shed light on how real-world network properties shape the dynamics of affective polarization and why consensus remains elusive in the real-world.

Buddhika Nettasinghe, Ashwin Rao, Bohan Jiang et al.

Affective polarization, the emotional divide between ideological groups marked by in-group love and out-group hate, has intensified in the United States, driving contentious issues like masking and lockdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite its societal impact, existing models of opinion change fail to account for emotional dynamics nor offer methods to quantify affective polarization robustly and in real-time. In this paper, we introduce a discrete choice model that captures decision-making within affectively polarized social networks and propose a statistical inference method estimate key parameters -- in-group love and out-group hate -- from social media data. Through empirical validation from online discussions about the COVID-19 pandemic, we demonstrate that our approach accurately captures real-world polarization dynamics and explains the rapid emergence of a partisan gap in attitudes towards masking and lockdowns. This framework allows for tracking affective polarization across contentious issues has broad implications for fostering constructive online dialogues in digital spaces.

Buddhika Nettasinghe, Geethu Joseph

Large language models are often viewed as high-dimensional nonlinear systems and treated as black boxes. Here, we show that transformer depth dynamics admit accurate low-order linear surrogates within context. Across tasks including toxicity, irony, hate speech and sentiment, a 32-dimensional linear surrogate reproduces the layerwise sensitivity profile of GPT-2-large with near-perfect agreement, capturing how the final output shifts under additive injections at each layer. We then uncover a surprising scaling principle: for a fixed-order linear surrogate, agreement with the full model improves monotonically with model size across the GPT-2 family. This linear surrogate also enables principled multi-layer interventions that require less energy than standard heuristic schedules when applied to the full model. Together, our results reveal that as language models scale, low-order linear depth dynamics emerge within contexts, offering a systems-theoretic foundation for analyzing and controlling them.

Buddhika Nettasinghe, Kang Zhao

Humans and large language models (LLMs) now co-produce and co-consume the web's shared knowledge archives. Such human-AI collective knowledge ecosystems contain feedback loops with both benefits (e.g., faster growth, easier learning) and systemic risks (e.g., quality dilution, skill reduction, model collapse). To understand such phenomena, we propose a minimal, interpretable dynamical model of the co-evolution of archive size, archive quality, model (LLM) skill, aggregate human skill, and query volume. The model captures two content inflows (human, LLM) controlled by a gate on LLM-content admissions, two learning pathways for humans (archive study vs. LLM assistance), and two LLM-training modalities (corpus-driven scaling vs. learning from human feedback). Through numerical experiments, we identify different growth regimes (e.g., healthy growth, inverted flow, inverted learning, oscillations), and show how platform and policy levers (gate strictness, LLM training, human learning pathways) shift the system across regime boundaries. Two domain configurations (PubMed, GitHub and Copilot) illustrate contrasting steady states under different growth rates and moderation norms. We also fit the model to Wikipedia's knowledge flow during pre-ChatGPT and post-ChatGPT eras separately. We find a rise in LLM additions with a concurrent decline in human inflow, consistent with a regime identified by the model. Our model and analysis yield actionable insights for sustainable growth of human-AI collective knowledge on the Web.

Rui Luo, Buddhika Nettasinghe, Vikram Krishnamurthy

This paper studies detecting anomalous edges in directed graphs that model social networks. We exploit edge exchangeability as a criterion for distinguishing anomalous edges from normal edges. Then we present an anomaly detector based on conformal prediction theory; this detector has a guaranteed upper bound for false positive rate. In numerical experiments, we show that the proposed algorithm achieves superior performance to baseline methods.