Ilan Doron-Arad

Ilan Doron-Arad, Elchanan Mossel · mit

Theoretical analyses of Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) are standardly framed within the Real-RAM model of computation. In this setting, training even simple neural networks is known to be $\exists \mathbb{R}$-complete -- a complexity class believed to be harder than NP, that characterizes the difficulty of solving systems of polynomial inequalities over the real numbers. However, this algebraic framework diverges from the reality of digital computation with finite-precision hardware. In this work, we analyze the theoretical complexity of ERM under a realistic bit-level model ($\mathsf{ERM}_{\text{bit}}$), where network parameters and inputs are constrained to be rational numbers with polynomially bounded bit-lengths. Under this model, we reveal a sharp dichotomy in tractability governed by the network's activation function. We prove that for deep networks with {\em any} polynomial activations with rational coefficients and degree at least $2$, the bit-complexity of training is severe: deciding $\mathsf{ERM}_{\text{bit}}$ is $\#P$-Hard, hence believed to be strictly harder than NP-complete problems. Furthermore, we show that determining the sign of a single partial derivative of the empirical loss function is intractable (unlikely in BPP), and deciding a specific bit in the gradient is $\#P$-Hard. This provides a complexity-theoretic perspective for the phenomenon of exploding and vanishing gradients. In contrast, we show that for piecewise-linear activations such as ReLU, the precision requirements remain manageable: $\mathsf{ERM}_{\text{bit}}$ is contained within NP (specifically NP-complete), and standard backpropagation runs in polynomial time. Our results demonstrate that finite-precision constraints are not merely implementation details but fundamental determinants of learnability.

Ilan Doron-Arad, Idan Mehalel, Elchanan Mossel · mit

Realizable online regression can behave very differently from online classification. Even without any margin or stochastic assumptions, realizability may enforce horizon-free (finite) cumulative loss under metric-like losses, even when the analogous classification problem has an infinite mistake bound. We study realizable online regression in the adversarial model under losses that satisfy an approximate triangle inequality (approximate pseudo-metrics). Recent work of Attias et al. shows that the minimax realizable cumulative loss is characterized by the scaled Littlestone/online dimension $\mathbb{D}_{\mathrm{onl}}$, but this quantity can be difficult to analyze. Our main contribution is a generic potential method that upper bounds $\mathbb{D}_{\mathrm{onl}}$ by a concrete Dudley-type entropy integral that depends only on covering numbers of the hypothesis class under the induced sup pseudo-metric. We define an \emph{entropy potential} $Φ(\mathcal{H})=\int_{0}^{diam(\mathcal{H})} \log N(\mathcal{H},\varepsilon)\,d\varepsilon$, where $N(\mathcal{H},\varepsilon)$ is the $\varepsilon$-covering number of $\mathcal{H}$, and show that for every $c$-approximate pseudo-metric loss, $\mathbb{D}_{\mathrm{onl}}(\mathcal{H})\le O(c)\,Φ(\mathcal{H})$. In particular, polynomial metric entropy implies $Φ(\mathcal{H})<\infty$ and hence a horizon-free realizable cumulative-loss bound with transparent dependence on effective dimension. We illustrate the method on two families. We prove a sharp $q$-vs.-$d$ dichotomy for realizable online learning (finite and efficiently achievable $Θ_{d,q}(L^d)$ total loss for $L$-Lipschitz regression iff $q>d$, otherwise infinite), and for bounded-norm $k$-ReLU networks separate regression (finite loss, even $\widetilde O(k^2)$, and $O(1)$ for one ReLU) from classification (impossible already for $k=2,d=1$).

Ilan Doron-Arad, Hadas Shachnai, Gilad Shmerler et al.

Consider costly and time-consuming tasks that add up to the success of a project, and must be fitted into a given time-frame. This is an instance of the classic budgeted maximization (knapsack) problem, which admits an FPTAS. Now assume an agent is performing these tasks on behalf of a principal, who is the one to reap the rewards if the project succeeds. The principal must design a contract to incentivize the agent. Is there still an approximation scheme? In this work we lay the foundations for an algorithm-to-contract framework, which transforms algorithms for combinatorial problems to handle contract design problems subject to the same combinatorial constraints. Our approach diverges from previous works in avoiding the assumption of demand oracle access. As an example, for budgeted maximization, we show how to "lift" the classic FPTAS to the best-possible (approximately-IC) FPTAS for the contract problem. We establish this through our local-to-global framework, in which the local step is to approximately solve a two-sided strengthened variant of the demand problem. The global step then utilizes the local one to find the approximately optimal contract. We apply our framework to a host of combinatorial constraints: multi-dimensional budgets, budgeted matroid, and budgeted matching constraints. In all cases we essentially match the best purely algorithmic approximation. Separately, we also develop a method for multi-agent contract settings. Our method yields the first approximation schemes for multi-agent contract settings that go beyond additive reward functions.

Ilan Doron-Arad, Idan Mehalel, Elchanan Mossel

Autoregressive generation lies at the heart of the mechanism of large language models. It can be viewed as the repeated application of a next-token generator: starting from an input string (prompt), the generator is applied for $M$ steps, and the last generated token is taken as the final output. [Joshi et al., 2025] proposed a PAC model for studying the learnability of the input-output maps arising from this process. We develop an online analogue of this framework, focusing on the mistake bound of learning the final output induced by an unknown next-token generator. We distinguish between two forms of feedback. In the End-to-End model, after each round the learner observes only the final token produced after $M$ autoregressive steps. In the Chain-of-Thought model, the learner is additionally shown the entire $M$-step trajectory. Our goal is to understand how the optimal mistake bound depends on the generation horizon $M$, and to what extent observing intermediate tokens can reduce this dependence. Our main results show that the online theory of autoregressive learning exhibits a qualitative picture analogous to the statistical one found by [Hanneke et al., 2026], but with a different scale of dependence on the generation horizon. In the End-to-End model, we prove a taxonomy of possible mistake-bound growth rates in the generation horizon $M$: essentially any rate between constant and logarithmic can arise. We further show that this logarithmic ceiling is unavoidable. In the Chain-of-Thought model, we show that access to the full generated trajectory eliminates the dependence on $M$ altogether. We also analyze autoregressive linear threshold classes, and prove optimal mistake bounds, as well as a new lower bound for the statistical setting. Along the way, our results resolve several questions left open by [Joshi et al., 2025].

Ilan Doron-Arad

We study neural network training (NNT): optimizing a neural network's parameters to minimize the training loss over a given dataset. NNT has been studied extensively under theoretic lenses, mainly on two-layer networks with linear or ReLU activation functions where the parameters can take any real value (here referred to as continuous NNT (C-NNT)). However, less is known about deeper neural networks, which exhibit substantially stronger capabilities in practice. In addition, the complexity of the discrete variant of the problem (D-NNT in short), in which the parameters are taken from a given finite set of options, has remained less explored despite its theoretical and practical significance. In this work, we show that the hardness of NNT is dramatically affected by the network depth. Specifically, we show that, under standard complexity assumptions, D-NNT is not in the complexity class NP even for instances with fixed dimensions and dataset size, having a deep architecture. This separates D-NNT from any NP-complete problem. Furthermore, using a polynomial reduction we show that the above result also holds for C-NNT, albeit with more structured instances. We complement these results with a comprehensive list of NP-hardness lower bounds for D-NNT on two-layer networks, showing that fixing the number of dimensions, the dataset size, or the number of neurons in the hidden layer leaves the problem challenging. Finally, we obtain a pseudo-polynomial algorithm for D-NNT on a two-layer network with a fixed dataset size.