Yang Yang

Yang Yang, Jin Lang, Jian Wu et al.

The increasing installation rate of wind power poses great challenges to the global power system. In order to ensure the reliable operation of the power system, it is necessary to accurately forecast the wind speed and power of the wind turbines. At present, deep learning is progressively applied to the wind speed prediction. Nevertheless, the recent deep learning methods still reflect the embarrassment for practical applications due to model interpretability and hardware limitation. To this end, a novel deep knowledge-based learning method is proposed in this paper. The proposed method hybridizes pre-training method and auto-encoder structure to improve data representation and modeling of the deep knowledge-based learning framework. In order to form knowledge and corresponding absorbers, the original data is preprocessed by an optimization model based on correlation to construct multi-layer networks (knowledge) which are absorbed by sequence to sequence (Seq2Seq) models. Specifically, new cognition and memory units (CMU) are designed to reinforce traditional deep learning framework. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by three wind prediction cases from a wind farm in Liaoning, China. Experimental results show that the proposed method increases the stability and training efficiency compared to the traditional LSTM method and LSTM/GRU-based Seq2Seq method for applications of wind speed forecasting.

Wenjie Hu, Yang Yang, Ziqiang Cheng et al.

The accurate and interpretable prediction of future events in time-series data often requires the capturing of representative patterns (or referred to as states) underpinning the observed data. To this end, most existing studies focus on the representation and recognition of states, but ignore the changing transitional relations among them. In this paper, we present evolutionary state graph, a dynamic graph structure designed to systematically represent the evolving relations (edges) among states (nodes) along time. We conduct analysis on the dynamic graphs constructed from the time-series data and show that changes on the graph structures (e.g., edges connecting certain state nodes) can inform the occurrences of events (i.e., time-series fluctuation). Inspired by this, we propose a novel graph neural network model, Evolutionary State Graph Network (EvoNet), to encode the evolutionary state graph for accurate and interpretable time-series event prediction. Specifically, Evolutionary State Graph Network models both the node-level (state-to-state) and graph-level (segment-to-segment) propagation, and captures the node-graph (state-to-segment) interactions over time. Experimental results based on five real-world datasets show that our approach not only achieves clear improvements compared with 11 baselines, but also provides more insights towards explaining the results of event predictions.