Qiang Liu

Xing Han, Ziyang Tang, Joydeep Ghosh et al.

Conformal prediction is a simple and powerful tool that can quantify uncertainty without any distributional assumptions. Many existing methods only address the average coverage guarantee, which is not ideal compared to the stronger conditional coverage guarantee. Existing methods of approximating conditional coverage require additional models or time effort, which makes them not easy to scale. In this paper, we propose a modified non-conformity score by leveraging the local approximation of the conditional distribution using kernel density estimation. The modified score inherits the spirit of split conformal methods, which is simple and efficient and can scale to high dimensional settings. We also proposed a unified framework that brings together our method and several state-of-the-art. We perform extensive empirical evaluations: results measured by both average and conditional coverage confirm the advantage of our method.

Jun Han, Qiang Liu

Stein variational gradient decent (SVGD) has been shown to be a powerful approximate inference algorithm for complex distributions. However, the standard SVGD requires calculating the gradient of the target density and cannot be applied when the gradient is unavailable. In this work, we develop a gradient-free variant of SVGD (GF-SVGD), which replaces the true gradient with a surrogate gradient, and corrects the induced bias by re-weighting the gradients in a proper form. We show that our GF-SVGD can be viewed as the standard SVGD with a special choice of kernel, and hence directly inherits the theoretical properties of SVGD. We shed insights on the empirical choice of the surrogate gradient and propose an annealed GF-SVGD that leverages the idea of simulated annealing to improve the performance on high dimensional complex distributions. Empirical studies show that our method consistently outperforms a number of recent advanced gradient-free MCMC methods.