Bo Liang

Bo Liang, Lin Wang, Xiaofan Wang

Revealing the continuous dynamics on the networks is essential for understanding, predicting, and even controlling complex systems, but it is hard to learn and model the continuous network dynamics because of complex and unknown governing equations, high dimensions of complex systems, and unsatisfactory observations. Moreover, in real cases, observed time-series data are usually non-uniform and sparse, which also causes serious challenges. In this paper, we propose an Autoregressive GNN-ODE GRU Model (AGOG) to learn and capture the continuous network dynamics and realize predictions of node states at an arbitrary time in a data-driven manner. The GNN module is used to model complicated and nonlinear network dynamics. The hidden state of node states is specified by the ODE system, and the augmented ODE system is utilized to map the GNN into the continuous time domain. The hidden state is updated through GRUCell by observations. As prior knowledge, the true observations at the same timestamp are combined with the hidden states for the next prediction. We use the autoregressive model to make a one-step ahead prediction based on observation history. The prediction is achieved by solving an initial-value problem for ODE. To verify the performance of our model, we visualize the learned dynamics and test them in three tasks: interpolation reconstruction, extrapolation prediction, and regular sequences prediction. The results demonstrate that our model can capture the continuous dynamic process of complex systems accurately and make precise predictions of node states with minimal error. Our model can consistently outperform other baselines or achieve comparable performance.

Bo Liang, Hanlin Song, Chang Liu et al.

In this work, we propose a new flow-matching Markov chain Monte Carlo (FM-MCMC) algorithm for estimating the orbital parameters of exoplanetary systems, especially for those only one exoplanet is involved. Compared to traditional methods that rely on random sampling within the Bayesian framework, our approach first leverages flow matching posterior estimation (FMPE) to efficiently constrain the prior range of physical parameters, and then employs MCMC to accurately infer the posterior distribution. For example, in the orbital parameter inference of beta Pictoris b, our model achieved a substantial speed-up while maintaining comparable accuracy-running 77.8 times faster than Parallel Tempered MCMC (PTMCMC) and 365.4 times faster than nested sampling. Moreover, our FM-MCMC method also attained the highest average log-likelihood among all approaches, demonstrating its superior sampling efficiency and accuracy. This highlights the scalability and efficiency of our approach, making it well-suited for processing the massive datasets expected from future exoplanet surveys. Beyond astrophysics, our methodology establishes a versatile paradigm for synergizing deep generative models with traditional sampling, which can be adopted to tackle complex inference problems in other fields, such as cosmology, biomedical imaging, and particle physics.