Enhancing Multivariate Time Series Forecasting with Global Temporal RetrievalFanpu Cao, Lu Dai, Jindong Han et al.
Multivariate time series forecasting (MTSF) plays a vital role in numerous real-world applications, yet existing models remain constrained by their reliance on a limited historical context. This limitation prevents them from effectively capturing global periodic patterns that often span cycles significantly longer than the input horizon - despite such patterns carrying strong predictive signals. Naive solutions, such as extending the historical window, lead to severe drawbacks, including overfitting, prohibitive computational costs, and redundant information processing. To address these challenges, we introduce the Global Temporal Retriever (GTR), a lightweight and plug-and-play module designed to extend any forecasting model's temporal awareness beyond the immediate historical context. GTR maintains an adaptive global temporal embedding of the entire cycle and dynamically retrieves and aligns relevant global segments with the input sequence. By jointly modeling local and global dependencies through a 2D convolution and residual fusion, GTR effectively bridges short-term observations with long-term periodicity without altering the host model architecture. Extensive experiments on six real-world datasets demonstrate that GTR consistently delivers state-of-the-art performance across both short-term and long-term forecasting scenarios, while incurring minimal parameter and computational overhead. These results highlight GTR as an efficient and general solution for enhancing global periodicity modeling in MTSF tasks. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/macovaseas/GTR.
1.2SOC-PHMay 18, 2024
Real-Time Go-Around Prediction: A case study of JFK airportKe Liu, Kaijing Ding, Lu Dai et al.
In this paper, we employ the long-short-term memory model (LSTM) to predict the real-time go-around probability as an arrival flight is approaching JFK airport and within 10 nm of the landing runway threshold. We further develop methods to examine the causes to go-around occurrences both from a global view and an individual flight perspective. According to our results, in-trail spacing, and simultaneous runway operation appear to be the top factors that contribute to overall go-around occurrences. We then integrate these pre-trained models and analyses with real-time data streaming, and finally develop a demo web-based user interface that integrates the different components designed previously into a real-time tool that can eventually be used by flight crews and other line personnel to identify situations in which there is a high risk of a go-around.
5.4LGOct 13, 2019
Neural Program Synthesis By Self-LearningYifan Xu, Lu Dai, Udaikaran Singh et al.
Neural inductive program synthesis is a task generating instructions that can produce desired outputs from given inputs. In this paper, we focus on the generation of a chunk of assembly code that can be executed to match a state change inside the CPU and RAM. We develop a neural program synthesis algorithm, AutoAssemblet, learned via self-learning reinforcement learning that explores the large code space efficiently. Policy networks and value networks are learned to reduce the breadth and depth of the Monte Carlo Tree Search, resulting in better synthesis performance. We also propose an effective multi-entropy policy sampling technique to alleviate online update correlations. We apply AutoAssemblet to basic programming tasks and show significant higher success rates compared to several competing baselines.