Renming Zhang

Jinhao Duan, Renming Zhang, James Diffenderfer et al.

As Large Language Models (LLMs) are integrated into critical real-world applications, their strategic and logical reasoning abilities are increasingly crucial. This paper evaluates LLMs' reasoning abilities in competitive environments through game-theoretic tasks, e.g., board and card games that require pure logic and strategic reasoning to compete with opponents. We first propose GTBench, a language-driven environment composing 10 widely recognized tasks, across a comprehensive game taxonomy: complete versus incomplete information, dynamic versus static, and probabilistic versus deterministic scenarios. Then, we (1) Characterize the game-theoretic reasoning of LLMs; and (2) Perform LLM-vs.-LLM competitions as reasoning evaluation. We observe that (1) LLMs have distinct behaviors regarding various gaming scenarios; for example, LLMs fail in complete and deterministic games yet they are competitive in probabilistic gaming scenarios; (2) Most open-source LLMs, e.g., CodeLlama-34b-Instruct and Llama-2-70b-chat, are less competitive than commercial LLMs, e.g., GPT-4, in complex games, yet the recently released Llama-3-70b-Instruct makes up for this shortcoming. In addition, code-pretraining greatly benefits strategic reasoning, while advanced reasoning methods such as Chain-of-Thought (CoT) and Tree-of-Thought (ToT) do not always help. We further characterize the game-theoretic properties of LLMs, such as equilibrium and Pareto Efficiency in repeated games. Detailed error profiles are provided for a better understanding of LLMs' behavior. We hope our research provides standardized protocols and serves as a foundation to spur further explorations in the strategic reasoning of LLMs.

Yanfeng Yang, Shuai Li, Yingjie Zhang et al.

Conditional independence (CI) testing is a fundamental task in modern statistics and machine learning. The conditional randomization test (CRT) was recently introduced to test whether two random variables, $X$ and $Y$, are conditionally independent given a potentially high-dimensional set of random variables, $Z$. The CRT operates exceptionally well under the assumption that the conditional distribution $X|Z$ is known. However, since this distribution is typically unknown in practice, accurately approximating it becomes crucial. In this paper, we propose using conditional diffusion models (CDMs) to learn the distribution of $X|Z$. Theoretically and empirically, it is shown that CDMs closely approximate the true conditional distribution. Furthermore, CDMs offer a more accurate approximation of $X|Z$ compared to GANs, potentially leading to a CRT that performs better than those based on GANs. To accommodate complex dependency structures, we utilize a computationally efficient classifier-based conditional mutual information (CMI) estimator as our test statistic. The proposed testing procedure performs effectively without requiring assumptions about specific distribution forms or feature dependencies, and is capable of handling mixed-type conditioning sets that include both continuous and discrete variables. Theoretical analysis shows that our proposed test achieves a valid control of the type I error. A series of experiments on synthetic data demonstrates that our new test effectively controls both type-I and type-II errors, even in high dimensional scenarios.