Yixin Chen

Xiannan Huang, Yixin Chen, Quan Yuan et al.

Predicting future bus trip chains for an existing user is of great significance for operators of public transit systems. Existing methods always treat this task as a time-series prediction problem, but the 1-dimensional time series structure cannot express the complex relationship between trips. To better capture the inherent patterns in bus travel behavior, this paper proposes a novel approach that synthesizes future bus trip chains based on those from similar days. Key similarity patterns are defined and tested using real-world data, and a similarity function is then developed to capture these patterns. Afterwards, a graph is constructed where each day is represented as a node and edge weight reflects the similarity between days. Besides, the trips on a given day can be regarded as labels for each node, transferring the bus trip chain prediction problem to a semi-supervised classification problem on a graph. To address this, we propose several methods and validate them on a real-world dataset of 10000 bus users, achieving state-of-the-art prediction results. Analyzing the parameters of similarity function reveals some interesting bus usage patterns, allowing us can to cluster bus users into three types: repeat-dominated, evolve-dominate and repeat-evolve balanced. In summary, our work demonstrates the effectiveness of similarity-based prediction for bus trip chains and provides a new perspective for analyzing individual bus travel patterns. The code for our prediction model is publicly available.

Qiang Lyu, Yixin Chen, Zhaorong Li et al.

A main focus of machine learning research has been improving the generalization accuracy and efficiency of prediction models. Many models such as SVM, random forest, and deep neural nets have been proposed and achieved great success. However, what emerges as missing in many applications is actionability, i.e., the ability to turn prediction results into actions. For example, in applications such as customer relationship management, clinical prediction, and advertisement, the users need not only accurate prediction, but also actionable instructions which can transfer an input to a desirable goal (e.g., higher profit repays, lower morbidity rates, higher ads hit rates). Existing effort in deriving such actionable knowledge is few and limited to simple action models which restricted to only change one attribute for each action. The dilemma is that in many real applications those action models are often more complex and harder to extract an optimal solution. In this paper, we propose a novel approach that achieves actionability by combining learning with planning, two core areas of AI. In particular, we propose a framework to extract actionable knowledge from random forest, one of the most widely used and best off-the-shelf classifiers. We formulate the actionability problem to a sub-optimal action planning (SOAP) problem, which is to find a plan to alter certain features of a given input so that the random forest would yield a desirable output, while minimizing the total costs of actions. Technically, the SOAP problem is formulated in the SAS+ planning formalism, and solved using a Max-SAT based approach. Our experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approach on a personal credit dataset and other benchmarks. Our work represents a new application of automated planning on an emerging and challenging machine learning paradigm.