Fan Zhang

Hua Wang, Jinghao Lu, Fan Zhang

Deep learning has shown strong performance in time series forecasting tasks. However, issues such as missing values and anomalies in sequential data hinder its further development in prediction tasks. Previous research has primarily focused on extracting feature information from sequence data or addressing these suboptimal data as positive samples for knowledge transfer. A more effective approach would be to leverage these non-ideal negative samples to enhance event prediction. In response, this study highlights the advantages of non-ideal negative samples and proposes the IdealTSF framework, which integrates both ideal positive and negative samples for time series forecasting. IdealTSF consists of three progressive steps: pretraining, training, and optimization. It first pretrains the model by extracting knowledge from negative sample data, then transforms the sequence data into ideal positive samples during training. Additionally, a negative optimization mechanism with adversarial disturbances is applied. Extensive experiments demonstrate that negative sample data unlocks significant potential within the basic attention architecture for time series forecasting. Therefore, IdealTSF is particularly well-suited for applications with noisy samples or low-quality data.

Shuqing Shi, Xiaobin Wang, Zhiyou Yang et al.

We consider the trade-off problem between exploration and exploitation under finite discounted Markov Decision Process, where the state transition matrix of the underlying environment stays unknown. We propose a double Thompson sampling reinforcement learning algorithm(DTS) to solve this kind of problem. This algorithm achieves a total regret bound of $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(D\sqrt{SAT})$in time horizon $T$ with $S$ states, $A$ actions and diameter $D$. DTS consists of two parts, the first part is the traditional part where we apply the posterior sampling method on transition matrix based on prior distribution. In the second part, we employ a count-based posterior update method to balance between the local optimal action and the long-term optimal action in order to find the global optimal game value. We established a regret bound of $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{T}/S^{2})$. Which is by far the best regret bound for finite discounted Markov Decision Process to our knowledge. Numerical results proves the efficiency and superiority of our approach.

Viet Anh Nguyen, Fan Zhang, Shanshan Wang et al.

We propose a data-driven portfolio selection model that integrates side information, conditional estimation and robustness using the framework of distributionally robust optimization. Conditioning on the observed side information, the portfolio manager solves an allocation problem that minimizes the worst-case conditional risk-return trade-off, subject to all possible perturbations of the covariate-return probability distribution in an optimal transport ambiguity set. Despite the non-linearity of the objective function in the probability measure, we show that the distributionally robust portfolio allocation with side information problem can be reformulated as a finite-dimensional optimization problem. If portfolio decisions are made based on either the mean-variance or the mean-Conditional Value-at-Risk criterion, the resulting reformulation can be further simplified to second-order or semi-definite cone programs. Empirical studies in the US equity market demonstrate the advantage of our integrative framework against other benchmarks.

Viet Anh Nguyen, Fan Zhang, Jose Blanchet et al.

Conditional estimation given specific covariate values (i.e., local conditional estimation or functional estimation) is ubiquitously useful with applications in engineering, social and natural sciences. Existing data-driven non-parametric estimators mostly focus on structured homogeneous data (e.g., weakly independent and stationary data), thus they are sensitive to adversarial noise and may perform poorly under a low sample size. To alleviate these issues, we propose a new distributionally robust estimator that generates non-parametric local estimates by minimizing the worst-case conditional expected loss over all adversarial distributions in a Wasserstein ambiguity set. We show that despite being generally intractable, the local estimator can be efficiently found via convex optimization under broadly applicable settings, and it is robust to the corruption and heterogeneity of the data. Experiments with synthetic and MNIST datasets show the competitive performance of this new class of estimators.

Nian Si, Fan Zhang, Zhengyuan Zhou et al.

Policy learning using historical observational data is an important problem that has found widespread applications. Examples include selecting offers, prices, advertisements to send to customers, as well as selecting which medication to prescribe to a patient. However, existing literature rests on the crucial assumption that the future environment where the learned policy will be deployed is the same as the past environment that has generated the data -- an assumption that is often false or too coarse an approximation. In this paper, we lift this assumption and aim to learn a distributionally robust policy with incomplete observational data. We first present a policy evaluation procedure that allows us to assess how well the policy does under the worst-case environment shift. We then establish a central limit theorem type guarantee for this proposed policy evaluation scheme. Leveraging this evaluation scheme, we further propose a novel learning algorithm that is able to learn a policy that is robust to adversarial perturbations and unknown covariate shifts with a performance guarantee based on the theory of uniform convergence. Finally, we empirically test the effectiveness of our proposed algorithm in synthetic datasets and demonstrate that it provides the robustness that is missing using standard policy learning algorithms. We conclude the paper by providing a comprehensive application of our methods in the context of a real-world voting dataset.

Jose Blanchet, Yang Kang, Fan Zhang et al.

Data-driven Distributionally Robust Optimization (DD-DRO) via optimal transport has been shown to encompass a wide range of popular machine learning algorithms. The distributional uncertainty size is often shown to correspond to the regularization parameter. The type of regularization (e.g. the norm used to regularize) corresponds to the shape of the distributional uncertainty. We propose a data-driven robust optimization methodology to inform the transportation cost underlying the definition of the distributional uncertainty. We show empirically that this additional layer of robustification, which produces a method we called doubly robust data-driven distributionally robust optimization (DD-R-DRO), allows to enhance the generalization properties of regularized estimators while reducing testing error relative to state-of-the-art classifiers in a wide range of data sets.